Not to support 40~45% CAGR. If Model 3 is profitable out the gate, Tesla will need MASSIVE capital raises well beyond what the debt market will bear.

TSLA at all time high at 355, worth 40% more than for Ford. Easiest short ever right...

I think everyone agrees. Interactive Brokers have 40K of TSLA available to short right now. Not a typo. Typical shorts available for non small cap stocks are in the 10s of millions.

This is where Musk and his goons call back their borrows and send it higher

Well, everyone who's not a nutcase.

It was only a few months and 100+ points ago that TS was mocking people for buying at $245. Good times. Don't worry though, the permabears are definately right, either by the next great great depression or by the heat death of the universe, whichever comes first, they will be proven right though.

I'm going to double down on my mockery and mock you for holding at $357.

Will be interesting to hear what Tesla has to say about Model 3 launch in about 1.5h:
http://ir.tesla.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=182767

It's more FUD and vaporware. I'm sure it'll be slick though.

Crazy how hard it just keeps ripping on basically nothing but stories and fluff pieces

From the sharesholder meeting:

Are you even short? With so much conviction in your posts and all the time you spend on this i would figure you would put money where your mouth is...

No, I don't short Tesla (although I would gladly short here at $357, and would have at $277 if shorting was my thing).

I do however trade short term derivatives (minutes - hours) on news, both long and short. Tesla is my biggest earner (worth six figures/year, almost 7 a couple of years ago) so I follow all the news flows and arguments and forum threads in detail. I poke the bulls to see what they're thinking and how irrational they are.

I haven't made money on Tesla this year. I don't understand this market or the record setting low volatility since Trump, and there have been no major news events, so trading has been light.

I'll post a trade when something happens.

All my real retirement money is in low cost mutual funds, but I have a few grand sitting in an etrade account that I would consider "fun money" that I can play with and don't care if I lose. I've never shorted anything or bought options. If I wanted to bet a few thousand on tesla going down a significant amount over the next 6 months or a year, exactly how would I go about doing that?

Setup a no margin account on tdameritrade and buy to open put options

The price on them is ridiculous, like everyone but the bagholders knows this is going to end badly

Long term Tesla options are absurdly expensive. I don't even look at them. But at these highs maybe there's a bargain to be had. Who knows. Not my thing.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/407...ries-worldwide

Headline is clickbait. I watched the shareholder meeting, in my opinion not a lot of news came out of it.

Meh. If it requires opening a new account, and the biggest tesla bear in the thread says they are expensive, then I guess I'll pass.

Not sure why headline was clickbait, it was just some numbers from the presentation. Model Y capex half of Model 3 was pretty big imo. No production delays so far is probably what is driving up the price, analysts expected delays, no delays announced. But yes, most of it was known stuff.

Well, he answered a question (IIRC "how many gigafactories will there be?") and went on to say "10 to 12, maybe 20". It's clickbait because it was an obvious speculation on his side and nothing headline worthy. There are no definite plans yet. From the sound of it even for the next 3-5.

Model Y capex half of the costs of Model 3 was again more speculation than news. He has no concrete agenda and he didn't sound super confident in the way he presented this as a fact.

You can buy January 2019 $200 puts for $14. That gives you another year and a half to hit your $150 price target for a good return.

There are just better spots to shove your money in. Closer to the money and sooner. Couple of month puts have to be +EV here. Not enough to get excited though. It all depends on the market.

Guys when options are "expensive" you can/should use spreads to take advantage when you want to express a direction in a name like this.

http://www.investopedia.com/news/mor...oSA&yptr=yahoo

I love the Tesla vision of solar roofing to power the cars and subsidize powering the home. I really do believe it's the future. I think it can become both more convenient and stable. No more concerns of the grid going down for a week or trips to the pump

That said, the valuation of Tesla seems totally insane. I get the impression that Musk will just keep building the company and spending money. Sooner or later investors are going to expect some profits.

I'm getting shorter and shorter through buying put verticals every time the stock goes up $10. I think its a good idea to have an earnings prior to expiry since that seems to get investors to pay attention to things like profit and sensible valuation.

I think the entire auto industry is going to get pounded, but what do I know