Good, I had a chunk of my NTS at 1.60 and bought it back at 1.35 yesterday; glad we're doing well this quarter.

Literally exactly the Q they telegraphed. So they're talking increasing revs by 15-20% without China. If/when China goes to print it's jenga time.

Since they have zero debt and zero burn now, I think we just wait on the deals to close/expand now. Nothing much to do.

Should we be concerned that they're falling behind on their timeline with China and making projections with that deal excluded? Is the HF partnership going to become a liability if that demand never materializes?

I'd personally still be completely fine with this even without China. China is the obvious massive fist pump because of the gigantic share it represents to their EBITDA boost and immediate returns for shareholders. But you can't have listened to that call and not heard the massive range of irons in the fire they have going now (8 quarter time frame) . Most people working with them are trying to expand deal sizes. The tax stamp market is juuuust starting (even if it's not an immediate windfall). They're just starting to look at products now with the much shorter rev cycles. I think there's no point in being worried here because of how early this all is. I thought I was early back when I bought, but honestly even now we're in the very infancy of this and the applications it can be applied to.

I think where investing in this is trying is the length of these contract cycles, and the secrecy involved. You can't pump things up much with press releases, you can't reveal too much even when you do land a whale. That's undoubtedly had some effect on share price. But I think they're doing things right now when they under-promise and over-deliver. They used to do the opposite and it burned them. Now I'm content to see this new mode of operations. Also awesome they're gonna sell tactical and shift those headcounts over. They need those 5 bodies working these areas now.

If you want just one person's very random opinion on China and HF, I think you have to look at it more like this: No foreign country to my understanding has ever gotten themselves into the position that NTS is with no with regards to Chinese banknotes. It's historic, but obviously the Chinese are going to be extremely demanding before maybe a 20+ year relationship. So when this thing does work (and I believe it will), I think we can be SURE of the length and scope of the income. To me the day that's announced I'd probably double my position size and it's already fat. I'd also think that HF is exactly who they want to be in bed with in this industry.

Took a nice sized position in MX on Friday. There's a write-up on Seeking Alpha from this summer that put the stock on my radar and after that they had a very good Q3. I think someone has been dumping shares over the past month; there's been no substantial news since then. Good insider activity, good management and good growth potential for 2018. Probably 50% upside at the current price.

I want to try NTS.V. There are two different stocks. Does it matter which one I pick?

HTZ calls and STRP puts expire worthless.

Liquidated SLP for 125% gain over 2ish years. Not bad and it ended up being over 35% of my portfolio so too much risk for me. Dumping it all to create some runway for the TSLA short and to get into more ORBT, AGO and a few other positions that I'm considering.

Current longs (based on size)
AGO, DS, DDS, RAD, PDEX, FELP, ORBT, MGM, DGLY, PRSC preferreds
Short: TSLA
Long Calls: DS, DDS

Added CBK. Going back to my roots of being boring long value + catalyst opportunity.

Current longs (based on size)
AGO, DS, DDS, RAD, PDEX, FELP, CBK, ORBT, MGM, DGLY, PRSC preferreds
Short: TSLA
Long Calls: DS, DDS

What is the catalyst on CBK?

Put all my eggs in the ASP.TO basket.

The stock gave back some huge gains over the last couple weeks but the company appears to be rolling.

I highly suspect that the current management and board, all installed by an activist investor group, is preparing the company to get bought out by private equity either this year or next year.

Seems as subtle as a brick through a window:

https://www.macellumcapitalmanagemen...and-mr-duskin/

Just doing some googling on Macellum and Jonathan Duskin, it doesn't seem their track record in distressed retail is...enviable. Of course these are very one-sided accounts and I don't really have time to get into the weeds too much today.

90% gain off the lows. I'm up 50% myself now of my core position. The distressed plays were the way to go, specifically because they were never in as bad a spot as people thought. $60 barrel makes them profitable.

Not sure what my sell target is for most of my core. We're at $1.24 now.

NVTR released preliminary 4Q rev $11.5 - 12mil against an estimate of $8.4mil, a huge beat.

Another oil service, TCW.TO looks good as well.

Back in early 2016 Ahnuld posted the following on Newalta. Seems like a stretch right now but if oil goes $75+ could see a return to $10 share price...



Well E&P companies are so stressed right now that they are retaining waste water on site, delaying cleaning out tanks, anything to conserve cash. This can only continue for so long as oil companies have a limited ability to do this in house and after a few months need to utilise 3rd party guys like NAL. So were looking at Q3 and Q4 being worse than most peoples floor expectations purely due to short term stuff that cant be deferred much longer. Thus results in 2016 can be better than second half 2015 even if oil doesnt recover.

