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Value Investing and Longer Term Investing Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

09-03-2015 , 08:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
I read the financials
You bastard! That is cheating!
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09-04-2015 , 02:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keloika
I read a book "The Incredible Shrinking Alpha" which is basically arguing that it is almost impossible to generate excess return beyond that which is explained by factor models (e.g. Fama-French). One of the cause, they say, is the rapidly increasing level of competition (there's less dumb money than there used to be, more information is available, investors are better educated, etc.). And of course, they use the poor (and decreasing) excess returns of mutual funds as evidence.

I was tempted to learn more about securities analysis, but this book makes me uncertain. Perhaps I should just invest based on simple factors.

Can you argue for the other case (i.e. it's not that hard to generate an excess return)?
I believe that the price of a stock is off by up to 10000%. Thus, a stock that is priced at $20 might be worth $20000 or nothing. The price you see is only the latest price of a seller that is willing to sell. The bid is the price one buyer is willing to buy at. The ask is the price a seller is willing to sell at.

The value of a company is basically the present value of all future dividends. JOY global dropped 15% in one day, that means all its factories are suddenly worth 15% less? No it was mispriced before and it is mispriced now and it will always be mispriced.
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09-07-2015 , 05:00 PM
http://www.fastgraphs.com/
anyone using this? i saw a lot of contributors on seekingalpha using them so i checked it out. provides pretty great comprehensive perspective on a companies earnings, dividends, expectations, value, etc.
im checking it out... signed up for the free trial. seems like good value.
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09-08-2015 , 07:44 AM
Hey guys, long-time lurker, looking for some critique my three very simple theses:

FCAU:

- Strong stable of brands
- Enterprise Multiple of 3.3
- Spinoff of Ferrari will unlock value
- For half the price of Tesla you can buy Fiat, Chrysler, JEEP, Alfa Romeo, Dodge, Masserati AND Ferrari AND a parts business worth ~2b
- CEO is a BOSS

MOV

- Strong stable of brands
- Enterprise multiple of 6
- The market is wrong: smart watches are an opportunity, not a threat
- Smart watches will trend towards a traditional analogue face with 'smart' features hidden
- I would wear a Movado but I wouldn't touch an Apple watch
- Company has been buying back shares

WFM

- Enterprise multiple of 8
- Stock has been beaten down
- Still has a strong brand and following
- Smaller footprint stores will be a huge success
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09-08-2015 , 01:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Sold AGO, 4 year 150% gain. Will probably jump back in right before earnings, hoping that it'll go down harder.

Bought BLBD.

Current positions: ACAS, ACW, BLBD, CHK, HOS, MCGC, OUTR, PRSC, REGI
First major shifting of positions in a long time:

Goodbye BLBD, MCGC, CHK. I admit error in BLBD and CHK.
Hello PFLT and SLP

Current positions: ACAS, ACW, HOS, PFLT, SLP, OUTR, PRSC, REGI
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09-09-2015 , 11:41 AM
any opinions on BLK being a buy here?



assuming market doesnt enter a bear market the fundamentals look good.
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09-11-2015 , 02:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
First major shifting of positions in a long time:

Goodbye BLBD, MCGC, CHK. I admit error in BLBD and CHK.
Hello PFLT and SLP

Current positions: ACAS, ACW, HOS, PFLT, SLP, OUTR, PRSC, REGI
Sold REGI. Two year, 75% gain, which offsets the losses from BLBD and CHK somewhat.

Hello CENT.

