Hey all, quick question for strat for my Roth IRA. I currently have a small amount of money (10-20k) in a Roth IRA that is invested in etfs. Basically have it spread between some foreign and mostly domestic stocks. Ugh any advice if I think a recession is coming?

My goal for the Roth has no relevance to retirement. I have a funded 401k and plan to buy a house within the next 1-5 years. My Roth IRA is basically only an investment tool where I’m using the money as a down payment for a house... and I’m putting in the max contribution going forward.

If I think a recession is coming, should I switch to bearish etfs/ long short etfs. I honestly don’t mind missing out on gains if the bullish market continues bc I honestly believe it’s going to end soon (within next year). Should I just add a bearish etf or long short etf? Just wondering what the play is. If I lost 10-20% of my portfolio due to a recession, I would be slightly bummed as I feel it’s extremely likely a bear market is currently developing. Thanks for any advice on options to spread my money. I don’t want to go straight to cash or bonds.

Guess we'll see what happens! For the record, the last time I had a debate in this thread was because I said WTW was a good buy at around $13 because Oprah got involved and people disagreed with me. It's at $69 now. So tread carefully!

You should be investing your Roth as aggressively as possible. Worst case is you lose a year or two of contributions. Since the contribution limits are so low you need early aggressive returns if you ever want to build up a significant balance. Basically there's more to consider than a simple EV given your feel of the market. That's not even considering that trying to time a significant market downturn is hardly ever a good long term investment strategy.

https://morningconsult.com/form/nike-dial-test/

"The results indicate that black Americans, Democrats and younger generations were much more receptive to Kapernick’s involvement and message than white Americans and Republicans. Additionally, Nike users had a more favorable view throughout than non-Nike users."

Guess we'll have to see if they would be able to accelerate topline growth in the next 5 years (which is imo still to small to see the full effect of this campaign and/or direction aka politicizing)

This is such a classic example of overthinking.

Nike is the standard. Everyone wants to wear Nike. They have a near flawless marketing record going on 40 years.

What you gonna do, rock some Under Armour or Asics kicks?

With the ath-leisure trend showing no signs of slowing down Nike is one of the easiest longs in the entire market.

The problem is that they included people in the poll who already had a 0% chance of buying any Nike products over the next 12 months. It really doesn't matter whether my opinion of Nike went through the roof or crashed. Same as my opinion of NASCAR riding or falling doesn't matter. Worrying about total addressable market doesn't work as an investment guide.

Obviously, short AMZN because Trump doesn't like Bezos?

The tariff thing matters a ton.

I have an 6+ month emergency fund that is currently in my capital one savings account at 1% APR.

Thinking about moving this to Vanguard money market OR taking half and putting it into a bond's mutual fund.

The money market has slightly better returns than 1%. Was thinking bonds as well since it also has slightly higher returns.

Thoughts?

Short term 3mo-6mo treasuries or muni bonds?

half 12-month cd at marcus (gs bank) at 2.55% (I'm assuming 6+ months is the amount of months you saved in your emergency fund, not when you'll need it)

half at a decent liquid online savings at 1.85%

I've looked at this before. We owned SRC pre-spin for the spin, but as the details kept changing we got more skiddish. We view the CEO of SRC as incredibly capable from a financial engineering perspective (in a good light) which is why they were able to get SRC out of their unable to fund raise unable to grow vicious cycle.

When you look at the details for the deal, the fact that SRC decided to move their equity exposure up in the cap str theoretically to preferreds made me a bit nervous. It makes sense because why not take a high yld pfd there. The equity is probably a double or nothing due to level of debt and if they can manage through the mortgages selectively (ie selectively file).

If you are interested in SMTA you should also look at RVI. It's a very similar story but for different assets. I haven't spent time on RVI in depth but I would say the thesis across these names are similar. Different assets but both pretty mediocre.

If you're thinking of putting it into like Vanguard's total bond market fund then their 20% stock 80% bond Lifestrategy Income Fund actually will have lower volatility than the total bond market fund. And it should have higher returns and be slightly more tax efficient.

Stupid question but why is it more tax efficient if their dividend yield is basically the same at 1.3%?

I don't fully understand the difference in why ETF (VB) & Mutual Fund(VTMSX) report differently, but Morningstar indicates SEC Yields for both, which are 1.43% vs. 1.32%. So ~8% more 'dividend efficient'.