Now im not betting on oil staying under 40$. I think thats pretty much impossible past one more year as producers will start going bankrupt en masse. But its not that relevant as what matters for NAL is really activity levels. So when activity picks up a bit so will NALs revenues. When does that happen? My guess is towards the end of 2016. So its some time to wait but luckily NAL mostly has termed out debt and very little bank debt (which they already got waivers on the covenants until 2017) so there is no immediate risk of bankruptcy.

If oil goes back towards a 55-60 level I think its pretty likely this becomes a $15 stock again and something like 45-55 should see it back to $10. worst case is bankruptcy in 2 or 3 years obviously but just run out a probability analysis and it becomes very compelling.

Best guess in 24 months is:

oil at $30 = 0 stockprice = 20% odds
oil at $45-55 = 10$ = 25%
oil at $55-65 = $15 = 40%
oil north of $65 = 20 = 15%

means target price is = $11.50 vs $3.50 today

i'm only 90% sure since i haven't followed it closely but i seem to remember them doing a pretty big capital raise some time ago. so i think those numbers are off.

plus that analysis is two years old. wouldn't rely on that.

nobody doubts it would be a $5-$10 stock if enough quarters passed at $60-$70 (btw the CEO is the one who said last earnings that they needed closer to $60 to begin generating a profit).

My concern is how many Q's can oil stay above $55-$60 before it faces the plunge to $30 or less as renewables and batteries chip away at the pie. We know thats coming. Can the risk premium in oil right now float the barrel for quite a while? No idea. But either way at these levels I still love NAL.

It will be at least ten years or more until renewables & EV's have a material impact on the demand for oil.

Maybe you should head over to CES this year. Fisker presenting their new battery.

400-500 miles on a charge, charge the same time as it takes to fill a tank with gas.

https://www.topspeed.com/cars/car-ne...-ar179150.html

Coming to market in 2019 in low volume, and big volume 2020. It's not so much that model car that matters. It's the battery tech.

Have heard so many claims over the years. Back in 2000 it was Ballard & fuel cells. Can the grid handle this? If true Tesla should be very rapidly heading to zero right now.

Oil is super sentiment driven, you know that. When these cars and batteries come along, you don't need the whole world to switch over to them. You only need a few percent of the cars on the road to (and yes I know that new demand could offset some of that). In my opinion at that point the writing is on the wall and sentiment turns. If you're asking if the grid can handle say 500,000k cars like this in year 1, you know it can. One of the main issues with the grid is that power can't be stored well. It's got to be used or exported, or wasted. We've got tons of power waiting to be used for these. But what's more, as battery tech improves we can charge things in periods of low consumption to use them better later. Will it work great in year 1? Probably not. But once the press starts running articles about this stuff non-stop, the outflow from oil into other sectors will be crushing.

That's my take, happy to entertain another one. Risk premium has to cut both ways.

yes this is in no way accurate anymore.

Probably has a long way to run from here, but I have no faith in the CEO John Barkhouse. FWIW the bonds havent really moved with the 2021s still at 80c on the dollar. that tells you something

A lot of the torque was from CHOPS wells (cold heavy) coming back and with heavy spreads having blown out the $64 WTI price doesnt mean much to CHOPS producers.

Different view on Cdn heavy wrt WCS and Newalta...

From the Eight Capital report...

• Our big out of consensus call: We are bullish on Western Canadian Select (WCS) pricing. We believe the current differential of US$25/Bbl is unsustainably wide because: A) The rail bottlenecks are temporary and typically clear out around late Q1, early Q2; B) Multiple sources state that the Keystone mainline is back at full rates, which should help reduce Alberta storage levels and mitigate large apportionments on the Enbridge mainline; and C) Shell's 255 MBbl/d Scotford upgrader had a one month unplanned outage in late November. Additionally, we note that Latin American heavy oil exports to the U.S. have been on a significant decline over the past seven years owing to falling production in Mexico and Venezuela. Plus Venezuela's economic woes are likely to continue to negatively impact its production, which recently hit a low not seen since 2003. This is important because the quality of WCS is similar to that of the heavy oil production coming from Mexico and Venezuela. With the U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest refining complexes being large consumers of this type of heavy oil, we see this being a further benefit to WCS, which is why we expect to see differentials narrowing dramatically from the current US$25/Bbl Spot price in Q2/18 and beyond. BUY rated ATH, MEG, and to some extent CNQ are our best ideas on this. NEUTRAL rated BTE should also benefit.

Length of the news cycles/earning cycles certainly rearing it's head with NTS. Bit frustrating because the time holding those shares was basically wasted since I never sold any of the gains. Makes for an interesting plan on how to best own it going forward now though.

Anyway nothing to do but hold here. It's a shame because the fundamental story hasn't changed, but some investors probably losing patience with other spots in the marketing performing so well.

Anyone looking at $SWN?



FCF terrible, but at 8x earnings and w probably growing income for the next years, it's hard to pass to me...

What am I missing?

Nat gas and oil seems they'll keep having momentum, thanks to the weak dollar...