Current positions: ACAS, ACW, HOS, PFLT, SLP, OUTR, PRSC, CENT

Probably not changing anything else unless I eat a margin call.
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09-11-2015 , 02:42 PM
Also added KCLI
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09-11-2015 , 05:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Also added KCLI
Rationale?
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09-12-2015 , 01:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMVP
WFM

- Enterprise multiple of 8
- Stock has been beaten down
- Still has a strong brand and following
- Smaller footprint stores will be a huge success
On WFM:
-They built out pretty aggressively on the smaller footprint stores without thinking about cannibalization that much. Finally came out and said there'll be part cannibalization.
-Krogers has just been smoking them and that's the reason why stock has been beaten down. The industry dynamic is somewhat shifting, as everyone is selling the good ol' 'organic' stuff now. You know what people don't buy at Whole Foods? The goods that actually make stores money (sodas, snacks, candies, cigs).
-Management team: you also missed the crappy management part, although if you actually have any insight / conviction into a change happening here then this could be a stellar buy. They've just crapped the bed so many times on strategy that it's hard to give them credit for the growth strategies going forward.
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09-12-2015 , 06:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Rationale?
Per jb, I also bought 249 shares for the upcoming 250 to 1 reverse split buyout, which come December appears to be roughly $52 and change. Seems like an easy dime and a nickel for doing nothing.
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09-14-2015 , 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Per jb...

I'm fairly new to value investing. What does this mean?
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09-15-2015 , 03:36 PM
built stake in Ladbrokes PLC to 8% of liferoll at 95p today- if they get a decent website they should be worth treble
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09-16-2015 , 09:38 PM
sold out the rest of my POST today. basically doubled off the lows from last august. Id revisit if it pulls back a bit. good company, good management
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09-17-2015 , 12:21 AM
Any thoughts on Mercado Libre?
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09-17-2015 , 09:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
Any thoughts on Mercado Libre?
Yes.
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09-17-2015 , 02:10 PM
this is going to go badly for you
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09-17-2015 , 07:06 PM
Well I like their business model long-term and online shopping is basically nothing in most of Latin America right now so they have a lot of room to grow.

Unfortunately most of these countries being hit pretty hard by recession right now. Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, etc....Then there is the currency volatility which is another gamble for a US investor.

They seem to have far more vertical potential than say Amazon or Ebay. Own the payment processor and just started a shipping service.

I like the business and all that but I guess what I am asking has more to do with macro conditions and barrier to entry for a competitor.
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09-17-2015 , 07:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
Well I like their business model long-term and online shopping is basically nothing in most of Latin America right now so they have a lot of room to grow.

Unfortunately most of these countries being hit pretty hard by recession right now. Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, etc....Then there is the currency volatility which is another gamble for a US investor.

They seem to have far more vertical potential than say Amazon or Ebay. Own the payment processor and just started a shipping service.

I like the business and all that but I guess what I am asking has more to do with macro conditions and barrier to entry for a competitor.
You might want to think about numbers.
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09-21-2015 , 12:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Per jb, I also bought 249 shares for the upcoming 250 to 1 reverse split buyout, which come December appears to be roughly $52 and change. Seems like an easy dime and a nickel for doing nothing.
i haven't personally looked at this one but there is more risk here than you think. If too many people try to take advantage of this there is a chance it gets cancelled. See what happened at Hancock Fabrics for an example. Theres a reason this spread remains so large.
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09-23-2015 , 11:00 PM
guys i think IDT is worth a look, company announced they are spitting the company into 3 pieces in 2016. Sum of the parts looks interesting here.
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09-24-2015 , 09:28 AM
Anyone think Amazon's handmade thing could kill Etsy, and boost amazon significantly?
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09-24-2015 , 10:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Sold REGI. Two year, 75% gain, which offsets the losses from BLBD and CHK somewhat.

Hello CENT.

Current positions: ACAS, ACW, HOS, PFLT, SLP, OUTR, PRSC, CENT

Probably not changing anything else unless I eat a margin call.
why CENT? I looked at this before when their plan was to consolidate everything under one OMS or something like that when stock was hovering between $7-$9. I understood falcone took a stake around $10 at some point. what's the story now?
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09-24-2015 , 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
sold out the rest of my POST today. basically doubled off the lows from last august. Id revisit if it pulls back a bit. good company, good management
gratz. wish i did a bet on stiritz at 40 now.
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09-24-2015 , 10:24 AM
Boost AMZN, no

Help kill Etsy, maybe

Amazon just won't leave anyone alone

AMZN is the bully that never stops bullying

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...ons-handm.aspx
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