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TSLA showing cracks?

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10-02-2017 , 08:04 AM

#2426

Spurious

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 18,593

I agree with you to some extent and it's not that difficult to gauge how large the customer potential is. The reality is that it would work for the standard routes but it would not be a mass market product at $5k. It would also be not super frequent.

Quote

10-02-2017 , 08:27 AM

#2427

heltok

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,695

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

What pays for this infrastructure in a wealthy-only service?

Satellites.

Quote

10-02-2017 , 08:29 AM

#2428

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Yeah if Musk can launch enough satellites to compete with cable companies and ISPs he will be able to cash in bigly

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10-02-2017 , 10:16 AM

#2429

juan valdez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,686

Quote:

Originally Posted by heltok

We will see.

this isn't a we will see statement. the stock is down 10% while the market hits record highs day after day. musk starts releasing stories of colonizing mars and other pet projects. this is nothing new. i'm not hating him for taking advantage of his skills. how many CEO's are as famous as musk who hasn't even turned a profit?

he's a master promoter which is a big benefit to the company but it also has the ability to inflate the price of his stock when a disproportionate number of people buy in to his vision and discount the risk of not getting there

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10-02-2017 , 10:34 AM

#2430

Mihkel05

banned

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 4,835

Well he has never delivered on a single promise. So I guess there could always be a first.

My real q is just about the number of people he kills due to laziness/dishonesty and how many more times he gets popped for obv fraud. Maybe he'll get wrapped up like he should have for the massive corruption with ZEV credits.

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10-02-2017 , 10:41 AM

#2431

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Musk gettin dem haters absolutely furious

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10-02-2017 , 10:51 AM

#2432

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

No more than we dislike Bernie Madoff, or snake oil salesman, or fraudulent accounting, or pump and dumpers, or people that cause massive environmental pollution so that rich people can have expensive fun sports cars. There's nothing special to the dislike of Musk.

In other news, more analysts finally weighing in on something I claimed a long time ago - that GM are crushing Tesla in autonomous driving:

Quote:

Deutsche Bank doubles down on its bullish view of General Motors (NYSE:GM) in a new note to clients that highlights the huge upside potential from the expanding autonomous vehicle program.

The investment firm expects autonomous vehicles to be rolled out much sooner than expected and sees GM as well-positioned to benefit.

On an interesting note for shareholders, DB says GM management didn't refute the logic of a mobility business spinoff.

GM up 4.5% day on top of earlier gains last week. Morons who bought into Musk's autonomous driving fraud (pretty much anyone pro-Tesla in this thread) are in for a shock.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 10-02-2017 at 11:03 AM.

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10-02-2017 , 10:59 AM

#2433

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

COMPLETELY FURIOUS

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10-02-2017 , 11:02 AM

#2434

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorKeeed

COMPLETELY FURIOUS

You know the other side is getting pozzed to death with logic when they're resorting to silly defenses of their cult leader hero. And posting absurd rocket ship videos in a car company thread.

I HAVE NO COMEBACK SO I'LL POST MEMES IN CAPS IN AN INVESTING THREAD WHILE THE STOCK GOES DOWN OOPS I SHOULD HAVE SOLD AT $380 WHEN THE NASTY MAN TOLD ME YOU'D BE NUTS NOT TO SELL SILLY ME.

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10-02-2017 , 11:08 AM

#2435

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

**** man I don't own any TSLA but I'm pulling for this Elton Musk guy just to see how mad you can get. Preliminary results suggest QUITE MAD

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10-02-2017 , 11:47 AM

#2436

heltok

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,695

Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

this isn't a we will see statement.

As for it being a statement, Q3 numbers will come soon and we will see if the statement I was quoting was true or not:

Quote:

you know things are stagnant or not going well when he starts talking about colonizing other planets and other pet projects that are pure fantasy at this point

Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

the stock is down 10% while the market hits record highs day after day. musk starts releasing stories of colonizing mars and other pet projects.

He has been pretty open about his plan to colonize mars and this is event was not that spontaneous. Elon talks about things all the time, imo it seems a bit uncorrelated with TSLA's performance the weeks before.

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10-02-2017 , 01:12 PM

#2437

juan valdez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,686

you just highlighted your insistence to redefine my comments

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10-02-2017 , 02:56 PM

#2438

NxtWrldChamp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 9,082

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

In other news, more analysts finally weighing in on something I claimed a long time ago - that GM are crushing Tesla in autonomous driving:

GM up 4.5% day on top of earlier gains last week. Morons who bought into Musk's autonomous driving fraud (pretty much anyone pro-Tesla in this thread) are in for a shock.

In other news as in the same news you posted 7 days ago? The article below was also based on a DB analysts opinion of GM. Now it's more news when another(?) DB analysts says some more stuff?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Your truly, far ahead of groupthink analysts:

Has GM Quietly Taken The Lead In Autonomous Vehicles?

GM has autonomous fleets going live right now. Their research budget is a rounding error for them and a fortune for Tesla.

Those of you who swallowed Musk's BS on autonomous driving better start rethinking your positions. You've been mind-pozzed by a charlatan.

