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Value Investing and Longer Term Investing Value Investing and Longer Term Investing

07-27-2019 , 07:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf
I've never regularly stuck with SA due to hating the UI. Do you mainly follow stocks specifically or certain posters content, ala twitter etc?
The main reasons to use SA are 1) anyone who has a keyboard can put up articles and 2) some other reason that probably exists that I can't think of.
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07-27-2019 , 07:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
The main reasons to use SA are 1) anyone who has a keyboard can put up articles and 2) some other reason that probably exists that I can't think of.
Ironically, those are also the only 2 reasons to read your posts.
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07-27-2019 , 09:04 PM
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Originally Posted by thethrill009
Ironically, those are also the only 2 reasons to read your posts.
See a couple posts above where I say that you shouldn't read my posts.
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07-28-2019 , 03:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf
I've never regularly stuck with SA due to hating the UI. Do you mainly follow stocks specifically or certain posters content, ala twitter etc?
The UI is really that bad? I just glace over articles, and it interests me to see what people like and don't like. Also, the comments section expands on this so I like to read through that. I dont follow anyone specific.
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07-28-2019 , 03:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkmann
Perhaps instead of using backtested years when there wasn't an actual index or etf for the s&p dividend aristocrats, try to compare NOBL, the proshares s&p 500 dividend aristocrats etf (with its .35% expense ratio) with SPY, the s&p 500. Morningstar, with dividends included.

From NOBL's inception:

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07-28-2019 , 03:41 AM
The issue with NOBL is that it wasn't around during the last mega crash so you only have bull market data. Also, I thought I read multiple places that NOBL beat the S+P since its inception.
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07-28-2019 , 03:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkmann
The issue with NOBL is that it wasn't around during the last mega crash so you only have bull market data. Also, I thought I read multiple places that NOBL beat the S+P since its inception.
Then how exactly do you plan on investing in the dividend aristocrats?

Just buying them all? No plan with regard to brokerage fees? Selling them immediately when that "index" (even though it isn't an index) drops them from the aristocrats?
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07-28-2019 , 03:54 AM
I don't. I just wanted some proof that the index isn't the end all be all.
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07-28-2019 , 10:29 AM
Twitter is a great tool for research. Just use tags such as $IBM or whatever you're looking for. Also lets you know if something is under radar depending on how many people are talking about it. Much better than reddit imo.
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08-09-2019 , 06:31 AM
NTS announced in their press release and MD&A that they and their customer have agreed to move to the next stage of development, which is printing a large quantity of the product. While I wish the terms were finalized, it will probably be a matter of weeks and the important part is they are moving forward.
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08-09-2019 , 08:12 AM
IIRC they were earning revenue from that customer through their development contract even through the delays. Any reason to expect moving forward to translate into higher revenues?
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08-09-2019 , 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
NTS announced in their press release and MD&A that they and their customer have agreed to move to the next stage of development, which is printing a large quantity of the product. While I wish the terms were finalized, it will probably be a matter of weeks and the important part is they are moving forward.
This is the same customer from years ago that was the basis of your recommendation?

Or something different?
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08-10-2019 , 06:01 AM
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Originally Posted by d10
IIRC they were earning revenue from that customer through their development contract even through the delays. Any reason to expect moving forward to translate into higher revenues?
wernt any delays on this one. good chance this will be higher revenues in the upcoming year, but even if not it means they are about 18 months away from being put on a bill
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08-10-2019 , 06:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin
This is the same customer from years ago that was the basis of your recommendation?

Or something different?
this contract existed then but no I was talking about china then which never materialized.
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08-10-2019 , 07:08 AM
is NTS still worth holding?
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08-12-2019 , 05:19 PM
This article is super bullish on NTS imo. Sounds like whoever they were showing the product to (china?) was impressed and now they are going to demonstrate their mass production abilities. Looks like we still have to wait 12-18 months for any real action though.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/428...all-transcript
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08-13-2019 , 04:08 PM
Picked up shares of IAC last week and Jumia ADRs (JMIA) today.

IAC owns ~80% of Match and 80%+ of ANGI & the CEO recently stated that the company is likely to spin off both companies to existing shareholders. If you look at the value of the Match and ANGI shares IAC owns, they are equivalent to the current market cap of IAC so you may be getting IAC essentially for free. Of course, I'm sure that when the 80% of the float owned by IAC hits the market, shares of Match and ANGI would drop considerably so...

IAC is a pretty interesting company regardless with ownership of Vimeo, Dotdash, and a minority stake in Turo. IAC has previous spunoff Expedia, Tree, Home Shopping Network and Ticketmaster.

