Not sure if anything I said was incorrect. I just wanted to disprove that claim that a video has been proved to be faked by some data. Sure my example of what I had done might not fit the Tesla story. But my main argument was that we don't know, not that I know.

https://electrek.co/2017/05/09/tesla...fetime-double/
Decent progress! =)

Some competition:
https://electrek.co/2017/05/09/china...dustrial-park/

Presenting a convoluted and absurd explanation as just as reasonable as a more obvious theory is silly.

Specifying then whether you are correct/incorrect as if this was a discussion about some sort of binary is just intellectually dishonest.

Did the care never make the drives that it did in the video? Obviously it did. Did it require a huge amount of trial runs? Almost certainly. Is Tesla a wildly dishonest company that flouts SEC laws, sues the **** out of anyone who says anything remotely true about them, and engages in deceptive and borderline illegal business practices? Certainly. (But so do many other companies.) Given you'd agree with all those comments and don't think they have lied to CA about driving interventions (they have been claiming ZEV credits without any evidence they actually should have been, so this may be dubious), how can you possibly think that "manually intervened two orders of magnitude more than normal rate of interventions" is plausible?

Aliens were beaming down to sabotage Tesla and inhibit the Great Elon Musk from going to Mars via making their intervention data look bad could be a possible explanation as well. And more likely than what you proposed... we just don't know.

At least we agree on something. Maybe we will see soon, Elon was saying late 2017. It seems the latest OTA update make the car perform better:
https://twitter.com/clattner_llvm/st...68668573368320
Video from some user:

Yeah, curvy is very subjective I guess. But it seems like an improvement.

Musk gives the bull case for Tesla:

100 ambulance calls to a factory which employs 10,000 people over a 3 year stretch?

MOTHER OF GOD

(My wife works at a Verizon campus that has probably 1/10th of that amount of employees and i'd bet my life they have a higher ratio of ambulance calls to workers over that same time period. Not to mention 75%+ of the workforce are telephone operators in a call center not people working in a factory)

"More than 100" specifically for symptoms of severe overwork/lack of rest.

There are hundreds and probably thousands for injuries and (non-work) medical issues.

Anyway, this quote was why I posted it. It gets the bull in me fired up. I think you're ++++EV buying any $50 billion company whose CEO makes statements like this.

Let me introduce you to the average health of Americans... I assume factory workers health is even worse than average

Adam Jones (huge Tesla bull) confirmed moron:
"Emerging" competitor??? They are years of Tesla in autonomous driving, and always have been. Just goes to show the kind of nutty analysis that Tesla bulls do.

Anyway, it's interesting that even he is getting cold feet. This is his second negative commentary in as many weeks.

Why no post about the firing of god almighty, the Ford CEO (supposedly at least partially over their best in class autonomous driving program where the best talent in the world works)?

Didn't they pay like a billion dollars to some dude who made a website to watch people play video games for his "autonomous driving software"

no it isnt..

Looks like Tesla is still selling quite a few model S in the US.



Pretty impressive that Model S is about equal to Mercedes S class plus BMW 6 and 7 series plus Porsche Panamera.

I found the headline of the bloomberg article to be pretty misleading. Imo this is the big story:


Remember that Q1 had 10days downtime to prepare for Model 3.

This powerpoint had some cute graphs also:
http://www.sohnconference.org/wp-con...esentation.pdf

I guess the bears here will have some strong opinions on the validity of the slides, but the historical graphs are at least nice.

no one is disputing they are increasing the number of cars they sell over time. the points of contention are a) market share they will be able to capture and defend on a 5+ year horizon and b) the profitability of the vehicles they sell in the future. selling 12k cars abroad over the past year isnt particularly informative. ill also add that adding a global strategy into the mix as a path to growth presents a ton of challenges, esp if you think a viable moat is supercharger infrastructure. even if they produce an awesome, competitive car, there are a lot of incumbent interests to overcome abroad, plus just the geographical challenge of getting cost competitive vehicles to point of sale.

