Yeah except the price difference is completely fictional, a made up number to drive a story like every Musk number. This is nerd-Trump's equivalent Trump's 10 billion dollar net worth claims.

Musk promised Model S base model would sell for$49,999 and come out in 2009. The reality was $67,000 and and 2012:
These cars will cost over $40K to make, over $55K in including machining costs, which Musks doesn't include (and why the company loses money hand over fist with its claimed "gross margin"). Perhaps he will subsidize each Model S, but that will quickly become a financial disaster with any kind of volume.

heltok, why are you such a chump who swallows Musk bull**** whole? You've been lied to dozens of times by the charlatan Musk on timelines, costs, profits. He is either grossly incompetent at estimating costs, or he is deliberately lying to you.

I get that children and some adults need heros, and that's fine, but why treat him like Nerd Jesus, or Nerd Trump? Why take his lies on board with it, let alone repeat them? It just makes you look foolish. You're a smart guy and you should know better, frankly. You can still give Musk your love yet apply a little critical thinking to his claims. In fact, it's silly not to when you're an investor.

Nah I think it makes me look smart. He is honest and says that he sets optimistic guidelines to push his workers to work harder. If I didn't understand this simple logic I would look like a fool.

That he says 80k cars and only delivers 76,230 for 2016 is ok with me. Growth is still very very high. And I am fine with huge capex, 30% margins and still burning cash is totally fine with me. They now have more capital in form of a new factory etc.

Stock is near ATH and that is what counts.

heltok,

In your opinion, what are the possible pathways Tesla falls below 20b? Do you think they are levered up to a point where any major shocks would prove disastrous to the company?

Right. But here you are not trying to motivate workers. We are trying to discuss Tesla as an investment. Why breathlessly repeat the Musk spin (projected numbers which you already know and admit are false), and even go beyond it in terms of optimism? What is the point? This isn't a Musk fan club. It's an investing forum.

You realize the entire market is at all time highs? Every crap bull**** stock in the market has been ripping. The more shorted, the more it has been ripping. That is what happens in bull markets and it has nothing to do with the individual stock. If your thesis is "the market is going to keep going up, so Tesla is a good high beta trade", great.

If your thesis is "Tesla is going higher because the market believes its story", you're in for a rude shock.

Your comment is as silly as saying the Dogecoin is up 1000% and what matters is that it's at all time highs.

Large delays in Model 3 production, big recall etc. I would say it is pretty likely it will happen. It is a high risk investment, let's not kid ourself that it is not. That doesn't make the valuation incorrect, given that the potential upside may be magnitudes.

It's like when people asked me what the probability of Bitcoin failing was in 2013. I said 90%, but that the upside was 40M% so even with a low probability of success it was a good investment. And 5 years later Bitcoin is up 200x so if it just was a 1/200 chance of this happening, it was a good investment. And I believed it to be larger at that time. I kind of view Tesla the same way. I may be wrong about the outcome, I may be right out the probabilities and still be wrong about the outcome. And vice versa. It's a guessing game with uncertainties, fortunately we are on a forum where people have a lot of experience these kind of guessing games.

Tesla a future $10 trillion stock. You heard it first in this thread.

No we were discussing a hypothetical perfect execution scenario.

I do.



It's a bit too simplified, but I do think that fiat is going down and stocks are denominated in fiat.

I don't see this causation. But I do think that market believing it is an indication of the underlaying probability of it. There might be some feedback loop if capital raises are needed.

If you invested in Dogecoin, that is what matters. Not saying that it what's matters if you are gonna decide to hodl or not.

I find the probability of a "massive recall" to be rather unlikely (relative to typical car model launches) for Model 3, considering it's a watered down S.

Putting their horrible auto pilot in a car they are mass producing seems like a huge liability, so insane the valuation is what it is

I do.

[/quote]
Ok. You do also realize that large outsize returns is absolutely standard behavior for high beta stocks in a market that's ripping higher?

Even crap hype stock that ran up in every bubble had a graph that looked just like this.

I'm saying this so you realize that the move in Tesla means absolutely nothing with regards to how people view it. Tesla would be $200 rather than $340 had the market gone down rather than ripped on Trump, and the graph you posted would be mirrored vertically.

