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Value Investing and Longer Term Investing Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

04-27-2018 , 04:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
Bought a bunch of new microcaps that all look too cheap: BXC, MMAC, OTEL, NULM, PFSW, SMID, SWKH, CVU, IDT, NTIC, NTP, VMD.V.
I sold CISN, RAD, MMAC and YTRA to take a large position in VMD.V on Monday. I think this stock is about to blow up, especially if it gets listed on a US exchange.
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04-28-2018 , 07:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
Bought a bunch of new microcaps that all look too cheap: BXC, MMAC, OTEL, NULM, PFSW, SMID, SWKH, CVU, IDT, NTIC, NTP, VMD.V.
I went long BXC on day of announcement. been a good ride since then, not sure how much longer ill hold though. certainly through Q1 reporr
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04-28-2018 , 07:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by calmasahinducow
I sold CISN, RAD, MMAC and YTRA to take a large position in VMD.V on Monday. I think this stock is about to blow up, especially if it gets listed on a US exchange.
I saw the viemed guys in early feb. it was clearly a buy then, not sure id be holding now, seems fair value
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04-28-2018 , 01:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
I saw the viemed guys in early feb. it was clearly a buy then, not sure id be holding now, seems fair value
Off topic, but this failure to consider tax implications of selling vs holding is a big reason that hedge funds are such a bad investment. Deferring the capital gains can be worth upwards of 1% annually, so continuing to hold a fairly-priced stock in taxable accounts is almost always the right choice.
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04-29-2018 , 08:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
Off topic, but this failure to consider tax implications of selling vs holding is a big reason that hedge funds are such a bad investment. Deferring the capital gains can be worth upwards of 1% annually, so continuing to hold a fairly-priced stock in taxable accounts is almost always the right choice.
if fair value stocks appreciate 8% per year but my next idea generates 20% per year then its pretty obvious you sell. Taxes would be a 2% hit.
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04-29-2018 , 04:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
if fair value stocks appreciate 8% per year but my next idea generates 20% per year then its pretty obvious you sell. Taxes would be a 2% hit.
Pretty obvious that nobody is outperforming by anywhere near that much.
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04-30-2018 , 01:29 PM
Ford's decision to stop selling cars seems really stupid to me, especially with how popular the fusion has become. I'm not sure if this makes them a long-term short but long-term I think it is a terrible decision for the company.

Also, I'm not really sure if this thread is the best spot for this post but seemed like the best fit.
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05-01-2018 , 07:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
Pretty obvious that nobody is outperforming by anywhere near that much.
You dont have to outperform by that much overall, just your incremental best idea. If someone is compounding at 15% im pretty sure their best idea will be expected IRR of 20% plus.
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05-01-2018 , 07:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
You dont have to outperform by that much overall, just your incremental best idea. If someone is compounding at 15% im pretty sure their best idea will be expected IRR of 20% plus.
You're making some very unreasonable assumptions. How many funds have compounded at 15% long-term? How many people can outperform by even 2% a year? And the marginal return on an additional dollar invested should equal your average rate of return, not the expected return on your best idea.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."
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05-01-2018 , 08:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
You dont have to outperform by that much overall, just your incremental best idea. If someone is compounding at 15% im pretty sure their best idea will be expected IRR of 20% plus.
Sick gainz
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05-02-2018 , 07:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
You're making some very unreasonable assumptions. How many funds have compounded at 15% long-term? How many people can outperform by even 2% a year? And the marginal return on an additional dollar invested should equal your average rate of return, not the expected return on your best idea.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."
excpet im not talking about an additional dollar, im talking about recycling the same portfolio size.

plenty of funds can compound at 15% a year, until they get too big.

thousands of people can outperform by 2% until they get too big. hell, my firm has gross out performance of about 6% over 11+ years
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05-02-2018 , 07:14 AM
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Originally Posted by applesauce123
Sick gainz
ya man sick life
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05-03-2018 , 09:12 PM
southwest officially going after the HA interisland segment, though probably won't be for a while still.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/03/hawa...n-islands.html
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05-03-2018 , 10:30 PM
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Originally Posted by BCI23
southwest officially going after the HA interisland segment, though probably won't be for a while still.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/03/hawa...n-islands.html
Thought this was already priced in, suprised to see it sell off as much as it did. I just don't see how LUV will operate inter island flights efficiently. This article gives a good overview of the challenges they're facing.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/...-airlines.aspx



Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
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05-04-2018 , 02:46 PM
ZCL reported and it was in line with what the CEO said it would be, Q1 earnings are always very low, but he expected revenue and earnings to be great the last half year and they increased their dividend and announced a large special dividend which seems to back up those expectations. So they earned $0.02 instead of $.03 and the stock is down 9% today. Seems like free $ the rest of the year.
I wrote an article about ZCL on SA about 2 quarters ago and managed to sell about 1/4 of my position right at the top of their recovery peak a couple weeks ago. Thinking of adding a bunch more on this sell off.

