It is <0.01% that your scenario comes to pass

Using HISTORICAL growth rates, Tesla should be selling 600-700k cars some time between 2020 and 2022. 20 to 30% margins however are basically unheard of in car industry (it's worse in utilities/commodity products like batteries). Probability of 600+k vehicles with those margins is basically zero.

I think a more realistic scenario is a combination of ~1.3 million cars with ~10-15% margins (extremely good numbers but not unheard of, basically something between Audi and Porsche in terms of margins and volume). You can make the case Tesla can achieve this by 2023-2025 at current growth rates. This is in part because, for whatever reason there may be, the incumbents still aren't investing in production quality pure EV "sports" vehicles. Even if incumbents start now, we're talking about 3-5 years minimum to get to production and then another 3-5 years (product cycle roughly) with Tesla retaining leadership and reaping most of the growth in luxury pure EV market. I think this is a reasonable scenario that has 20 to 50% probability. Another 20-40% probability that Tesla ends up being a much smaller niche player along the lines of Porsche. And rest of the probability is Tesla ends up being the dominant battery manufacturer (or some other business) with a car business attached (or even spun off)

Totally fine.

More data for the blind-as-a-bat Tesla idiots who claims Tesla is ahead on autopilot:

Firmware update: Tesla AP2 download and...holy crap!

It's obvious crapware, and Tesla are taking a terribly high risk approach here, both from a PR perspective and a long term insurance/liability perspective. This after claiming they'd be ahead of gen1 by December last year.

Meanwhile, GM has this:



You're morons getting conned by a stock pumper as PR-savvy as Trump, and more dishonest. But yo man he make rockets! Rockets cool! Therefore he can make cars at profit!

You're ****ing idiots.

You seem very bitter. Stock not behaving as you anticipated? The GM videos are useless. Half a year later and the equipment on the roof... Tesla keeps on winning given the fact they are calibrating their system to be light years ahead of competition. There is a reason they don't roll everything out immediately and take precautions.

Holy crap if you read that thread on TMC

cliffs?

TS is mad that he got burned shorting TSLA from 40 to 200 years ago and now takes it out on all the "dumb" bulls that are patiently waiting for TSLA to rocket ship to the moon.

I thought TS doesn't actually trade. He keeps posting paper trades which are probably massive losers if attempted.

Do you have any evidence that he shorted the stock from 40 to 200? In this thread he has posted long and short positions on it and has been right almost every time, according to my memory.

Again, he's posted long and short trades in this thread multiple times, and has been right almost every time, according to my memory. Can you link to posts that show his paper trades that would have been massive losers?

I'm on the first page of the thread when TSLA was at $100 strongly saying you shouldn't short TSLA. I'm not 100% on TSLA but I've picked it very very well.

So perhaps this applies to some bears, but not me. I think I've played Tesla long more than short. TLSA is a brilliant trading vehicle due to the vast number of predictable idiots in the stock (both longs who are keeping it high and shorts who get squeezed, cover, reshort, cover).

I'm a bear because Musk is a charlatan (nerd-Trump), the global car industry is cutthroat and highly capable industry backed by trillions in ready capital, profitable car production without a 10+ year established volume supply chain is one the hardest things you can do if not the hardest (the rocket stuff that SpaceX does is child's play in comparison), and Musk has been far too slow at delivering (battery costs and production volume and capital expenditure are reaching a point where mass produced battery cars will soon be viable, at which point Musk it toast in the low end which he needs to justify far above the $50 billion valuation it has now and hence return for the idiots buying in).

As for the autopilot, if you don't think that thread linked above vindicates everything I've said about Tesla, the state of their autopilot program, their incompetence, and the huge needless risks they're taking which only luck has prevented blowing up in their faces, well, I don't think you're plugged into reality.

somo,

Again, posting trades in an internet forum is not the same as actually making the trades. The cost to short Tesla is immense.

You're a clown, Mihkel. You don't even trade, as opposed to the dozens of real time posted, large ($10K+) verifiable options trades I've done on this forum.

Further evidence that you're a clown who doesn't trade: cost to borrow Tesla is usually 1-2%. You'd know this if you ever had a trading window open and checked TSLA borrow rates sometimes out of curiosity.

Not sure if this has been posted yet, dash cam of tesla allegedly using AP

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors...topilot_crash/


Feels like TS is way right on this stuff

Mikhel is a well known forum troll.

He's not a troll. He's a decently smart dude (probably around average intelligence on these forums) with a massive ego who presents his conjectures as fact. When he's wrong he always gets called out but he sticks to his guns like the lovechild of Trump and Kim Jong Il until indisputable facts are presented to prove him wrong. He's just a child. Calling him a troll gives him way too much credit.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

The thread has been started shortly after it got rolled out. People have been posting their experience. Consensus is that you shouldn't trust it but see the advancements it makes when you drive a road multiple times.