If you look at the 1 year, Tesla hasn't even beaten Apple or Netflix. I assume you don't think Netflix is a 200 bagger ($10 trillion company), and neither does the market. Yet they've bought it up hard. That's what happens in ripping bulls near market tops - the speculative crap gets bought up hard. Anything that has a high beta rips. The opposite happens when things turn bad.



I'm glad you're making money. I'd hate to see you lose it because you bought into the PR hype produced by a guy who's even more of a PR savvy fraud and charlatan and liar than Trump. So keep it in mind. If the market turns you will lose a lot of money very quickly. You're basically playing calls on SPY when you buy Tesla, with Tesla's multiple downside risks added in.

How people view Tesla means something to the move in the price.

Yeah, they also grew a lot. Is that only because the general market was growing also? Or is it because Netflix's number of new subscribers has been growing faster than expectations and Apple has continued to have very high revenue and high margins? I think that the stock price says something about what the crowd thinks about the past and the future. You don't?

heltok,

Do you think if the market cap falls 60% would the be able to continually raise secondaries like they have been to fuel growth or would this likely result in bankruptcy? (Aside from the fact you'd have lol dilution compared to the current status.)

Given that ToothSayer thought Tesla was gonna chill ~150 this year, glhf discussing his post hoc rationalization.

Next year, sir. I've still got over a year.

July 5th, 2016:
You know people don't have a leg to stand on when they have to make **** up. Deliberately I might add - you've been corrected on this one before.

It went through a long period of stagnation after that post, sliding down to $180 and losing 20%, and then ripped on Trump's win with the rest of QQQ, which is up a massive 31% since a year ago, which triggered a short squeeze on a high beta.

All I'm advocating here is that people not take this seriously. This is a market induced short squeeze, yet you're reading the truth of the bull thesis into it. Tesla will come down very hard if the market corrects, and you'll all lose a lot of money from where you are now. That's all. Be aware of it.

It did fall like 60% right? But yeah, I think Tesla would be fine without much extra capital after the Model 3 launch. Growth would take longer and be more riskier without it and give competitors time. Instead of Gigafactory3-6 this year we would see Gigafactory3 in two years or something like that. But I doubt Tencent would let that happen.

They don't even have the capital to build Gigafactory1 solo.

Of course their SDC program is one of the worst being publicly tested and SDC technology won't place massive downward pressure on auto sales. But w/e. No exogenous risks. To the moon!

I don't think a 60% drop matters in terms of their ability to finance via secondaries. People like heltok are glad to get bent over, it's a cult and they love Musk with all their soul. TSLA is a $50 billion penny stock in terms of psychology.

What will matter is a failure for Model 3 numbers to reach the hype (and even if they execute perfectly, there is still high risk of this happening - we're 9 years from the last recession, 10 by the time they start getting Model 3 out, and luxury goods get crushed in recessions).

If they reach a situation where they need secondaries with a strong whiff of failed sales projections in the air, that's what will send to stock back to $30 pretty fast.

Even bullish analysts think you'll have to pony up $40k+ to drive a Model 3 off the lot.

In my model I have ASP $45k. But that is average, not min. I am confident some will buy it for $35k. Myself I intend to pay much more for my number ~100k reservation. I assume some Californians standing in line will be paying much less including tax incentives before it runs out. What is your estimated ASP?

That range is brutal. I think there is a vast overestimation in the amount of people who can possibly own an EV at this time until their is massive infrastructure build out.

There is 100% certainty that a successful launch of Model 3 will lead to a massive capital raise.

Is there a scenario around Model 3 where Musk doesn't do a huge capital raise?

It's not like they will make profit at current prices. It's not like they can raise prices to make profit (Model 3 is already too expensive for the kind of volume they need).

Musk raises many billions of capital or he goes under, no matter what happens with Model 3.

No. He raises even more capital if model3 turns a profit.

This is headline worthy of Musk:

When model 3 turns a profit Tesla will be able to raise capital in non-dilutive fashion.

TSLA already raise capital in a non-dilutive fashion. It's not enough. They've accumulated $17 billion in liabilities. On top of that they needed to take their shareholders for another $8 billion.

With all this money it took them 10 years to produce 2% of the output of Ford, at a big loss.

Pretty sobering when you look at it that way.