Jumia is an ecommerce company focused on Africa based in Germany. The thought is that Jumia could be similar to MercadoLibre or Amazon.... Of course Jumia has negative cash flow at the moment and likely for the foreseeable future. It recently went public and attracted negative attention from Citron Research. More here:

https://www.fool.com/podcasts/indust...ch-meet-jumai/

Interested in folks thoughts on the above...tia
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08-13-2019 , 06:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperSwag
This article is super bullish on NTS imo. Sounds like whoever they were showing the product to (china?) was impressed and now they are going to demonstrate their mass production abilities. Looks like we still have to wait 12-18 months for any real action though.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/428...all-transcript
Not that bullish imo. They moved forward on a single contract which might not even translate into increased revenues, and despite focusing more on immediate revenues they don't have anything significant to show for it. They need to make more sales.
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08-22-2019 , 01:44 PM
Three longs that I am considering after the next market correction or when we enter recession:

KRUS - this will be my first long idea based on expectation rather than valuation
GEO
DDS

Probably in that order.
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08-27-2019 , 10:52 AM
Ntsff up 35-40% this week. Even at 25k volume, 4-5x normal, today
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09-08-2019 , 09:10 AM
Two new ideas.

First one is SSNT, a company executing a roll-up strategy of value added ERP resellers and cybersecurity solutions. Smaller companies in this market often lack the scale to reach healthy profit levels and can therefor be acquired at attractive prices. To date all acquisitions were priced below 0.5 times sales.

SSNT sold part of their business (c. 10% of LE19 revenue) for 11.5m and plans to aggressively pursue new acquisitions with this money. At the top of historic acquisition multiples this would translate to more than 20m in additional revenue. Taking LE19 of c.45m - c.5m divestment + 20m future acquisitions results in revenue of c.60m (not taking into account Organic growth of c.10% historically). I see 60m as a realistic target in a year or 2.

Management expects to reach EBITDA levels of c. 10% at this revenue level. I believe this to be realistic based on FY16 levels of 6% (while gross margin was 2-3% lower than today) and some operating leverage.

So 60m x 10% = 6m EBITDA. Comparible companies trade at 10 x EBITDA. This would value the company at 60m (net debt is insignificant). At 4.8m fully diluted shares, this translaties to a share price of 12.50 vs. a trading price of less than 4. The company’s recurring revenue and SaaS revenue increase rapidly, which might result in higher multiples.

Shares traded up to more than 8 per share after the divestment announcement, pulled back to 3 and are now climbing up again with some large buyers (for a microcap).

The other idea is a liquidation play with shares trading at a 50% discount to NAV (I believe that it reserves a discount, but not that significant). https://investmentlonglist.com/2019/...an-50-discount

Interested in your views.
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11-12-2019 , 11:22 AM
The company posted great results yesterday. The stock is now up to $13.50, but still very cheap in my opinion. Trading at a PE < 6 with several areas of further growth:
- Further online sales growth via new online exclusieve products
- New product introduction at 3700 Walmart stores
- Small acquisitions, I believe that there are plenty of subscale competitors/acquisition targets available

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FTL...y?e&id=1474780


Quote:
Originally Posted by maartenp
I bought a position in FTLF (Fitlife Brands) last year at an average price of $4.50 per share. This week I added some shares at $9.20.

It is the best risk/reward in my portfolio. It is a turnaround story which to a large extent played out, but which is not reflected in the share price in my opinion.

Last quarter the company posted $1 earnings per share, the shares currently trade at $9.20.

My full write-up is available on seeking alpha.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/426...naround-impact

The company sells nutritional supplements for weight loss, sport performance etc.

Key positives:
- Cost base has been rightsized
- Return to revenue growth in offline retail channel
- Explosive growth in online sales channel (the company started to intensify their efforts for online sales ~1 year ago)
- The CEO purchased a very significant amount of shares last year and cashed out shareholders in a reverse/forward stock split at $5.70 per share.

Key negatives:
- ~80% of sales are to GNC franchisees. The number of franchisees reduced over the last couple of years due to bad performance. Continued growth in the online channel should reduce dependency on GNC.
- CEO / majority shareholder performed actions unfair to minority shareholders, he might do so again. (cash out during reverse/forward stock split at an unfair price, issuance of preferred shares last year when cash was needed at a bit too favourable conditions)

I believe that the company should be able to do more than $2 per share in earnings this year and believe that with the current momentum in the performance of the company (growth in both online and offline channel) and a new management which turned around the company the share price can easily increase to $20+ if they post one or two more good quarters.
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02-07-2020 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Backstabr
Bought SMCI @ 12.80.
Out @ $28.05. Thesis has played out, stock is relisted and I have no strong opinion on the company's future prospects relative to their competitors. I also don't want the China exposure that holding this stock gives me, plus the market seems somewhat frothy.
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03-11-2020 , 10:04 AM
Looks like NTS might be dying. Big bummer. Had candy coated dreams of 10x-ing another stock
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03-11-2020 , 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
Looks like NTS might be dying. Big bummer. Had candy coated dreams of 10x-ing another stock
hmm Fiat Money probably not best investment right now when everyone is scrubbing their hands with sanitizer. Maybe it will go to a penny? lol
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