this slide deck almost itself appears to be bearish, just because of how crazy it is. they model 45% cagr in cars sold for the next 10 years at an ending gross margin of 20% (for point of reference ford gross margin was 16.5% last q, which is in line with its historical avg). this is not to mention the absurd tangent they go on comparing tesla cars to apple iphones. obv this was meant to be their bull case, but ideally it would be tethered to reality in some respects at least.

just as a general point, it seems like a lot of pushback on the bull side itt has to do with what tsla is capable of right now (battery tech and sdc specifically - although even those claims are disputed), but their success is going to be driven by how they are able to compete over the next 5-10 years. being a little ahead now is good, but how much does it really mean? as TS and others have pointed out many times, they are competing in intensely competitive spaces with major players in auto production, battery tech, and sdc capabilities; there just doesnt seem to be a good reason to believe they are going to be meaningfully better at any (let alone all) of these things in that time frame, and they are essentially priced to (at least) perfection for the time being.

The bull case for Tesla doesn't depend on Model S or X at all. For today's valuation to work out for a buyer, TSLA needs to ramp Model 3 into huge volumes in a short amount of time all without losing too much money per unit.

Not sure about this figure. From the graph the figure of 12k was for global sales of the Model X for the previous quarter. Which is a great figure imo. Bloomberg is trying to turn this figure into a failure(for the American market).

So there are a lot of assumptions here which the bear side will challenge. But the way I see it Tesla started far behind. A few years later they had caught up and were leader in the segment they were in(lux sedans). This is an indication that they have a positive gradient. Then they enter the mid price sedan market and instantly manage to get 400k reservations. This is an indication that their customers are very interested in their products. Together this is an indication that they are doing something better. I would go as far as to say that it seems that Tesla has a faster and better development department than their competitors. And they have been expanding it, so now their gradient is maybe even higher. If this enough to not go bust is another questions, but saying that they are not doing anything better is ignoring the numbers imo.

Imo this is not true. Just given their current estimates with a P/E 30 they should reach their current SP in like a year and that is only taking into account their car business. Perfection in their roof business and we are talking insane valuations:


Then perfection in storage, semi etc. But imo the biggest story in their valuation is the Model Y. That's the car they expect to mass manufacture. Perfection there we are talking 2-5M cars per year in like 5years.

Remember that I was talking about perfection, not about expectations or my own models. So bears please bear with me!

wait what? they are forecasting 10$ earnings next year?

Tesla is THE brand for FAST electric cars. That alone guarantees Tesla a significant boost in gross margins across the board. There is nobody else until BMW and it's likes go all in on EV, which they won't any time soon.

The more Leafs Nissan sells the better it is for Tesla.

Or maybe Elon actually takes heat for one of the number of amoral and borderline illegal things he's done and can't raise infinite money to get to the magical "perfection" scenario.

But I guess we can all dream that Tesla will make 5m cars by 2022 with basically no existing infrastructure.

My guess is that later this year, when they announce Gigafactory 3,4,5 and maybe 6, they will also announce a capital raise. I assume one of these factories will be the alien dreadnaught and it won't be cheap.

As for Alien Dreadnaught completion date, GF1 was announced late 2013 and is expected to be complete 2019 even though it was increased in size. So say perfection Alien Dreadnaught complete in 2023, with about 65%(like GF1) capacity in 2022. He said that he think the improvement is more than a factor of ten compared to the improvement of the car.

The Model Y has a factor of 10x less cables than the Model 3 and some other improvements in manufacturing. But lets be generous and say 10x improvement. If GF1+Freemont is 500k/year, then do the math. And then we have the other three gigafactories, maybe they will also be producing something.

Remember this is just a perfect scenario, not probable, just plausible.

well, as long as you are paying for it, i guess that's what they will do...
or... they will miss every target and deadline they set, like they always do.

I'm mildly amused at considering that "plausible". I guess if you think they manually created those interventions you can fool yourself into any scenario.

I'm also not sure Elon has ever made a 10x improvement in anything except his ability to avoid scandal as a borderline criminal CEO.

We will see who ends up paying for it. One guess is that Tencent could stomach gigafactory3 capex in China. And Tesla also have a credit line for DB. I expect a few more years with bears telling me that Tesla is losing money. But as long as stock keeps making new ATHs I will be happy =)

Pretty large price difference between the cars.