I'm surprised you assume a profitable Q3 and are comfortable buying puts. If that happens, your options will have decayed and the media frenzy will easily pump the stock like mad.

Q3 earnings would be around November. I believe we will know where this is going well before then.

There is also a fairly high chance that Tesla doesn't even make it to November without a capital raise.

I'm not sure why anyone would short any of the momo growth stock like NFLX, AMZN, TSLA on it being overvalued or needing capital raise. It's extremely easy to raise capital in any form these days, especially with these stocks being able to issue it which leads to a virtuous cycle of your ridiculous valuation making you more valuable.

The only reason to ever short these names is because you have found a way to better monitor their growth. I've heard that some guys that run a large sleeve at multi-manager funds don't even have a full model for these types of stocks. They just track proprietary data that they buy and trade off that because for all of these stocks with large runway that are hard to actually value, all that matters are USER # and ASP (and the equivalent). No financial line that relates to anything below those actually move the stock.

Agreed wrt NFLX and AMZN, but TSLA is in a very different situation. See the TSLA thread; bankruptcy will be the ultimate equalizer and perhaps the only thing that will finally cause the price to fall.

I fully expect them to trade at tens of billions in market cap on the very same day they file for bankruptcy, resulting in legions of bagholders.

anyone in here in AAXN?

Thoughts about CDProjekt? It's a Polish gamdev company which made Witcher 3, Gwent and is releasing Cyberpunk 2077 soon.
The market cap of it is 5.4B USD today, more than Zynga but still 10x less than Blizzard or EA and 2x less than Ubisoft.

I don't know anything about investing. I stick to ETFs but I like to gamble here and there. I am already 10x on CDR stock (bought when I've noticed some of my friends were praising and playing Witcher despite not hearing much about Poland at all) but I am wondering if it being a company listed in a small market (Polish Exchange) but also being internationally known company with big game titles may still mean it's undervalued as a lot of investors didn't/doesn't have easy way to invest in it or it's not even on their radar.

Any hints how to approach it?

Interesting idea here: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/i...TA_REIT/142346

Their profit went down 50% YoY. Sales down by 1/3.
They have a profitable gaming studio with aging titles and gog.com, which makes no profit (but is an excellent product).
Buy ATVI while it's down and consolidating if you want a gaming stock.

NTS.v dropping today after earnings.

"Management continues to support manufacturing partner Hueck Folien in an ongoing effort to improve the quality of its production, however, we are not anticipating any volume OTF revenue this year"

Yeah, that'll do it.

Is ATVI a good stock to hold? Their ROE is very low.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk

No doubt the killer was when the CEO used the words "foreseeable future" when it came to the period they expect to have no income from the China deal.

Once he said that I figured we'd get a bloodbath. Always wonder how it would have gone if Hueck-Folien had sorted that out. Tough break.

Does that mean you are exiting your position?

Consider this

As we've discussed previously, basic tax advice generally favors deferring taxes as long as possible, so I've been tilting towards stocks that don't pay a dividend in my taxable accounts. But I haven't figured out the best way to go about it exactly.

Of course a lot of tech/growth stocks fit the bill right now, but I want to diversify across industries as much as possible. Plus often times those growth stocks will start paying dividends down the road once their growth prospects slow down (a la MSFT or CSCO).

So I'm especially interested in companies like Berkshire or Markel, "value" oriented companies that are committed to not paying a dividend since they understand that buybacks are a more tax-efficient method of returning cash to shareholders. Are there any other BRK/MKL-esque companies out there? Or how about a list of all stocks that don't pay a dividend? I've done a lot of looking, and I'm surprised there isn't an ETF/index fund to handle this passively.

n00b,

I'm not sure if this is exactly what you're looking for but Vanguard does offer some tax managed mutual funds. Here's one example: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...overview/vtmsx

It is reasonably more tax efficient than its counterpart, VB

Kind of a random stock related observation that may not belong here, but this Nike advertising campaign with Kapernick is f*cking brilliant.

by what measure?

Yeah, my armchair valuation (comparing to other companies and eye-balling how much hype there is for their new games) told me it's overvalued so I sold it a few days after making that post. I don't see any good bets on Polish stock market anymore right now.

I still like TSMC as they are main partner for AMD/Apple/Nvidia which are all eating Intel's market share. I am not selling AMD either.

Their core customers are black kids. By going to go where Adidas and Under Armor wouldn't go, they gained a tremendous amount of credibility for their brand.

Are the demographics broken down somewhere?

Will this credibility affect the stock price?

Yep, three birds with one stone. Public losing of customers a sports/lifestyle brand wouldn't want to be associated with anyway (semi-racist MAGA ****s), some momentum versus its more important groups (international, relatively rich coast-USA, younger people, those who shifted towards Adidas/Yeezy in previous 5yrs) and to top it off by showing they stick with their athletes it ensures they will have a better shot at signing the Serena Williams'es / Lebron's of tomorrow. Simply brilliant.

No, intuitively it makes sense and then I saw a tweet from @FondaJLee who apparently worked in corporate strategy for Nike and was saying that their most loyal and lucrative core customers are black kids, but I haven't seen any data that breaks down the demographics. If you find something let me know.

@Formula72: I would think so, I mean at the end of the day they're in the business of selling sneakers. Marketing is everything for their business, the sneakers themselves cost very little to manufacture and they're selling them for hundreds of dollars, so anything that reinforces their marketing credibility and sells more sneakers should impact the stock price.

And Sokz, I agree. I am friends with a lot of Trump supporters. Something they all have in common? They're basically a bunch of racists and they don't watch the NBA or buy Nike apparel. That's anecdotal, but I mean at the end of the day I just don't think a boycott from a bunch of pissed off #MAGAers is going to outweigh the sales boost they'll get from their core customers.

The problem with trying to fade Trump/MAGA is that you have to REALLY parse through the numbers/facts/data to make sure you are correct, because fading Trump/MAGA has been the absolute nut low since 2015 regardless of your opinion of it. For anything politics related, it's really hard to not let emotion cloud your judgment especially when you're trying to find an excuse to fade perceived Nazis and racists.

And the numbers don't support your intuition:


This is my take on it. Trump is about to initiate a 260B+ tariff on China which will be ruinous to NKE's infrastructure because an immovable portion of their supply chain currently relies on the China/SEAN infrastructure. So NKE wants to first and foremost renegotiate with the Chinese government to compensate for the incoming tariffs by taking a firm side against Trump, and possibly get a one time cash grab from the demographics that side against Trump and buy NKE. Longer term, I think they will try to reduce their exposure to China/SEAN.

My guess is that they ran the numbers and decided that loss of sales from the MAGA crowd is not as ruinous as the destruction of their supply chain before they are ready to move it out. Especially so if you can get a one time cash grab from the anti-Trumpers.

Taking a non-serious position in shorting NKE via selling long term calls. Will cover if it moves against me by 100%+.