Quote:
Originally Posted by Truthsayer
chipchip,
The 1970s called and they want their electric car optimism back.
So you think that long term trends don't get weaker the further they go? You don't believe in substitution? You don't think that as something gets more expensive people will be ever more willing to explore alternatives?
I mean yeah at current price levels electric cars aren't all THAT viable. At the same time they are looking a hell of a lot more viable going forward than they have at any point in the past. Much like oil shale they'll get more and more interesting to consumers as oil prices go further and further.
And that is why oil prices cannot simply balloon out. The Chinese will not allow their people to simply consume as much oil as Americans do, because their air is already gas mask worthy. Within 5-10 years expect to see them get even more serious about the environment (they're actually already quite serious). Also the Chinese are facing the biggest demographic nightmare in human history because of their one child policies, the main spear point of which will have hit them long before 2030.
Dude. Long range forecasts are toilet paper. They just are. They are right about as often as random chance would be. This is because the world is complicated and there are many, many variables. Long range is anything greater than 3-5 years. Medium range forecasts are usually off by a significant amount. (but still better than nothing)