Value Investing and Longer Term Investing - Page 33 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

if anyone saw CNBC yesterday, I thought Einhorn has a really solid argument for buying MU (Micron). The basic storyline was the Western Digital/Seagate hard drive thesis applied to the DRAM sector (industry consolidation = higher margins going forward).

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11-22-2013 , 09:33 PM

#803

chipchip

banned

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,128

Isnt there the danger of samsung flooding the market if their phones stop doing as well?

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11-23-2013 , 11:41 AM

#804

mixt

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 53

Quote:

Originally Posted by BCI23

That story holds merit, in the short term the DRAM market is very profitable as DRAM is a mature technology which is faced with supply constraints.

In the long term however considerable risk exists around new technologies which could reduce demand such as 3D-NAND which Samsung is leading (Samsung also currently have around 50% DRAM market share).

Micron has more than doubled in price since the beginning of the year and even a technology fund I'm in was talking about this and buying up Micron much earlier this year. Given we are in a thread talking about Value investing I'd suggest that you consider how much of the anticipated growth is priced in.

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11-26-2013 , 11:53 PM

#805

budapestexpress

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 81

Been watching ACW and it's up around 10% since two and half weeks ago. I haven't noticed what caused it to rise, aside from the market in general. They seemed to make an announcement announcing a new product that increased durability of wheels, but market didn't change the next day (already priced in?).

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11-27-2013 , 12:04 AM

#806

BCI23

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 569

Quote:

Originally Posted by budapestexpress

Been watching ACW and it's up around 10% since two and half weeks ago. I haven't noticed what caused it to rise, aside from the market in general.

Variance. Coliseum and Cletus have continued to buy on the downswing. Nonetheless, i still have no position.

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11-27-2013 , 02:46 AM

#807

chipchip

banned

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,128

did you read their latest quarterly call transcript? Thought it was interesting.

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12-05-2013 , 08:30 AM

#808

ahnuld

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 17,592

bought shares in smallcap nhc.to yesterday via private placement. looks like a good undervalued growth story.

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12-05-2013 , 10:55 AM

#809

Pun Intended

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 849

Quote:

Originally Posted by ahnuld

bought shares in smallcap nhc.to yesterday via private placement. looks like a good undervalued growth story.

Any thoughts on the conference call for MXG a couple days back?

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12-05-2013 , 11:21 PM

#810

Tyrannic

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,896

Quote:

Originally Posted by ahnuld

bought shares in smallcap nhc.to yesterday via private placement. looks like a good undervalued growth story.

Thanks for posting.

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12-05-2013 , 11:42 PM

#811

ahnuld

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 17,592

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pun Intended

Any thoughts on the conference call for MXG a couple days back?

yeah, I think its buyers remorse. From what I heard the inquiry was ongoing before the transaction was finalized so it wasnt news to the buyers.

Mgmt also sounded pretty motivated to sell all the pieces, using terms like dynamic pricing to describe their asset sales.

I think it happens with the total value a bit north of 4$, just might take longer now.

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12-11-2013 , 12:34 PM

#812

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Cutting BKS and going with the ZGNX idea instead.

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12-13-2013 , 07:33 PM

#813

IamIsildur

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 180

can someone pls post a link where u can get good cashflow data from ?

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12-16-2013 , 01:55 PM

#814

DOOM@ALL_CAPS

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 1,326

Quote:

Originally Posted by IamIsildur

can someone pls post a link where u can get good cashflow data from ?

http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml

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12-18-2013 , 12:55 AM

#815

icetonez

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 613

Anyone long AXTI? Trades at about NCAV. The business was hit hard by SOI technology and is at multi-year lows, but it sounds like it may have it bottom and things might improve in 2014.

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12-18-2013 , 12:58 PM

#816

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by icetonez

Anyone long AXTI? Trades at about NCAV. The business was hit hard by SOI technology and is at multi-year lows, but it sounds like it may have it bottom and things might improve in 2014.

I passed on them awhile ago because they are more or less a speculation on germanium prices, and their transition to the solar panel business makes them even more speculative.

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12-20-2013 , 06:01 PM

#817

ahnuld

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 17,592

Quote:

Originally Posted by ahnuld

tmus is a good value pick at these levels. Ive owned it since 21 and was shocked it traded down today. due to nice run I guess. but subs where huge and the thing trades at .5-1 turns cheaper than att and vz to begin with before the numbers today. ebitda estimates going up based on the sub adds. have the dish takeout potential. new strategy working great. I dont see whats not to like.

bump for im good

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12-20-2013 , 07:59 PM

#818

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,410

Quote:

Originally Posted by ahnuld

bump for im good

Yes, you are.

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12-21-2013 , 01:56 AM

#819

Jaysick88*

journeyman

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 283

Quote:

Originally Posted by ahnuld

bump for im good

LOyalist was also a nice pickup per your blog that you never posted here. Between PRSC at ~16 and LOY at .45 you have made me a happy man!

Nice call on TMUS.

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12-21-2013 , 11:26 AM

#820

de captain

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 5,514

Quote:

Originally Posted by ahnuld

bump for im good

Please post on your blog more frequently

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12-21-2013 , 01:13 PM

#821

NYC_Jon

adept

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 772

Quote:

Originally Posted by de captain

Please post on your blog more frequently

Seconded

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12-21-2013 , 04:41 PM

#822

budapestexpress

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 81

I can third that I've visited it at least ten times since November and still see that DAMN November 5th update.

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12-22-2013 , 10:45 AM

#823

ahnuld

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 17,592

im on vacation this week so I should be able to get some writing done in the back half.

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12-23-2013 , 04:54 AM

#824

PatInTheHat

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 3,184

Quote:

Originally Posted by de captain

Please post on your blog more frequently

Would someone mind linking me? Sadly cannot find

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12-23-2013 , 06:22 AM

#825

twalf

adept

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 739

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatInTheHat

Would someone mind linking me? Sadly cannot find

It's in his profile. Not sure if blogs are allowed to be posted in threads.

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