In response to OP, you could run a 2 component screen (MidCap+, 0% dividend) at https://finviz.com/screener.ashx

However, I think that would be a waste of time at best and probably -EV risk adjusted(0% dividend drags you into some non-cap/sector weighted allocation) to hone in on these companies. It seems simply focusing on general bucket placement (bonds/REITs/high dividend domestic in tax advantaged, international equity in taxable) is good enough.

So that is the only difference between those 2? The 1.43% vs 1.32%?

Thought so, thanks

Bought SMCI @ 12.80.

My thesis on this stock is: I'm skeptical of the Bloomberg article (which caused the big decline in this stock). I'm optimistic about continued demand for x86 commodity hardware in hyperscale data centers. Also weighing on my decision to buy: stock was up yesterday despite it being a big down day for tech. Looked at option prices, the calls seemed in a way that assumes a rebound is likely.

I will revisit my thesis if: there are more revelations a la the Bloomberg article, there's a decline in their business, or the stock returns to a valuation in line with its valuation before the Bloomberg article.

Any of you have BXC? I'm wondering whats up with the sell off from the highs. I bought some today and thinking if I should buy more or not.

Seems even with a sluggish housing market the cash flow and continued selling of the real estate they own thats really undervalued on their books should pay down the debt over time creating lots of value.

^^ If you are a long, indeed think about the underlying business. In this market anything that has to do with housing is getting sold at the moment.
May have a rebound with dovish FED in Dec.

I started looking at it after Scott Miller wrote it up around last December/January and I'm pretty interested at this price.

Anyone else interested in FFI? Saw this VIC write up a while back and been looking into this one since https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/i...ngs/5735555636

Has a near monopoly on its core business of film ‘completion contracts’, with seemingly high barriers to entry. Expanding into related businesses via acquisitions that should present a lot of cross selling opportunities.

Had a terrible year last year supposedly down to 1 time IPO related costs and fallout from Weinstein scandal.

Guidance of $20-22m EBIT over the next year, with a current market cap of $80m. Significant insider buying at the start of this year at multiples of current price.

Trades on London stock exchange and seems to be highly illiquid, but I personally kind of like that as it suggests to me a greater chance the market is getting it all wrong.

yes I own it. Its down because of the new home slowdown. All housing and lumber stocks are down. BXC is highly levered so it will swing more than most

What are you guys doing with NTS Ahnuld? I sold like 4/5's at $1 (give or take a few cents on the various transactions), just didn't have the stomach for it.

They seem to be trying to push pharma as their way to get investor confidence back. Thinking I can wait longer before buying back in. Still like the long term story. Will always wonder what might have been had China worked out on time.

CTRA seems very interesting, it just up-listed into the NYSE. After the recent merger, it's now the largest met coal supplier in the USA and the financials are not updated on most sites.

Will have around 450m in unrestricted cash at the end of the year, possibly closer to 600m if 100m in restricted cash moves into being unrestricted and 75m in tax receivables comes through.

Met coal futures pricing show by the end of next year it could have its market cap in cash, 1.2-1.3B

Will probably give out a $20-30 special dividend very soon and a really big one end of the next year.

FCF is huge. One model on seeking alpha shows 600m for 2019 factoring in the met coal futures price.

I got most my information from this post on seeking alpha. Was wondering what some of you guys think of this.

Is China officially doneso or is their a small chance of it happening sometime in the future?

The last earnings call I heard they said it wouldn't be done in the "foreseeable future" but that HF made good progress with it. I think all sides have too much committed for it not to happen.

In the end what seems to have happened is the growth story management promised (for like 6 consecutive quarters) didn't work out since they couldn't deliver China on time. Investors just lost patience. To me the long term story stays the same, but that means nothing to share price. I think nobody really wanted dead money for years (20% growth in a micro cap sounds a lot less interesting than 100%). I fully plan to revisit the investment, just think they'll be ample opportunity at a later date.

Dumped all longs except for ORBT. Shorting the planet.

Long: ORBT
Short (either straight or by puts or sold calls): TSLA, NFLX, AAPL, W, SHOP, BRK.B, MSFT, BABA, NKE, MDXG

Thanks for the NKE idea, Malachii.