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Old 12-17-2011, 11:47 PM   #101
Xaston
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick View Post
Any thoughts on long-term prospects for GLW?
Of all the stocks I don't own, this is one of the two I'm spending the most time looking into lately. I'm still too scared about the total square footage of TVs sold dropping as more and more people have their own personal tablet.

I'm also very long right now with a smallish cash position which is also keeping me from buying them currently.
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Old 12-17-2011, 11:57 PM   #102
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by Xaston View Post
Of all the stocks I don't own, this is one of the two I'm spending the most time looking into lately. I'm still too scared about the total square footage of TVs sold dropping as more and more people have their own personal tablet.

I'm also very long right now with a smallish cash position which is also keeping me from buying them currently.
What's your portfolio look like?

Also, I started going through ITIC's 10-k and will drop some of my thoughts soon.
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Old 12-18-2011, 12:05 AM   #103
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

I'm long 10 companies for a total of 20X, short 5 companies for a total of 2.5X, and have a 3X cash position. Long positions are all 1X - 3.5X in size.

Don't know if that's what you were looking for. Named my biggest positions earlier in this thread, except for a couple microcaps that my lips are sealed on for the time being. In addition to those I also have some BRK.B and SPA.

Last edited by Xaston; 12-18-2011 at 12:15 AM.
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Old 12-18-2011, 01:01 PM   #104
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by Xaston View Post
I'm long 10 companies for a total of 20X, short 5 companies for a total of 2.5X, and have a 3X cash position. Long positions are all 1X - 3.5X in size.

Don't know if that's what you were looking for. Named my biggest positions earlier in this thread, except for a couple microcaps that my lips are sealed on for the time being. In addition to those I also have some BRK.B and SPA.
That's fine. I was looking for specific names but I'll just look back through the thread.
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Old 12-18-2011, 06:30 PM   #105
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by Xaston View Post
Of all the stocks I don't own, this is one of the two I'm spending the most time looking into lately. I'm still too scared about the total square footage of TVs sold dropping as more and more people have their own personal tablet.
You do know that tablets use glass, right? A bit less, of course, since there isn't much of a market for 82" tablets...
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Old 12-18-2011, 10:31 PM   #106
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

I had GLW until they slashed their glass outlook. I would be very happy to get back into a long position if the long term prospects looked better. The gorilla glass is expanding but with the LCD tv market declining does the smart phone market have enough to replace it?

Right now I think I would be comfortable putting a long time horizon on any holding I acquire. The Tv market will probably be rebounding and smart phones continuing to go up. Another less talked about aspect is if apple makes a smart tv(which some speculators think will come out next year) that opens up an entirely new market.
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Old 12-18-2011, 10:59 PM   #107
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by allstarrt View Post
I had GLW until they slashed their glass outlook. I would be very happy to get back into a long position if the long term prospects looked better. The gorilla glass is expanding but with the LCD tv market declining does the smart phone market have enough to replace it?

Right now I think I would be comfortable putting a long time horizon on any holding I acquire. The Tv market will probably be rebounding and smart phones continuing to go up. Another less talked about aspect is if apple makes a smart tv(which some speculators think will come out next year) that opens up an entirely new market.
I'm kind of have the same thoughts except....

Apple could easily go with another manufacturer and they tend to go with plastic instead of glass in their products (not sure if plastics are a reasonable choice for large screens, but I work indirectly with a manufacturer* that has developed a scratch proof acryllic that can handle a wide range of temperatures, which makes me a bit nervous about gorilla glass and glass in general)

Plus I don't see the market for smart tv's (I also didn't see the market for tablets taking off, so you can probably safely ignore).

On the other hand, it isn't like they are going to stop making windshields for cars and trucks either way and they are cheap by most measures.

*privately held, damnit.
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Old 12-22-2011, 03:34 AM   #108
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

All, here is a write-up on Dell I put together today. If all goes well I may pitch this in interviews with buy-side shops so I'd appreciate your thoughts if you have time. A few things to say up front:
- I was looking for a "value play" with a P/E under 10, also needed to be market cap over $1B.
- Time frame is 2 years.
- Although I am interested in whether you agree with me (i.e. whether you think Dell is a buy or not), I am more interested in the framework of my analysis and the basis investment thesis. Please comment on anything I missed and poke holes in my analysis.

DELL:

Price (as of 12/21/11): $14.70
Target Price: $20 (+36%)

Business Summary:
Dell is a leading integrated technology solutions provider in the IT industry offering a range of technology product categories, including mobility products, desktop personal computers, software and peripherals, servers and networking products, storage, and services. It operates in four global business segments: Large Enterprise, Public, Small and Medium Business (SMB), and Consumer.

