Two new ideas.
First one is SSNT, a company executing a roll-up strategy of value added ERP resellers and cybersecurity solutions. Smaller companies in this market often lack the scale to reach healthy profit levels and can therefor be acquired at attractive prices. To date all acquisitions were priced below 0.5 times sales.
SSNT sold part of their business (c. 10% of LE19 revenue) for 11.5m and plans to aggressively pursue new acquisitions with this money. At the top of historic acquisition multiples this would translate to more than 20m in additional revenue. Taking LE19 of c.45m - c.5m divestment + 20m future acquisitions results in revenue of c.60m (not taking into account Organic growth of c.10% historically). I see 60m as a realistic target in a year or 2.
Management expects to reach EBITDA levels of c. 10% at this revenue level. I believe this to be realistic based on FY16 levels of 6% (while gross margin was 2-3% lower than today) and some operating leverage.
So 60m x 10% = 6m EBITDA. Comparible companies trade at 10 x EBITDA. This would value the company at 60m (net debt is insignificant). At 4.8m fully diluted shares, this translaties to a share price of 12.50 vs. a trading price of less than 4. The company’s recurring revenue and SaaS revenue increase rapidly, which might result in higher multiples.
Shares traded up to more than 8 per share after the divestment announcement, pulled back to 3 and are now climbing up again with some large buyers (for a microcap).
The other idea is a liquidation play with shares trading at a 50% discount to NAV (I believe that it reserves a discount, but not that significant).
https://investmentlonglist.com/2019/...an-50-discount
Interested in your views.