Management does a horrible job at correctly leveraging the product and you have rivals that have been slowly chipping away at their advantages in the live arena (Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, even Weibo).

It's always been an interactive news feed, the media & most public figures have to use it at least semi regularly. There has to be a way to correctly curate that content so advertisers are happy. Moments has been a joke so far. Periscope has plenty of rivals as well so where is the growth going to come from? It's maturing far faster than anyone anticipated at the IPO & it's reflected in where it's trading now.

For the record the options market was quite active on the upside before that deal in LNKD, it's been very quiet in TWTR since. It's still only a couple bucks off the ATL, there could be more downside ahead even with that decent cash total.

I have no idea how to correctly value twitter but I know a lot of people who buy a lot of online ads and I've never heard of anyone effectively using Twitter ads to turn a profit. I think something that is often forgotten is the mindset of the person when they are on twitter compared to some of the other social platforms. Twitter lends itself more to getting in and out of the app while standing in line or killing 2 minutes. I think this makes it difficult from an advertiser point of view because the nature of the beast is that the users are less engaged and have a shorter attention span, and I think that makes it more difficult to advertise there which hurts Twitter's profitability.

Twitter could make decent money in the future but it needs to improve its offering.

I don't agree with the way Facebook is run but you cant argue with its money making abilty. That ability is due to its popularity and what people share with it.

Twitter needs to get people to enjoy using it more and engage more with it. Current management appears not too great at doing that. The whole thing needs a revamp.

No longer the case in the options market. Posted this in the trading thread, "TWTR IV has been exploding both today & over the past couple of weeks off really low levels (tons of call buying both ITM & OTM mostly targeting December). Deal or oversold turning point?"

Unusual activity strikes again, congrats to the shareholders in this thread. Patience paid off for anyone who wasn't a longer term bagholder.

I love Twitter and use it regularly but its amazing to me how poorly the product has been developed.

Update: Still no.

Not even worth looking at until they get new management. Jack Dorsey is a good at starting companies, not so great at running them.

All in for net worth + margin!!! Disney has to buy them now...

Good time to bump this thread, now that it's had this huge run back to the IPO list price of $45, what next? There is no doubting this platform's staying power and the use it generates from a lot of the world's most important people and businesses. Even though it's now profitable, growth has stalled (not just domestically). They are getting better at embedding ads in videos without being too out of line, not sure how effective they've been though which is where you really have to give Facebook/Google a lot of credit.

Technically it looks great although its obviously severely overbought short term. All time high is at $74.73 set after the IPO run in December 2013, low is $13.73 from May 2016 so we're sitting pretty much in the middle of the historical range even if more time has been spent hanging out at the lower end.

i picked it for the year-long contest and sold my real shares last week for ~43,80 from 18ish almost exactly 2 years ago.

still think there's more room but i have other positions i like better at this price and don't feel comfortable with holding extreme high p/e tech. but i'm usually bad and too early on those exits (abysmally so, hi fb, hi ttwo), so take that with a grain of salt.

i don't really see how they can grow organically from here (except from their core business, but i don't see huge numbers there). their live video didn't really work out and anorganically their pockets are rather empty compared to the bigger players. only catalyst i see would be a takeover, but i suck at forecasting those.

20% of twitter's accounts are fakes?!?! NO WAY. This reaction seems really stupid, getting rid of the spam is only a good thing for the long term health of the platform. Not like these accounts were providing real engagement and/or revenue. I'm actually looking at some short term risk reversals as the way to play it, it's had a huge move the past few months so not sure buying calls/spread outright seems like a smart play. Expecting some consolidation here in the $40s but the uptrend remains in tact.

Your take (and your hilarious "uptrend is still intact") seems a little myopic

This is Twitter monthly active users:



336 million before the great unbotting. 70 million accounts blocked already (bots tend to be active) in the last two months and they're still going in July at a rate of a million a day. Basically:

- Minimum 20% of active accounts are not real
- The rate of account deletion has not slowed down according to reports, so we don't have an upper bound. >25% without a doubt.
- Fake account level is greater than three year's worth of growth in MAUs. Let that sink in.
- Weak growth may in fact be non-existent; Twitter could actually be in decline in terms of MAU, which blows apart the already weak growth story justifying multiples.

These are 100 million+ real eyeballs that were potentially monetizable in hedge fund models that now officially don't exist.

Lol cool story bro, the technical uptrend is still in tact but since you don't believe in technicals (lmao) it's a pointless discussion. I also think user growth specifically for Twitter doesn't matter as much as engagement and RPU or revenue per user which will obviously go a lot higher on this news. It's just a short term trade, relax.

I think you can better serve your advertisers when you provide them data that isn't influenced by a ton of spam and bots, plus who as a user browses on search and likes to see every trending topic get watered down with crap posts?

Oh and TS any hedge fund that uses the service and was modeling the active users to be totally legitimate probably deserves to have a day like this because that is a terrible thesis lol. User growth isn't why the stock went from $15 to $45 because as you point out from that graph it had/has been slowing for a couple years now and decelerating since the IPO. The company just became profitable and was added to S&P, revenue continues to exceed expectations. I also think SNAP floundering has made it look a lot better in comparison. Plenty of reasons that have nothing to do with how many users are reported and in fact I'd argue this makes the company more attractive for advertisers because they will have a better feel for who they are reaching. Sure the burner accounts and spam will continue to be an issue but this is a good step that was long overdue.

This news brings up three issues as I see it:

- Confirmation on a huge number of fake accounts and a big problem with spam and bots. Before this could merely be guessed at; now we have concrete confirmation of the problem and it's enormous

- The change in accounting this necessitates putting a pall over the stock. Did they grow sans fake accounts? Probably not; in terms of real users they likely shrank and this discussion will dull upside for a while.

- The fact that they're trying to improve their platform (or being forced to by bad election PR) might be a positive. It might also be a negative in reducing engagement among its most hardcore users. A bit like 10+ tablers are good on poker sites; not as ideal as fish, but the sites still like them. We don't know what effect a purge this size will have. Perhaps it will improve things and perhaps it will simply cause new bots to rush in.

Anyway, breaking news just ripped Twitter 2% in the last few minutes, a denial of the article (fake news?)