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Originally Posted by heltok
I am not super happy that Musk is spending time on his Boring company. But then I admit that I don't know very much about the math of it. Maybe he can bring down the costs by an order of magnitude like he did with space travel.
From what I understand (I couldn't give a crap about SpaceX as they haven't done anything interesting yet and won't for years), this is a false statement. Outrageously, hilariously, ridiculously, false.
From an article
last month in the NYT:
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How Much Cheaper? We do not know. Ms. Shotwell, the SpaceX executive, has suggested launches with reused boosters could be discounted, to 30 percent off the usual $62 million price tag. SES asked for 50 percent off. Both SpaceX and SES are private companies, and they have not divulged the negotiated going rate, except to acknowledge there was a discount.
Mr. Musk has suggested that rocket launches could eventually be much cheaper since the cost of the rocket propellants are less than 1 percent of the full-price ticket for a launch. So, if a rocket could be simply refueled like a jetliner for another flight, the cost of space travel could drop to a fraction of what it is now.
But the stresses of spaceflight on reused boosters — like the rising mileage on a used car, sometimes called “pre-owned” in today’s parlance — are much greater. The economics will depend on how many times a booster can be flown, and how much the individual expense will be to refurbish the booster — and particularly the engines — each time.
So the people claiming the he HAS reduced space flight cost by an order of magnitude seem to be completely fooled by more Musk propaganda/memes. The guy is truly nerd-Trump, a genius at self promotion to credulous idiots or casual observers. He hasn't brought down space flight costs much at all that I can see (please correct if I'm wrong), let alone an order of magnitude. There's a
belief that reliable usability - if everything goes absolutely perfectly and the best of assumptions pans out - could
eventually bring it down by half an order of magnitude. But this is as yet undone, the cost of refurbishing are unknown, as are the risks.
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Not sure how big or profitable it would be even then. But I haven't done any calculations so I don't really know. At least he is trying and he likely has done much more math about it than me.
Tunneling is orders of magnitude more complicated and complex and uncontrollable than building rockets. You're dealing with a complex and untestable external medium. Space and air is known and knowable and unchanging, and what's more, space travel is a tiny non-commercially-viable pork barrel industry, hence it probably had room for disruption, unlike the car market or the solar market.
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However it's not Tesla resources being spent but SpaceX and this new separate company with separate funding. So I don't think this affects my TSLA shares that much, it might even be positive the other company might bring attention to Tesla without spending Tesla resources.
IMO it's making him look like a loon,which is not good for Tesla.
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Looking forward to hearing more analysis and seeing what happens. But I will not dismiss the idea entirely at this point like I am doing with hydrogen cars.
Ok. Always interesting to hear your thoughts.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 04-29-2017 at 07:30 PM.