Risk is the CEO is retiring and maybe he's just trying to inflate his worth before he leaves by talking a big game.
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05-09-2018 , 12:06 PM
NTS.V q2 call tomorrow.

Don't know if we can expect any stock price movement.

Also they bought a new toy

https://www.nanosecurity.ca/investor...graphy-system/

https://www.jeol.co.jp/en/products/d...BX-6300FS.html
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05-09-2018 , 02:22 PM
The biggest news is going to be the India deal which already did nothing for the price, so unless they surprise us with good news on the China deal I wouldn't expect much.
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05-10-2018 , 07:13 AM
ODP @2.19 after beating EPS and revenue estimates and raising guidance

currently trading at 6x EPS and 0.6 Book Value.

Ahnuld what do you think about this one?
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05-10-2018 , 05:38 PM
Lots of changes going on at PRSC. Shackleton brother leaving CFO roles, closing down the holding company office which seems like a pretty big undertaking, evaluating strategic alternatives for WD division, Interim CEO and CFO in place currently, meanwhile results seems pretty strong for the core NET segment . I wonder if they are setting this up for a sale?
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05-10-2018 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by solid first post
NTS.V q2 call tomorrow.

Don't know if we can expect any stock price movement.

Also they bought a new toy

https://www.nanosecurity.ca/investor...graphy-system/

https://www.jeol.co.jp/en/products/d...BX-6300FS.html
New toy sounds like it cost about $2m and already producing revenue. M^2 thing sounds cool (to be announced May 23) and whatever experimental thing they were excited to not talk about. Gotta produce revenue though. No significant China updates.
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05-12-2018 , 08:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCI23
Lots of changes going on at PRSC. Shackleton brother leaving CFO roles, closing down the holding company office which seems like a pretty big undertaking, evaluating strategic alternatives for WD division, Interim CEO and CFO in place currently, meanwhile results seems pretty strong for the core NET segment . I wonder if they are setting this up for a sale?
unless I missed something new David Shackelton isnt leaveing, he just took a new role as cheif transformation officer. And his linked in page is consistent with that:


Chief Transformation Officer
Company NameProvidence Service Corporation
Dates EmployedApr 2018 – Present Employment Duration2 mos
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05-12-2018 , 08:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
I like goodfood a lot at this price. We got in much lower but I think its going to be a huge winner. will probably do a full VIC writeup after the next quarterly so dont want to say too much here.
bumpity bump bump. i like it even more down here. article in financial post yesterday implies they will hit my target of 81k subs for May 31st, and I have them hitting positive ebitda in November quarter, so seems on track
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05-14-2018 , 12:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
unless I missed something new David Shackelton isnt leaveing, he just took a new role as cheif transformation officer. And his linked in page is consistent with that:


Chief Transformation Officer
Company NameProvidence Service Corporation
Dates EmployedApr 2018 – Present Employment Duration2 mos
Maybe i'm wrong but i viewed that as more of a transitional role and that he is eventually on his way out given that he is in NYC and the company is consolidating everything to NET's Atlanta offices and searching for permanent CEO and CFO to be in Atlanta. I'm not sure how he could oversee any "transformation" from NYC when everyone else is in Atlanta.

Anyways, just strikes me as a very significant strategic change in terms of how the company is going to be operated going forward, something is up imo.
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05-26-2018 , 09:30 AM
I bit the bullet and finally bought shares of MELI. I know its not a value investment but I love the business and demographics so much I cant help it.

+ the company has achieved 35% ebitda margins in the past so theres a decent roadmap back to those margins. Just wish I heard about this company 2 years ago
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05-26-2018 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCI23
Maybe i'm wrong but i viewed that as more of a transitional role and that he is eventually on his way out given that he is in NYC and the company is consolidating everything to NET's Atlanta offices and searching for permanent CEO and CFO to be in Atlanta. I'm not sure how he could oversee any "transformation" from NYC when everyone else is in Atlanta.

Anyways, just strikes me as a very significant strategic change in terms of how the company is going to be operated going forward, something is up imo.
Now Coliseum is selling shares in the market. Like I said, something is up. It seems like Coliseum is either moving on or they realize that the stock is overvalued and they can't sell the whole company for the price they are selling in the open market for otherwise as the largest shareholder and Chairman of the Board you would think they would just look to sell the whole company.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...45X03/doc4.xml
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