Overtaking GM with premarket:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/premarket

When upgrades start to talk about the fundamental picture being irrelevant especially in the short term, you realize how dangerous it is to own this name. Street has gone insane on growth, it's a huge bubble that will crash when the cycle finally winds down.

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I think it's very likely the stock retraces to the previous breakout point of $285 over the next couple weeks after topping, stock has been overbought on RSI for almost half of the last three months. Not sustainable, huge amount of chasing/squeezing going on up here.

Three weeks (28th) $305 puts are selling for $6.75. You buying?

If it's "very likely" (implying > 75%) to retrace to $285 that is paying 200% profit. Seems a no brainer if you believe what you're saying.

Even better return if you sell some calls to fund it.

I prefer something like a ratio put spread where we specifically target the previous breakout point to finance the trade given how expensive volatility is in this name. Not in a rush to jump in but something like the May 315/285 1x2 put spread. Risk reversals are a decent idea as well but I worry with a lack of immediate catalyst that we risk that upside call blowing up the position if the stock runs.

I'm just saying if you believe the thesis is "very likely", the market strongly disagrees with you and will pay you very well if you are right. You can just buy straight puts if you don't want the risk of selling calls.

I'm very much in favor of betting your strongly held theses at whatever size is acceptable risk to you. What's the point of having strong theses otherwise? You're being offered better than 3:1 on something that's much more likely than 1:1. Why on Earth wouldn't you put money on that? That's 100% positive expectation...on a three week time frame no less.

If you don't bet it, you either don't believe your stated thesis or you are crazy and don't like taking 100% +EV situations.

was thinking about a short side catalyst just yesterday. first real crack i see is if they miss model3 production in july. no sign for that yet, but given it is a new product and they have a habit of missing their goals, i give it a fairly high chance. earnings in may, even if they suck, are not gonna do damage. whoever is buying at this point doesn't care about the numbers anyway.
but delaying production by maybe a month or so, after they affirmed it to be on track, will damage the story. so if they are still at or above 300 in 1 or 2 months i might try something.

i'm just thinking about when they would announce problems if there are any.

Market will be the closest near term catalyst. People are going to fall over each other to take their profits if the markets starts correcting, no one likes to be up a ton and lose that money right back.

Implicit bias is strong in my trading history with this name. I've believed Tesla has been overvalued for years now so it's not a new feeling (& it's cost me money as a result obviously). So my opinion/feelings are probably irrelevant given I want to be even more stubborn as the stock breaks to all time highs (especially after breaking above that multi year range). That upgrade from Piper this morning is such a hilarious joke, I can't help but feel any other way. They cut EPS guidance and still upgraded telling their clients to get "creative" with the valuation. Sounds like something from 1999/2000, I'm sorry.

Price is all that matters in the end. Almost everyone long esp the long term holders have nice profits, that's the truth for now.

not sure where to put this because its not directly related, but if you're wondering how smart AI already is, read this very carefully
https://twitter.com/mholt6/status/851860069289304064


especially the end.


Now you know why Elon is terrified of AI enslaving humans.

$12 now! You had a good thesis.

You are misunderstanding the article.

Elon was busy yesterday:

What will the range be on a battery powered semi ?

They haven't talked about that yet. Here is some speculation:

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-...nvestment-roi/

I have no doubts tesla has the order taking process for new products down cold

Curious as to the bulls take on why tesla is slashing the price on the model S, I think its probably a good idea, but it doesnt really fit the production contrained thesis at all

That thesis has never made sense.

They didn't slash any prices right? They just made one upgrade cheaper and added some feature. Probably to make the difference vs the Model 3 larger. I think also the 60 was a a really good buy previously as it had the same battery(and thus better degradation, rechargeing at "full" battery etc), really good acceleration.

At current rate of production they might not actually be production constrained with MS/MX. With this they might get some extra orders until the Model 3 production starts in July when they will be production constrained with for probably at least 2 more years. So maybe this little price drop will make them production constrained again.

Also not sure that the production contrained thesis is exactly, seems like semantics which I generally don't like.

New ATH! =)
https://electrek.co/2017/04/25/tesla...feel-the-pain/

Meanwhile Waymo are starting some rather big deployment of self driving cars:
https://electrek.co/2017/04/25/waymo...pen-to-public/

Tesla cars downgraded by Consumer Reports this morning - the Model S lost top place (and went to third) and the Model X went to the bottom of its class (misized luxury SUV - it was already poorly rated and near the bottom of its class).

The reason? The morons at Tesla are so incompetent and dishonest that they can't even get emergency braking working on a $100,000 car despite promising it in the coming weeks for six months.

I repeat: their in-house team can't even get emergency braking working! After six months. A super simple standard feature that's existed for over a decade and is at the very bottom level of the autonomous driving stack.

Please, tell me again how they're ahead of everyone on autonomous driving. The people who claimed that they are, are frankly insane. Be sure to use idiot-exciting keywords like "machine learning" that nerd-Trump uses to fool idiots into thinking that he's got some special super secret Musk sauce he can sprinkle on things that will allow exponential progress in autonomous driving - hence being many years behind the other car makers in autonomous doesn't matter!

Fully Self Driving guys! Later this year. Just as soon as we get this emergency braking figured out! It's only been six months!

Anyone who claimed that Tesla is ahead on autonomous driving, or that Tesla are competent/honest, has zero credibility left and should just leave this thread...

A lot of robots are arriving at Tesla:
https://electrek.co/2017/04/25/tesla...line-pictures/


What do guys think about the front of the Model 3? I kind of like how different it looks. It will take some time getting used to, but then it will make other cars look a bit strange also. And really like when tech companies don't use skeuomorphism.

Whenever I look at it, I think: Ninja Turtle