Coffee Holding (JVA) wholesale coffee company is now below net current asset value a "net-net." I got NCAV of $16 mil. Current market cap is $15.6. The floor for the stock has usually been around net tangible asset value. Never a consistent execution on top-line(sales have usually been flat) or bottom line but they have been profitable in the past. I might pick some more up in my long-term acct.

Been happy to buy NTSFF <17.50 and sell >18.50. Have a sizable position at ~17.10 now. Someone has been aggressively buying shares at 18+ last couple of days, most at 20+ even. Something like 150k shares.

Since their quarterly report, someone has been aggressively buying up shares. Right now there is an 80k bid @ .20 on a 250k volume day. There wasn't anything particularly notable from their quarterly report that I noticed.

As someone could slowly build a position in the 16-17 range it seems like a pretty big positive that someone is aggressively pushing up the floor

Anyone know have an opinion on ADM(food industry company)? It currently has P/E=14.48; P/(Book value)=1.17 and its a dividend aristrocat. Its now playing 0.36$ per quarter and its selling for 40$. Im a newbie investor trying to get my feet wet on value investing btw

One thing with "value investing" is that you have to realize that much like poker, a lot of the standard theory has become outdated. The biggest reason is that data that used to require shitloads of effort to derive (and a brain to understand) has been made incredibly easy to get. I'm not even that 'old' and remember when it was just so completely different than it is now... and a lot of the strategy goes out the window when markets get irrational and swingy.

People managing their personal $15K or $150K (or whatever) try to apply big-AUM institutional value strategies to their personal portfolios (because if Buffett did it, it must be right for me) but being too dogmatic results in missed opportunities.

Example- I like BEN (and I realize a lot of people hate BEN) because of their highly conservative management style, and I believe they have enough developed marketshare to make moves into niche markets and make the shift from mostly managed to mostly index (they have had a lot of outflows in recent years, but they have a lot of cash). They're an aristocrat, dividend 'culture' of a company is just so huge for long term DRIP and that's one that doesn't F around there, so when the yeild started getting over 6% during the Corona Crash, I had absolutely no problem diverting some savings into shares to get that... but when it ripped back up from 15 to 24, adios. I'm out... and per value dogmatists, I comitted some sort of sin, because the fundamentals of the company didn't change, but the price did and I was convinced that I could catch it in another leg down.

There's also a lot of 'fake value' you have to beware of if you're using fairly shallow 'free screener' metrics like p/e, p/b and yeild. Business perspective investing is harder since it requires a qualatative skillset (which deeply quantatative-minded people, aka folks on the autism spectrum, tend to be oblivious to) and that **** is all about things like having good judgement, being rational, being informed, having developed perspective... there's no screener for that... but even Buffett basically abandoned Graham style value and went to Munger style business-perspective investing when he saw the light.

Pay attention to value metrics, but don't get blinders on and get too caught up in them, lest you try to play 2005 poker in 2020 and wonder why its not working. Even the concept of dividend stability for long term compounding is relatively new to the rabble... If that's something you're interested in, focus on business growth, margins and payout ratio.

Thanks LOLOL. Btw I dont think waiting for a price drop to aquire a good solid business goes against value investing dogma, because its not enough that a company has good fundamentals, it also has to be undervalued by the market (according to Ben Graham).

LOLOLOL has a point though that just looking at P/E and P/B ratios is maybe 1% of the work needed before doing individual stock selection. And P/B is pretty much the most useless metric in the world in isolation (ie its cash flows that matter)

What do you guys recommend book-wise after reading the intelligent investor? To improve the ability to properly value businesses

Poor Charlie's Almanack is the closest thing to a reasonable guide that helps teach you how to think. Its campy, but there's massive insight.

Quantitative value is important, but qualitative value is way more important.
Quality matters more than quantity and its not a math problem. Its more psychology. Its largely making an educated guess on what people will do on a timeline, then identifying the companies that have some sort of growth or competative edge.

Watch this.
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeaut...tions_between/
We all know "why" it did what it did, but having qualitative judgement refined and objective enough to know when to pull the plug on BBI and ignore last Q's data is where the quants get/got smashed.

LOLOL when you write qualitative you mean valueing intagible assets (like coca cola brand etc) and the competence of the ceo etc? These things are ofc important aswell but I was just using ratios as a first filter. After finding a dozen or so companies that meet the criteria (low P/e, low P/bv) I would like to get a grasp at how actually valuable the company is. This is the tricky part for me.
Also one more question, when figuring out how much a share is worth, do you always compare to the value on zero risk investments (10 year federal note)?

