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Turnaround stocks Turnaround stocks

01-19-2022 , 03:36 PM
this is something I have got interested in recently and I will endevour to make alot of comments in this new thread, if the mods allow the thread.

so many turnaround candidates with the covid killing B&M business.

generally I'd be looking for turnarounds independent of COVID (not sure that made sense... but pure turnarounds)..

2 I am looking at right now are:

Global Payments GPN...shocked at how cheap this stock is on 1 year FWD EPS and given its growth rate. it has had acquisitions........ great inflation hedge like V, MA and AXP.... GPN gets paid partially as a % of $$$$ through its terminals.

Baxter BAX ....... Wall Street is all over this as a turnaround.

at first I'd just like to get some good turnaround names up here to be further researched.

I will add 3 more names tentatively....... Dell, HPE, HPQ..... all very cheap and arguably not in bad shape. the first 2 have big computer service pieces. would they make good acquisitions for cloud companies?
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01-19-2022 , 03:45 PM
a couple more:

for the "feihnt of heart", BHC, the old Valiant.

DXC.. more work needed.

I'm motivated by books I've read recently on 100 baggers..

alot of 100 baggers are "semi-hindsight obvious" stocks that will keep going up... AMZN, GOOG, FB. and these stocks did 100 baggers after being big companies. AAPL, MSFT... one I like today is VEEV, cloud computing for health care. makes tons and tons of sense.

turnarounds are another big category...... Peter Lynch's most famous stock by far was Chrysler out of the 1981 recession and Lee Iacocca's great stewardship.. so that's where these stocks fit in.

one "100 bagger" book has a stock Autozone that did 100 bagger to large degree from stock buybacks. that is impressive.
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01-19-2022 , 04:25 PM
these are NOT turnaround stocks...

but insurance companies always seem insanely cheap to me... and I think they do very well on the whole financially.

some worries about health insurers. and it's existential risk that they won't be needed sometime in the future.

you never know with the democrats, but you'd think the "extreme progressivism" (nationalized healthcare" will be off the table in the near-to-moderate future.
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01-19-2022 , 04:34 PM
nice to see threads like this in bfi again
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01-19-2022 , 05:56 PM
thanks rick......

and. not sure, i described it correctly.. but FANG stocks are not 100 bagger candidates today.....

although i will say FB and GOOG seem to constantly have 25-30x P/E and 20-25% growth forecasts and year/year historical growth...... it just seems like if a stock trades at 25x and is growth at 20%. in 5 years, the earnings will 2.5x today.... so you have $25 stock today, apply basic market multiplier (20x....even higher?) to $2.50 eps = a double with no p/e expansion..... so many other tech stocks great performance has had to do with multiple expansion. i love rolling earnings growth forward. surprised it is that simple or has been... of course, like everyone i think every year "maybe this won't work in future".
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01-19-2022 , 05:57 PM
i'll get a bunch. more tickers and work on them.

i subscribe to finviz.com which i love.. great screener/download feature. i wish they had 3 year or 5 year stock price performance.. that's what i really need.. or stock price to all-time high.
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01-19-2022 , 09:04 PM
Those companies sure do grow. That GPN VEEV are interesting. This Russian payments company QIWI is still dropping and a 15% dividend yield now. Consistent revenue and dividend growth. See revenue growth since 2018, dividend many years. I guess nobody believes the books. Weird stuff. I have a small position in my long-term and might add more if it keeps dropping. Risky and only worthy of a small position but the dividend is worth the wait for me.
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01-19-2022 , 10:37 PM
the VEEV does seem like a "in hindsight it'll be obvious it was great buy" stock right now.

the leader in healthcare cloud services (apparently).

cloud stocks services are so hot but seems like AMZN and MSFT are taking most of the generic action. maybe some GOOG too.

so we need to find companies that can find large vertical cloud markets.

VEEV was started by former senior CRM (Salesforce.com) executives who found that CRM's healthcare offerings were specialized enough.

VEEV can be a health care cloud and CRM stock.... seems like there would be very long runway on this company's growth.

VEEV is not some unknown name but any stretch........ but neither were the FANG stocks before they went on enormous runs.

anyway, I'm thinking of asking mod's to maybe change this to "high potential stocks" as title or something like that
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01-20-2022 , 02:51 PM
For industry specific cloud services I’ve been looking at AXON.

Company that makes TASERs but their big thing now is providing cloud services for electronic evidence collection for police departments and law enforcement agencies. They own evidence.com which is apparently the #1 provider for PDs in the US.

This could be a pretty good growth space since everything is moving electronic, and courts/cops are one of the slowest lagging spaces in converting to digital. Body cam laws and requirements are becoming more and more common and they need a place to store all that data, verify it, distribute it to defendants in a secure manner.

The big prize would be to get a contract with the Feds. State and local budgets are a drop in the bucket with that money. As far as I can tell there’s no official or government wide provider for places like FBI, DEA, or the court systems yet. I would think it’s likely that at some point a single Federal wide provider will get some fat contract, and this seems like the best positioned company to get it.

Not exactly a rebound, as they’ve already grown a lot the past two years, but still sitting at around 10B cap and down 25-30% from ATH.
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