Is it best to sell now at $1.20 or wait until the $1.25 payout?

I mean the buyer has cash so I doubt there's much deal risk. Also possible someone like CCL comes in with a superior bid in the next week or two. Personally im just holding

Nice little 8x+

XPEL has really killed it for me.

My new low-priced picks are GLXZ [for a while now] and the re-listed TUEM.

My largest positions, other than XPEL, are the old standbys: GOOG, AMZN, MA, MSFT, FB, ADBE.

It's almost like category winners continue to win.

Newest holdings are VSCO, S and UPST. Also making a lot of money on SPAC options.

yes, pre-spac options are mispriced often. My fund put on a spac warrant basket trade in june

$DOMA.

You'll remember you read this post here, some years from now...

GL with this. I did a lot of work on Real Matters (a competitor) and its very very hard to win on purchase volume. Doma will not disrupt the purchase side at all. Maybe they can do well on Refis, where title is all bank driven. But refis are very cyclical and you are entering a period of crazy tough comps.

Would be interested in hearing where I am wrong if you have done some work on the name.

re DOMA:

Im reading some expert calls and this sounds like a scam. consider this my good deed for the day. stay away

ahnuld you got any thoughts on GDL and ACQ on the Canadian side, I'm wondering if I should take some profits now. Both have really strong cash flows right now but it looks like we passed the peak on second hand car prices and lumber has come down considerably as well.

Would be interested in hearing a justification for this particular call. Perfectly willing to change my mind, but there has to be substance to the claim, especially if its one like 'scam'.

They're winning enterprise clients left and right and delivering the goods and their product absolutely destroys the legacy offering (like, there is no comparison- jet air travel compared to horse and wagon). So, if its a 'scam', they're 'scamming' Wells Fargo, B of A, etc?

They talked about purchases over refis in the Q2 earnings call yesterday (that they absolutely nuked and raised guidance with a lot of very real money)

So, please, justify "scam" in light of these numbers:

That doesn't look like a 'scam' to me, ala any given pre-production EV stock.
Plz show your work.

This is true, we agree, no argument.

Long or short?

good point, some could be overvalued. but impossible to short. we're playing the cheap ones as longs

you could be doing 1 job for wells fargo, and technically say "we won them".

the scam is there is very little ML or AI occuring. They are basically just not doing any work for many title searches and figuring the odds of it coming back to bite you are low, and wont happen for many years. at which point Max the ceo has sold most of his stock.

But then in 3 years you're blackballed from the industry and this is a zero.

Also see what I said about purchase title. They are projecting 40% of their business will come from that side. no chance.


edited to add: also those Q2 numbers you posted are lower growth than Stewart title. Literally the "horse and wagon" in your example is growing faster than the jet plane. Its all refi cycle. Doma is nothing

'Title Quality' was actually a major consideration I had however at the end of the day, there are some points against your thesis.

Lennar basically gave them North American Title (big title co) in exchange for SPAC equity in a tiny startup. So, assuming the DOMA tech is all just quack-data and not credible machine learning, that means Lennar failed to do adequate DD on the deal and handed them an eight figure company on a 'hunch'? Or they got bamboozled? Their large enterprise clients aren't 'one deal' situations either, they've gone over this, so we now must also make the leap of faith and assume they've bamboozled Wells and BofA (who would open themselves to some liability were the affiliated vendor product essentially a straight hoax, as you claim).

Is totally possible its all a scam that has buffaloed those entities... but I'm not really sure a guy who named his tech startup the same as the acronym for a highly politically charged and deeply unpopular flashpoint-law has the sort of social IQ needed to pull something like that off.

Also, insurance is insurance whether its auto or title or life. (x) incidents every (y) participants resulting in (n) payout. There would have to be evidence that the automated processing they do is such a departure from legacy that it increases X meaningfully enough that it can't be compensated by properly managing their float and cash reserves... but when you look at what legacy title processing actually does, its nothing that couldn't be automated pretty easily with a Lexis dataset.

Its definitely something I'm going to watch out very carefully for and if they start sputtering on delivering or have nothingburgers/excuses on progress here, would absolutely trim my position.

Totally accept the refi cycle argument 100%, but not an apples for apples comparison since one is a maturing startup and the other legacy. Its good timing for a company like this, which counts.

Lennar sold them NA title in 2018. Much lower valuation than todays spac value, which is insane. Im sure Lennar will unload their large interest asap.

Speaking of which, have you looked at lock up terms? any comment?

Insurance is insurance except for title. Of course basic actuarial math can model out loss rates without doing any real title work. But WFC will black ball you. Imagine you're Wells and 3 years later all these clients of yours, who do a lot of business with you including their home mortgages, start coming back and saying their titles are all defective, their neighbour owes 10 ft of their property, and its a massive PITA. The client will blame Wells. You think wells wants to deal with this or will just switch over to the title guys who actually check the title?

and yes the claim is from an insider who was with the company for most of its existence and left in 2020.

your last comment really makes no sense, a disruptive fintech should be growing above the stogy incumbents, not below them.