The program was rolled out 3 months ago, it is supposed to have flaws. No one forces you to use it. By now, it is well established that you cannot watch DVDs while riding in the front seat. You need to take precautions.

You do see the progress it makes though. So all is good.

This is an obvious construction site. If you think that the car should be able to handle it, you are going to experience a few crashes.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/...ough-the-nose/

https://electrek.co/2016/06/29/tesla...isition-offer/

Thanks for chiming in guys.

Haha - cuck who doesn't trade doesn't realize that borrow rates change. These rates were during the SCTY acquisition period when it was heavily shorted by big money, down to $180, in order to take advantage of the value loss during that period. No one here was was shorting when borrow rates were 30%.

And in fact, much of the run up of Tesla since the SCTY acquisition can be attributed to large scale short covering following the trade, plus the general market rip pulling up high beta.

When I recommended shorting above at $283, borrow rates were 1%. Which makes this comment more of your total stupidity:
You're an abusive idiot who's usually wrong, with the double whammy of having no idea what he's talking about. Just STFU already.

Again, people here are trying to claim that Tesla is ahead of everyone on autonomous driving. Yet its automatic braking - an incredibly simple task - can't even navigate situations solved over a decade ago.

Surely you can see how the thread above plus this and many, many other things makes your claims farcical? Let's stack the claims side by side:

1. Tesla is ahead of everyone on autonomous driving
2. Tesla crashes into walls, failing at even the most basic autonomous driving task which has solved over a decade ago (not crashing into stuff).
3. Tesla crashes into giant trucks which it didn't even see, decapitating the driver and not even braking, continuing for another few hundred yards before crashing into something (again, not braking).
4. The newest Tesla autopilot - "Fully Self Driving" within a year according to Musk - randomly swerves into traffic and across lanes, and can't tell an exit lane from a normal lane, such that even huge Tesla fans are shocked/dismayed.
5. Tesla is ahead of everyone on autonomous driving.

You guys are becoming a farce this stage. Tesla are far behind everyone on autonomous driving. Musk is dangerously irresponsible (you test autonomous driving software that's less than half baked/swerving into things/can't take lanes in a TEST AREA or with a professional test driver, not on public roads driven by members of the public), and it's pure luck he hasn't created a PR disaster yet. These two things are facts.

Tesla is ahead of everyone else. The forum thread covers AP2 which is in its early stages. You can say that Tesla is dumb for allowing a 1000 people to participate in the beta but it's a mood point. No one is forced to take part and most people happily oblige.

Point 3 is a joke by now. You need to stop mentioning it, it's embarrassing after everything that independent government bodies discovered was the mere fact that the word Autopilot might be misleading. The car itself was safer than before.

After a year of AP2, we will see that Tesla is miles ahead of competition. The pure fact that no one else has a system integrated in their produced cars is a very good indicator. That's btw a fact. A fact is not: "Something is pure luck." When you cannot possibly measure the probabilities.

It doesn't really matter if Tesla is the leader of autonomous driving or not. The only autonomous driving feature that really matters in terms of game changing boom to the bottom line is actual autonomous driving that removes the need for a driver. We are still a long way from anyone achieving that.

Whoa, ok what should it be able to handle? Kind of feel like barricades is a reasonably low bar no?

It should stop, I absolutely agree with that. I wouldn't expect it to know the difference between two contradicting line markings - that was my point. Construction sites are confusing because the previous norm for the road is now no longer correct.

Autonomous driving priorities:

Step 1: DON'T CRASH INTO THINGS
Step 2: Stay within the lanes
Step 3: Have enough situational awareness to change lanes and follow clear markings
Step 4: Navigate major highways including correct lanes and exits
Step 5: Navigate more complex situations yet normal traffic such as stop signs, traffic lights.
.....
Step 30: Full autonomous driving.

The losers at TSLA haven't even managed to tackle even a fraction of the bugs in step 1, which is a trivial and long solved autonomous driving problem. What's more, they are such reckless cowboys they release software for public consumption and onto public streets with unprofessional drivers, software that is comically unable to do step 1, while marketing it as "autonomous driving" and calling it "autopilot".

Yet according to you they are ahead at autonomous driving research. And the "vast amount" of data they were supposedly capturing in AP1 hasn't enabled them - even that which has been put out months late from their own timeline - to make AP2 work without swerving everywhere during simple highway driving.

Please, defend them some more and claim they're ahead of the big car makers such as GM:



Everything you guys post just me more and more credibility and makes you look more and more ridiculous.