Investment Thesis:
- Recently Dell has made a deliberate decision to transform the company from a direct retail PC manufacturer to a vertically-integrated corporate IT servicer. This shift has led to a focus on earnings growth rather than revenue growth by shifting its business mix away from its lower-margin Consumer businesses and toward its higher-margin Enterprise and SMB businesses. This mix shift will lead to an expected 43% increase in GAAP operating income for FY12 and will drive further earnings growth going forward.
- Decreased top-line from this shift should be mitigated by Dell’s increased focus in emerging markets where it has traditionally been underrepresented. BRIC revenues grew 25% YoY in 3Q and non-U.S. sales should surpass 50% of total revenues within the next year.
- Management’s commitment to share repurchases representing 20% of its market cap, strong balance sheet with $4.54 net cash per share (more than 30% of its current price), and forward P/E of 7.3 (over 40% discount to its five year average) creates a floor for the stock.

Disagreement with Street:
- I believe the market has wrongly punished Dell for lower-than-expected revenue guidance and is not rewarding it for stronger-than expected earnings growth, as evidenced by its 6% sell-off in November upon announcing Q3’s top-line miss but bottom-line beat.
- The Street is uncertain if there is room for further margin expansion given its stabilization during the last three quarters and stiff economic headwinds in the U.S. and Western Europe. I believe margins are sustainable given they represent a fundamental business mix shift which is not complete, and could even increase from Dell’s exit from netbooks.

Risks:
- Dell’s turnaround may never materialize if it fails to obtain a powerful presence and expertise in the IT Services, software, and data centers markets and does not appropriately compete with new competitors.
- The core PC market (still 55% of revenues) is suffering headwinds from average pricing declines, minimal differentiation among competitors, and cannibalization from tablets in the consumer sector.
- Hard disk drive costs could increase in the short term from the supply shortage resulting from the floods in Thailand. Dell and other manufacturers would probably not be able to pass these rising costs onto consumers.

Scenario Analysis:

Base:
$20.05 (+36%)
60% probability
9x FY 2014 EPS of $2.23
Revenues +1%
Flat margins

Upside:
$27.76 (+89%)
20% probability
11x 2013 EPS of $2.52
Revenues +3%
Margins up 50bps

Downside:
$12.72 (-10%)
20% probability
7x 20123 EPS of $1.82
Revenues -1%
Margins down 100bps

Comparables:
Dell trades cheaply compared to its major competitors on all metrics. I believe a ftm of 9 is more appropriate given Dell’s earnings growth profile.
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Old 12-22-2011, 12:17 PM   #109
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Biesterfield View Post
All, here is a write-up on Dell I put together today. If all goes well I may pitch this in interviews with buy-side shops so I'd appreciate your thoughts if you have time. A few things to say up front:
- I was looking for a "value play" with a P/E under 10, also needed to be market cap over $1B.
- Time frame is 2 years.
- Although I am interested in whether you agree with me (i.e. whether you think Dell is a buy or not), I am more interested in the framework of my analysis and the basis investment thesis. Please comment on anything I missed and poke holes in my analysis.

DELL:

Price (as of 12/21/11): $14.70
Target Price: $20 (+36%)

Business Summary:
Dell is a leading integrated technology solutions provider in the IT industry offering a range of technology product categories, including mobility products, desktop personal computers, software and peripherals, servers and networking products, storage, and services. It operates in four global business segments: Large Enterprise, Public, Small and Medium Business (SMB), and Consumer.

Investment Thesis:
- Recently Dell has made a deliberate decision to transform the company from a direct retail PC manufacturer to a vertically-integrated corporate IT servicer. This shift has led to a focus on earnings growth rather than revenue growth by shifting its business mix away from its lower-margin Consumer businesses and toward its higher-margin Enterprise and SMB businesses. This mix shift will lead to an expected 43% increase in GAAP operating income for FY12 and will drive further earnings growth going forward.
- Decreased top-line from this shift should be mitigated by Dell’s increased focus in emerging markets where it has traditionally been underrepresented. BRIC revenues grew 25% YoY in 3Q and non-U.S. sales should surpass 50% of total revenues within the next year.
- Management’s commitment to share repurchases representing 20% of its market cap, strong balance sheet with $4.54 net cash per share (more than 30% of its current price), and forward P/E of 7.3 (over 40% discount to its five year average) creates a floor for the stock.

Disagreement with Street:
- I believe the market has wrongly punished Dell for lower-than-expected revenue guidance and is not rewarding it for stronger-than expected earnings growth, as evidenced by its 6% sell-off in November upon announcing Q3’s top-line miss but bottom-line beat.
- The Street is uncertain if there is room for further margin expansion given its stabilization during the last three quarters and stiff economic headwinds in the U.S. and Western Europe. I believe margins are sustainable given they represent a fundamental business mix shift which is not complete, and could even increase from Dell’s exit from netbooks.