I edited my post a bit.

I'll very lightly accept an internet forum post of secret insider knowledge about the credibility of their product, but with a big grain of salt. If it turns out to actually be true- its all just Scamtech and will eventually come tumbling down ala Theranos- this post will probably get a subpoena someday when the investigations kick off, since its absolutely the first I've seen of a claim anything like that in public. Since your position goes back to that one credibility claim and that claim can't be proven or disproven without the passage of time, we can leave it there.

Title insurance is no different than any insurance from an origination standpoint, it all comes down to risk and the probability of a payout event based on the absence of defect indicators in certain databases/sources, which is a process that can be automated.

We completely agree that Wells, BofA and all their other fairly major enterprise clients have a massive incentive to not be issuing garbage title insurance under their brand, yet they very much are using DOMA, which means that either they've been taken in by the scam warned of by your secret former insider, or the secret former insider is wrong (or its just BS).

The play here in:re your claim is betting on the likelihood that your insider is correct and WFC, BOA, Lennar, etc all failed in their DD and got taken in by a huckster, or your insider is wrong (or doesn't exist, or was just spouting untrue BS)

I'll be on the lookout for their ability to scale into purchase titles. That's valid point.

Disruptive fintech with structural/legal barriers to entry isn't going to scale instantly, but I don't think adoption will be a problem if their product is shown to be credible. Wells Fargo, B of A, Lennar, etc all think it is, your insider says it isn't. Time will tell.

not sure why you seem to not think this insider exists. It was through an expert call network. Hes been talking to a lot of people, not just me. It wont be me who's subpoenaed but him. Why do you think the stock has been so weak since de-spacing. Institutional investors like myself are doing their work, including talking to former insiders like this guy, and everything coming back garbage.

I also never claimed its all made up. The normal NA title business is very traditional, bums in seats type work. Its this whole ML AI overlay they sprout that is bs.

But let me throw it back to you. If they are winning so much share as they claim with big lenders, why did they grow less than the incumbent Stewart title last quarter?

I'll accept the naysaying former-insider exists, but I'd be really interested to see some sort of external validation of their existence beyond vague oral history, here. Usually, when there's someone publicly speaking about a company being an outright scam, it gets mentioned in more than one place. To my knowledge, this thread is the first I've ever seen of any such claims. Willing to stand corrected.

Founders and pre-SPAC institutional investors redeeming or taking early exists post DA isn't something new, surprising or that you would need to have explained, since its pretty standard. What DOMA doesn't have going for it is buzz, where retail can offset Post-DA insider selling.

in:re revenue growth when its still in such an early runway phase: they're breaking into a market with significant institutional barriers. Its no different than an ISRG in 2000.

2000: "If robotic is so good, why are their sales so low? Surgeons say its a gimmick, nobody is going to use that thing..."
2004: "OK so they have some sales now, but if robotic is so good, why are they getting sued?"
2007: "If robotic is so good, why are there still some surgeons not using it?"
2012: "Looks like everyone is starting to use it..."
2017: "Everyone uses it..."

To be clear, I absolutely never even considered that DOMA was lightweight "smoke and mirrors" tech until your posts but I do now and I'l be watching for indicators of that a lot more carefully.

Hey all:

Are there any value investors looking at natural resource, mining stocks? Specifically, the precious metals miners?

There are some rather interesting bargains to be had?

Some of these stocks are trading for LOW single digit P/E's. Some of these low P/E stocks have fortress like balance sheets, some with no debt, and relatively large amounts of cash. Some of them also pay dividends too. Some are increasing their production. Some of them even have all or MOST of the previous financial characteristics.

I think inflation is here for at least the short & medium term. I don't see how the price of gold & silver goes down significantly.

Now obviously, most of these things should trade at a discount...but just how much of a discount? I've talked with some other investors, and they simply are not interested, not any price, not at any valuation. That makes me think that segment of the market may be inefficient?

Anybody got any ideas?

The major gold miners are printing free cash flows like never before. Look up Eric Sprott and Michael Gentile. The present situation looks promising for the jr explorers, especially in Newfoundland there's a mega gold rush in the area after NFG hit incredible drill results.

The real bargains are found in private placements and flow through shares. Or if you can join the team to do some of the heavy lifting on the capital markets side. Most Jrs are missing a key member of the dream team.

I was just loosely using warrants = options in my head, although of course they are not the same thing here. I'm shorting SPAC options, very profitable this year with virtually no risk.

I'd missed this, funny end to this story for sure.

I did in fact go short this one. Covered it yesterday. hope you didnt stay long

ahnuld, thoughts on gold and uranium for a 1-2 year time horizon?

Also interested in your thoughts on PRPL and/or PINS if you're still following those. Both seem like they're at great entry points.