Buffett's benchmark is treasuries, but neither you nor I are managing that kind of wad where we have to be so insanely risk averse. Munis, Preferred shares of solid companies and other things offer a much better payout at very low (but not nill) risk, so that's my own personal datum. Your mileage may vary. I know Prior Lake, Minnesota is going to pay me back...

Management decisionmaking is huge, but so is consumer sentiment, what direction they're steering their market growth (if any), etc, etc. Buffett classifies rational management as his #1 or #2 most important factor, you need to be able to suss out credible intention from jargoneering and the predictible phraseology they all use in the conference call. Hard to quantify but easy to qualify. Like porn, hard to define but you know it when you see it.

If you want an example of a dumpster-fire manager, see Vicki Hollub. Taking on that kind of debt to buy Anadarko when your business is ****ing OIL, subject to massive market swings, was child-like naive, but she actually ran a major company and did it... and now, OXY is a fallen dividend angel and burning the furniture to service debt. The swan-dive from good stock to shitshow, and then the total drubbing after COVID (they got below $10) was 100% a result of garbage management decisions and Icahn won't be able to activist his way out of that one... Some of those Permain assets have 0 value with oil below 45, even with the wells already drilled. It's a coiled spring, though. If disruptions happen real bad in oil and it starts to blow, there's interesting potential there ( The beaten up midstream MLPs get interesting there, too)... and disrupted markets usually take a year or two to really light up on the pricing side... and we're definitely in that zone with some commodities.

I actually think for a lot of people beating the street by peter lynch is very good. half the book is him going over 2 minute elevator pitches for stocks he likes at the time, from various industries. then later he does post mortems. Its incredibly helpful for people who may not be as familiar with different industries to see what lynch views as important metrics or drivers for each one.

i mean thats why you focus on cash flows and theoretically do a DCF. but garbage in garbage out, dont do this at home, ect.

Yoooooo NTSFF holy ****

Edit: Lol me.

How ripe is 3D printing for growth? Anyone investing in this space and any suggestions if so?

my understanding of it is it was always a bubble

the printers aren't very precise and are limited with plastic for the home user

so you couldn't just buy the schematics for a keyboard and just print it out so most of the things it can produce are novelty items you'd buy at the dollar store like a whistle

once you get into something a bit more capable and precise, the costs go way up and even then you're still severely limited compared to classic machine tooling - my brother is an architect and his firm has 2-3 rooms of their office space for these massive 3d printers so they can print out mockup railings and doornobs etc to look and feel them as well as show to clients before they actually go and build them - but not via 3d printers but rather via machine tooling or carpentry etc etc

it's a pretty romantic idea to have a factory that can make anything in your garage but the reason why you don't hear about them anymore it was no longer a dream of what could be capable but a firm reality that they can basically produce a whole pile of whistles at 5x the cost of buying them

now if some kind of new technology came about to dramatically change that it could be a game changer, but we've been fooled before

Thanks, rick, all that definitely seems consistent with the chart action of 3D printing-related stocks over the last few years. I'll probably end up passing on investing in this area.

Yeah, if you haven't read it, you're just fooling yourself if you want to be an 'investor.'

NTSFF taking off a bit on news of a middle eastern bank buying their LumaChrome product

More positive news about NTSFF. Secured a multi-year contract with CONCACAF.

Hate to be a broken record when no one else is talking about it, but I am jacked to the ****ing tits.

still following, still have shares, still the only red number in my portfolio - but we're getting there.

I kept buying when it was in the teens, should probably trim at this point... Its like 15% of my portfolio

I spoke with Troy from NTS last week. all seems positive, but he was realistic when I asked him they could be on a bill for the big development contract. He told me about 2 years. But now its focused on a specific image for a specific note so its moving in the right direction and as the press release from last week stated revenues will be up this year.

MoneyGram International MGI is reporting growth numbers from their mobile app of 180 percent yoy. It’s number 56 now in the Apple store under finance. Although they have over 300k physical endpoints they are saying that digital transactions already represent 20 percent of their total revenues. The market cap is only 300 million in comparison to WU 8 billion and Square cash app 88 billion. With those growth rates and current cash flow of 100 million a year after significant restructuring efforts it seems as if the stock should be worth at least 5x what it’s trading at. I think it’s only trading so low because people think it’s not doing anything digital.

I just want to say one more thing about MoneyGram MGI. The conference call last quarter talked about huge growth rate numbers in their digital app. People are totally underestimating the value of 380,000 physical locations with millions of online customers using the app. You can send money from your phone and pick it up in person. That’s a huge edge that companies like square don’t have. 300 percent growth in transactions. At those growth rates the numbers are going to be incredible. And the average transaction is far more profitable than a square transaction that is typically mobile to mobile and local. This company right now is worth 6x its current share price and when they report earnings i think they will be profitable.

Link to call transcript:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foo...ings-call.aspx