Risks:
- Dell’s turnaround may never materialize if it fails to obtain a powerful presence and expertise in the IT Services, software, and data centers markets and does not appropriately compete with new competitors.
- The core PC market (still 55% of revenues) is suffering headwinds from average pricing declines, minimal differentiation among competitors, and cannibalization from tablets in the consumer sector.
- Hard disk drive costs could increase in the short term from the supply shortage resulting from the floods in Thailand. Dell and other manufacturers would probably not be able to pass these rising costs onto consumers.

Scenario Analysis:

Base:
$20.05 (+36%)
60% probability
9x FY 2014 EPS of $2.23
Revenues +1%
Flat margins

Upside:
$27.76 (+89%)
20% probability
11x 2013 EPS of $2.52
Revenues +3%
Margins up 50bps

Downside:
$12.72 (-10%)
20% probability
7x 20123 EPS of $1.82
Revenues -1%
Margins down 100bps

Comparables:
Dell trades cheaply compared to its major competitors on all metrics. I believe a ftm of 9 is more appropriate given Dell’s earnings growth profile.
Haven't had time to read your post thoroughly, but I've had conversations with people who have pitched me DELL. I'll read it through later but...
Why is it better than HPQ? If I'm going to be in the PC industry (which I'm in), why would I own it over INTC or MSFT both of whom have stronger businesses and also trade cheaply and offer nice dividends. The hard drive guys (stx and wdc) seem to be really cheap as well (although not as much now since they popped from their lows earlier this year).
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Old 12-22-2011, 01:48 PM   #110
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Well I think the answer to that is valuation. DELL's trailing and forward P/Es are 7.6 and 7.3. HPQ's are 7.7./5.7. EV/EBITDA is 3.8 to 4.5 in Dell's favor. And Dell is actually growing earnings. While both companies are going through a bit of an identity crisis, Dell has much less uncertainty given HP's musical chairs in management lately and lack of strategic direction given their will-they-or-wont-they spinoff of the PC division. Maybe Meg Whitman will come in and right the ship but we will have to see.

Intel and Microsoft are less direct comps but again, the valuation is a bit richer. INTC at 10.4/10.0 and MSFT is 9.4/8.5. I personally really like MSFT but I wanted something simpler to pitch which is part of the reason I chose DELL. I agree Seagate and Western Dig are cheap too much I guess there is just more uncertainty surrounding the Thailand floods for those names.
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Old 12-22-2011, 06:52 PM   #111
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

I like the basic outline (business overall, thesis, difference w/ street, risks, scenario analysis) but each one needs a bit more substance.

business overall: i'd include %'s
thesis: i'd shorten each main point and add bullet points (you kinda consolidate it)
scenario analysis: I'd probably like to see a SOTP using NOPAT or a wtd avg margin x p/e. i'd also like to see how u get ur revenue growth #.

oh and gl!
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Old 12-22-2011, 07:15 PM   #112
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Why not use FCF for your denominator instead of EBITDA? FCF is much more important/relavent/accurate imo.

Also Michael Dell's $150 million purchase of shares in March is another reason I would rather have DELL than HPQ.

Last edited by Xaston; 12-22-2011 at 07:26 PM.
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Old 12-22-2011, 07:22 PM   #113
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Biesterfield View Post
All, here is a write-up on Dell I put together today. If all goes well I may pitch this in interviews with buy-side shops so I'd appreciate your thoughts if you have time. A few things to say up front:
- I was looking for a "value play" with a P/E under 10, also needed to be market cap over $1B.
- Time frame is 2 years.
- Although I am interested in whether you agree with me (i.e. whether you think Dell is a buy or not), I am more interested in the framework of my analysis and the basis investment thesis. Please comment on anything I missed and poke holes in my analysis.

[
I think this isn't bad for an undergrad if the main part of the thesis is right (shift to higher margin business). However, there are a few things that could make this a little better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Biesterfield View Post

Scenario Analysis:

Base:
$20.05 (+36%)
60% probability
9x FY 2014 EPS of $2.23
Revenues +1%
Flat margins

Upside:
$27.76 (+89%)
20% probability
11x 2013 EPS of $2.52
Revenues +3%
Margins up 50bps

Downside:
$12.72 (-10%)
20% probability
7x 20123 EPS of $1.82
Revenues -1%
Margins down 100bps

Comparables:
Dell trades cheaply compared to its major competitors on all metrics. I believe a ftm of 9 is more appropriate given Dell’s earnings growth profile.
I would use the same EPS estimate for my different cases. Also, I would try to reverse engineer what the growth rate implied by the current price and compare it to your implied growth rate. If my thesis was margin expansion, I would model a new "normal EPS" based upon higher margins and compare this to the current EPS to get my growth rate.

I don't know too much about Dell's business so I can't offer any insight there, but those are a few things I would do from a presentation standpoint.
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Old 12-22-2011, 07:48 PM   #114
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Thanks for the input.