More and more articles will come out like this, since it's obvious (and has been for a long time to anyone with a functioning brain) that the majors are far ahead of the likes of Tesla in autonomous driving.

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10-02-2017 , 03:13 PM

#2439

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp

In other news as in the same news you posted 7 days ago? The article below was also based on a DB analysts opinion of GM. Now it's more news when another(?) DB analysts says some more stuff?

They issued a new note and double down with further analysis. It was enough to move a $60 billion usually very low volatility company up 5% today on the buzz. And 20% in a month.

It may seem like nothing to you (do you even trade?), but these views move stocks. And the break from the insane stock pumping groupthink on Tesla autonomy is interesting. They won't be the last.

Is it some evidence my view is correct and far ahead of the pack? Yes. Is it the final word? No, far from it. But you'll see more of these coming out.

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10-02-2017 , 04:36 PM

#2440

Spurious

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 18,593

Today I learned that investment banking research analysts are the number one indicator of who is ahead in the race for autonomous cars.

We will see who is ahead. Tesla is certainly the first company to put out a mass market product that the competition only now gets around to.

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10-02-2017 , 04:46 PM

#2441

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spurious

Today I learned that investment banking research analysts are the number one indicator of who is ahead in the race for autonomous cars.

We will see who is ahead. Tesla is certainly the first company to put out a mass market product that the competition only now gets around to.

WTF? GM has fully autonomous hailable ride sharing working in inner cities on a large scale (its employees), and is ramping up.

Tesla has a slightly more advanced version of 10 year old highway driver assistance (lane following, changing) that doesn't even work without major dangerous flaws.

We know who is ahead. Tesla is many years behind.

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10-02-2017 , 04:56 PM

#2442

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

260 model 3s built in q3

Almost 3 a day, pretty solid

Quote

10-02-2017 , 05:06 PM

#2443

NxtWrldChamp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 9,082

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

It may seem like nothing to you (do you even trade?)

I trade as much TSLA stock as yourself currently

Quote

10-02-2017 , 08:21 PM

#2444

heltok

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,695

Quote:

Originally Posted by syndr0me

260 model 3s built in q3

Almost 3 a day, pretty solid

Yeah, that was lower than my estimate. Not sure how much information this gives on Q4 deliveries which is the most important number. At least we learned that VINs have lower fisher information than we thought.

Record number of delivered MS+MX is nice. Not sure how to interpret this one:

Quote:

Tesla's third-quarter deliveries were up slightly, year over year, and came in higher than production for the first time since late 2015

History

Quote:

Quarter Deliveries Production
Q3 '16 ~24,500 25,185
Q4 '16 ~22,200 24,882
Q1 '17 ~25,000 25,418
Q2 '17 ~22,000 25,708
Q3 '17 26,150 25,336

At least demand has not died.

I still think this graph will see some serious uptick for Q4 and Q1.

The after market -1% today seems reasonable to me.

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10-02-2017 , 10:08 PM

#2445

BooLoo

adept

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 945

well, tiny miss right there...

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10-02-2017 , 11:04 PM

#2446

heltok

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,695

Quote:

Originally Posted by BooLoo

well, tiny miss right there...

Yeah it is pretty tiny. From the Q2 call:

Quote:

Calculating the area under the curve is tricky when you're in an exponential. And it always starts out tiny. And then it blows up exponentially. Generally people have trouble wrapping their minds around an exponential. The natural tendency is to extrapolate on a straight line, and so -- and I'm sorry. It's really important to emphasize that this blowup is an exponential -- it does get into a linear zone and then it goes into a long curve.

Missing targets by a factor 5 may seem big on a linear scale but on an exponential scale it is not as big. It may just be a few weeks delay which seems like normal Tesla setting optimistic goals to push workers and suppliers extra hard.

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10-02-2017 , 11:07 PM

#2447

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 20,394

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spurious

We will see who is ahead. Tesla is certainly the first company to put out a mass market product that the competition only now gets around to.

Interesting idea of what mass market means.

Quote

10-03-2017 , 12:40 AM

#2448

heltok

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,695

Potential Tesla Semi being pulled by another Semi, the picture is not getting me any semi but with better camera and angle it might.

Quote

10-03-2017 , 01:18 AM

#2449

Spurious

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 18,593

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

Interesting idea of what mass market means.

Touche, I guess something like consumer car would have been more accurate. Nevertheless, hundred thousands of cars on the street with the capability is nothing to sneeze at.

Quote

10-03-2017 , 06:58 AM

#2450

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by heltok

Potential Tesla Semi being pulled by another Semi, the picture is not getting me any semi but with better camera and angle it might.

The only thing being pulled here is a Musk - fail massively at your production targets, constantly made later and later but still missed (compare with February, for example):

Quote:

Tesla stated early this year: "Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018." Later on the call, Musk revealed that suppliers are being told Model 3 targeted production run rates of 1000/wk in July, 2000/wk in August, and 4000/wk in September. And, he noted that Model 3 production should be up to 5000/wk towards the end of the year.

Then go: oh look! There's shiny solar roofs! A truck!

How ****ed in the head did you have to be to actually buy into this nonsense and not sell at $380?

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