It'd be nice if the price went up.

Increased guidance for Q2 and FY2018.

Look, I am optimistic about this company in the long term. That is why I am invested.

But this is mutiple quarterly reports in a row that you've pumped up even though nothing significant has happened.

NTS is priced as a hyper growth stock but thus far their growth has been disappointing especially considering their small size.

I've said for 3 Q's that late 2018 is where I'm expecting the growth. I haven't moved from that. That's what they've been saying too, call over call.

$1.99 for the kindle version of ed thorps newest book right now, i enjoyed it: https://www.amazon.com/Man-All-Marke...or+all+markets

DDS calls were 5 baggers. Out of DDS for +40%, out of RAD for -40%. Meh.

Current longs (based on size)
AGO, DS, PDEX, FELP, CBK, ORBT, APWC, MGM, DGLY, PRSC preferreds
Short: TSLA, EEFT
Long Calls: DS

National Bank Financial…

Newalta (NAL; SP; $1.45T) is getting recapitalized and it looks far better than it could have been in a debt restructuring outcome. Tervita is essentially RTO-ing through NAL, with the pro-forma entity being run by Tervita management, the board 80% Tervita, and the ownership 89% Tervita / 11% NAL. This is a first take, analyst Greg Colman should be out with a report. More to follow.

• Using Secure-like growth rates and multiples (which may be a stretch, but it’s a starting point), this suggests a pro-forma market cap of something like $1.3 bln, and so NAL’s 11% stake is worth about $143mm or $1.63/sh (currently $0.95/sh). Second, the balance sheet looks a lot better - the pro-forma entity will be more like 3.0x (vs. NAL at ~5x) using management’s numbers and a Secure-like growth rate, and with actual free cash flow, probably around $100mm;

• This may look a little daunting to be diluted down to only 11% of the pro-forma entity, but when you’re coming off a highly levered base, with a market cap of $84mm, this is actually a bit of a win for NAL shareholders. Versus other recapitalizations we’ve seen in the basin which involve highly dilutive financings (and no growth).

Altacorp…

A big headline M&A transaction of note this morning in the combination of Newalta (NAL, $84 mln mkt cap, Not Rated ($429 mln EV); CDN oilfield waste disposal co.) and Tervita Energy Services (Private, not rated, large CDN Oilfield and Industrial waste and environmental company). Would take this as a positive for the sector in general -Secure Energy Services (SES, Not rated reports after market today. Conference Call @ 11AM ET: Dial-in Info: 647-427-7450 or 888-231-8191

· Highlights

o New Tervita will be a publicly traded entity.
o Pro forma 2017 revenue and EBITDA are expected to be $2.6 bln and $201 mln ($245 mln after giving effect to $40-$45 mln expected synergies).
o Pro forma total debt/EBITDA is expected to be roughly 3.6x; We calculate that total debt for the proforma entity will be roughly $725 mln.
o Current NAL shareholders are expected to own 11-13% of New Tervita, depending on the extent that warrants are exercised.
o Deal requires 66.67% approval from shareholders of both NAL and Tervita.
o New Tervita will retain Tervita’s current management team.

· Mechanics of the Deal
o NAL shareholders will be offered 0.1467 New Tervita shares plus 0.0307 warrants to purchase 1 New Tervita share at a NAL equivalent price of $2.75, NAL shares are currently trading at $0.95 (exercisable for 2 years).
o @ an assumed 10x EV/EBITDA multiple, 11% ownership in the combined entity, and full credit for synergies, implied value per NAL share is roughly $2.15/share (126% premium).
o @ an assumed 8x EV/EBITDA multiple, 11% ownership in the combined entity, and full credit for synergies, value per NAL share is roughly $1.54/share (62% premium).
o Secure (SES-TSX) is trading at roughly 10x 2017 consensus EV/EBITDA, and 8.6x 2018 consensus EV/EBITDA.

I sold on that last pop above $1.30, but I could see buying back here. Thanks for posting!

yes this. sounds like indian contract is days/weeks away from being signed and that its bigger than previously contemplated

2 ****co's getting together. Good for the newalta bonds, but long term if I wanted to play the space id just buy secure.

word is the ceo has a great relationship with pembina ceo and they jusy follow each other into the new/growing regions, whereas newalta and tervita have older faciltiies in areas with production dropping off

NTS share price is like 3x the reported shareholder equity, you don't need hyper growth to like the value there. In regards to the China deal, I'm more optimistic after this last call than after the annual report. If it wasn't salvageable I would think they'd start talking more negatively about it. Basically the fact that they were "optimistic" on the annual call was reason to downgrade, the fact that their position remains the same on the last call gives me more confidence. In either case it seems all but priced out so there's more potential upside than risk. India news obv welcome as well.