Good point on the free cash flow. Dell's FCF is very strong, much higher than net income past 2 years. I did a 4-yr DCF using a 2% terminal value and 10% WACC and get a pretty big share price of $36, which is 148% upside. Chose not to include it because it didn't match with my P/E analysis but maybe the free cash flow generation is worth a mention.

When reverse engineering for a growth rate, are you referring to something DCF-based? If not, how exactly do you do it?

Oh, and this is for grad school recruiting (MBA). Not sure if that changes things.
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Old 12-22-2011, 08:03 PM   #115
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Also, I started going through ITIC's 10-k and will drop some of my thoughts soon.
It looks like it could be cheap, but I have a few concerns. I think one of the main issues is how much are their securities worth? They have a large amount of "Obligations of states and political subdivisions" which I would think would generate a good amount of interest income yet they only collected a total of 887k on a balance of 126m for total investments for the quarter. Also, they had net revenues from premiums written of 24m and only reserved 350k as a provision. This seems low to me but I don't know much about the industry to get a sense of what's high or low.

There should be some good upside here if the housing market recovers. I think they are concentrated in NC. Any insights into that market? There might also be some upside if they retool their cap structure and have access to some cheap debt. It looks like they upped their share repurchasing which is nice.
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Old 12-22-2011, 08:09 PM   #116
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by Xaston View Post
Why not use FCF for your denominator instead of EBITDA? FCF is much more important/relavent/accurate imo.

Also Michael Dell's $150 million purchase of shares in March is another reason I would rather have DELL than HPQ.
FCF is levered and EBITDA is not.
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Old 12-22-2011, 08:13 PM   #117
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

I don't think I know what you're saying.
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Old 12-22-2011, 08:19 PM   #118
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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I don't think I know what you're saying.
Which post are you referring to?
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Old 12-22-2011, 08:23 PM   #119
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by Biesterfield View Post
Thanks for the input.

Good point on the free cash flow. Dell's FCF is very strong, much higher than net income past 2 years. I did a 4-yr DCF using a 2% terminal value and 10% WACC and get a pretty big share price of $36, which is 148% upside. Chose not to include it because it didn't match with my P/E analysis but maybe the free cash flow generation is worth a mention.

When reverse engineering for a growth rate, are you referring to something DCF-based? If not, how exactly do you do it?

Oh, and this is for grad school recruiting (MBA). Not sure if that changes things.
I usually just do Graham's formula, but I find 2g to be a little aggressive. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Graham_formula

I would think as an MBA you would have to consider the competitive landscape of the business they are trying to expand more. I'm not sure where you are looking to interview or how in depth this research should go, but it's something to consider.
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Old 12-22-2011, 08:31 PM   #120
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by DOOM@ALL_CAPS View Post
Which post are you referring to?
this one:

Quote:
FCF is levered and EBITDA is not.
Also re: ITIC reserves, as I understand it title insurance is quite different from other forms of insurance in that your risk is actually quite low, but you have to spend a large amount of money, relatively speaking, to make sure that the title is in fact not defective, but once you have done that your risk is extremely small.
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Old 12-22-2011, 08:39 PM   #121
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Let's say two companies have assets of 100 and earn 10%. A has no debt and generates fcf and ebitda of 10. B has half debt and half equity. B generates ebitda of 10 but a lower fcf due to interest expense.
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Old 12-22-2011, 09:00 PM   #122
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

Ok but if I'm looking at DELL and comparing it to it's most similar company, HPQ, where both companies have similar debt to equity ratios, and I am looking at investing in the common stock and not bonds, I still think I'm more concerned with the FCF than the EBITDA.

Am I stupid? I also feel like if we're dividing by EV and not market cap that the capital structure is already taken into account, but I am probably being stupid again.
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Old 12-22-2011, 09:04 PM   #123
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

If they have similar debt loads you should be fine. But think about how my example would affect roe and p/e and p/fcf
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Old 12-22-2011, 09:24 PM   #124
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by PurpleStars View Post

Some of my picks have been URZ , DNN And CCJ . A large % of my portfolio is in uranium mining and i have thus far done quite well over the past couple months . Opinions ?
I own CCJ and long on it. Its been pretty tough environment for past 6 months after Fukushima but I know Uranium will rebound. Prices seem attractive now. I remember when I held CCJ at $40/share and day after day articles came out on how strong the uranium sector was. Obv it was a peak. Now, prices are close to bottom (~17 was for CCJ) and there's no rah rah rah shish koom bah articles. Seems like a great time to buy to me. Uraniums not going anywhere and will rebound.
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Old 12-23-2011, 12:35 AM   #125
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Re: Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

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Originally Posted by DOOM@ALL_CAPS View Post
If they have similar debt loads you should be fine. But think about how my example would affect roe and p/e and p/fcf
You could have just said "read Greenblatt's books."
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