If you guys are into REITs i think the Sears spinoff SRG is interesting down here at $36. The bull case here has been the same since they spun off 2.5 years ago. IMO the story has played out basically as expected, they are quickly diversifying away from Sears, re-leasing Sears properties at 4x the rate Sears was paying. Eventually they will re-lease all of their square footage at $18/sq ft instead of the $4 Sears currently pays, annual rent would be $18 * 40m sq ft = $720m at a 6-7% cap rate = $10-12b enterprise value vs. $2.5b today. I view this as a name you buy and just hold for 5+ years, I think the sentiment here will flip very quickly once it becomes obvious to everyone that these guys will be fine without Sears but I don't know when that will be. The short interest is also very high and consensus seems to be that people are shorting SRG as a cheaper way to short SHLD. Really the biggest thing they need to solidify here is just their funding requirements over the next few years to redevelop these Sears properties into more attractive uses. The headlines are bad for SRG right now - Sears is dying quick, the re-leasing income hasnt really shown up in their GAAP income statements yet to prove they can survive without Sears, malls are dead, and Amazon is killing all of retail. I think all these headlines are bs and will eventually subside but in the meantime theres just not much to be excited about over the next year or so with SRG.

I don't use this as a primary reason for buying but Buffett bought this in his personal account 2 years ago around the same price as today, his track record in real estate is basically 100% so thats nice.

I think your cap rate calculation is overly optimistic... don't you need to subtract operating expenses? GGP and SPG's FFO are 64% and 72% of revenue, respectively, and they both trade around a 7% cap rate off that. That would get you to $7b ballpark for SRG, so still significant upside if your thesis is right though.

It's a novel concept but where is a majority of Sears real estate located? If it's mostly in midwest then nobody wants that space. Let's assume most of their space would be turned into luxury apartments cause that seems to be what everything is turning into. They can't build luxury apartments in butt**** Mississippi and expect people to live there. I can think of one Sears near me. The space it holds can't be turned into anything productive. So they may hold billions in real estate but who is buying?

I doubt Walmart and Target are still expanding at a rapid rate in brick and mortar. So it has to be luxury apartments or something Amazon will use.

Out of DS calls for 3 bagger. Meh
Bought TPC. Holding it for the duration of the Trump presidency.

Current longs (based on size)
AGO, DS, PDEX, ORBT, FELP, TPC, CBK, MGM, APWC, DGLY, PRSC preferreds
Short: TSLA, EEFT
Long puts: TSLA

ya I sold my DDS last week on the pop

I'm surprised it didn't pop higher given that 70% of the float was short.


Out of TSLA short for +5% and EEFT for -5%. Lol. Gonna switch to puts instead.

Buying HFRO (jb's idea) given that they won a 200+m settlement and it's unlikely that Texas Supreme Court will grant cert, which adds over $2 in NAV. Simply a matter of holding and collecting dividends until they collect.

Current longs (based on size)
AGO, DS, PDEX, ORBT, HFRO, FELP, TPC, MGM, CBK, APWC, DGLY, PRSC preferreds
Long puts: TSLA

if anyone has PRSC preferred shares from the offering 3 years ago:
stock price is getting close to the price (~78$ i think) where they can force-convert the preferred shares into common ones.

gonna miss that dividend

Yeah but you'll get almost a double bagger return on the conversion.
I should've never dumped those shares.

yeah... i'm not really complaining

Adding a small position in ARCI. This should be a BCI23 favorite I think.
Graham net-net selling at 60% NCAV now that management has eliminated 4.2m in debt.

Current longs (based on size)
AGO, DS, PDEX, ORBT, HFRO, FELP, TPC, CBK, MGM, ARCI, APWC, DGLY, PRSC preferreds
Long puts: TSLA

haha I'm actually pretty familiar with this company and I wouldn't touch it with a 9' pole. Its cheap for a very good reason imo and I wouldn't own it at any price with the current CEO involved. Do some research on Tony Isaac and his son John Isaac who is CEO of ticker LIVE. Everything with these guys just screams shady characters. Nevada incorporation, CFOs resigning, BS no name auditors, very questionable/non-nonsensical acquisitions, paid stock promotion/pump and dumb. You might get lucky catching a pop from one of these BS press releases or paid promotion but this is not a long term winner, i'd recommend moving on from this one.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/403...icient-auditor

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5...vestors-beware

Oof! Clearly my due diligence was not enough on this, though I don't think I would've honestly found that.

It was only after I looked into the recent transaction by ARCI to eliminate debt that I found the connection you were describing:
https://seekingalpha.com/filing/3823630

Arm's length transaction rules? Who needs those!

Looking into LIVE, the most recent CC is rather hilarious to read through too:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/414...all-transcript

Guess I will be exiting. Luckily not a large position so not going to be a big deal.

Yeah I’d exit that one. ARCI and LIVE are fun names to follow to see how shady scammers/frauds operate and somehow stay under the SEC radar. CETX and HOTR are other ones. SEC can’t catch the most obvious frauds. RIOT, run by former HSNL guy and probably 2p2er, is another shady one with every red flag in the book present.

im not so sure they will. I mean logically they should, but coliseum controls the board and is by far the biggest holder of the prefs

wouldn't that be begging for a shareholder class action suit? (IANAL)