https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/...deliverer.aspx

Lmao, I’m sure its sustainable. “@tsrandall: By market value, at least, Tesla is now one of America’s Big Three automakers https://t.co/0xTvYGUEZY

http://www.theverge.com/2017/2/21/14...cey-california

Yep. And GM released a self driving demo recently. Unlike Musk's fraud, it doesn't' disengage and require intervention every three miles, as we know from filings.

On top of that, GM announced they're doing a full city service in conjunction with Lyft next year. Thousands of vehicles.

The people who think that Tesla will get here first, with its tiny capital in a field full of highly capable commercial competitors with a trillion in capital, starting many years behind, are nutcases, frankly. They've been fooled by the tech world's equivalent of Trump.

GM to field thousands of self driving Bolts in 2018

Even if Tesla won the autonomous car battle - which they wont, but generously assuming they do - they don't have the production capability to exploit it in time before all the other car makers have self driving too. It's a farce designed to fool idiots into seeing Tesla as the future/autonomous car leader (they're trailing by a huge amount), and buy more of their overpriced stock.

The Uber thing is another PR stunt.

Funny, because GM is running years behind on its basic TACC system "Super Cruise". Apparently can't get basic traffic aware cruise control right, but is going to skip to self driving next year. TS you're doing that thing were you interpret clickbate headlines to conform to preconceived notions. GM is partnering with lyft next year to get the kind of data from drivers Tesla is getting now from users.

Really want to sell longer dated/OTM call spreads (I have a couple orders out but I doubt they fill due to b/a spreads being pretty wide). Big player bought 3k $360/$430 Jan 18 call spreads earlier in the session today, sentiment is so absurd right now given SCTY is now on the balance sheet. The truth is technically this could be a massive multi year breakout even if the fundamentals are as nonsensical as any name on the street.

You're confusing different systems. And they're delaying it because there's a serious company, not a flyspeck run by a nut, and they can't release half-baked software that gets people decapitated like Musk gleefully does. Not when you make 6,000,000 cars/year for the average consumer (as opposed to 70K - 1% of that number - for forgiving enthusiasts).

They've been working on this for years, dude. Only PR-seeking flyspecks like Tesla try to desperately PR their full autonomy as "just around the corner - buy now for a discount!" like the fraud Musk does.

Well, that's your read on it.

So GM can't even release hands free highway functionality for a few months but next year they will be managing thousands of self-driving cars in an urban environment?

Who are the nutcases again?

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Yes. What's hard to understand about that?

Putting unreliably autonomous technology into a consumer car that operates on cutthroat margins is a losing proposition. Not only that, it exposes you to substantial legal risk.

Putting your well-advanced research into a large autonomous test fleet makes a lot of sense.

The two aren't contradictory or mutually exclusive in any way, dude. That you think they are is just laughably stupid. It's this first level thinking among his fans that nerd-Trump exploits in his PR efforts.
You are. You don't have the first clue how the car business operates.

You going to try and argue that this guy is sane?

How are they not related? Solving hands free highway driving seems orders of magnitude easier than urban driving.

GM's hands free highway software is not where they apparently want it to be, how is it possible that much more complex software is going to be rolled out very shortly after?

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Because it uses completely different hardware and processing units. GM's current hands-free stuff was produced in 2012 on a particular sensor and processor set for the purpose it was intended - hands free highway driving as cheap as possible with what they had. And the progressively tweaked.

The fully automated cars which are coming use a completely different sensor set, algorithms, research, processing unit. It's not even related. A $500M side research budget is a rounding error for these guys.

Tesla are doing the same thing, if you think about it. They had the first autopilot, it decapitated someone, so Musk stopped putting in new cars under the guise of adding a new sensor set, promised to be turned on above AP1 by the end of the December. It's now the end of February and the new cars still can't do what the first autopilot did - they're inferior. Different sensor sets and processing units are trained differently, have different algorithms, etc. GM's upcoming full autonomy, which will get there long before Tesla, is totally separate from its highway cruise control, which has nothing to do with autonomous driving and is a specialized add-on trained for that particular purpose.

But you agree that the situation are vastly different from a complexity stand point and are still OK with thinking they will reach the end point at relatively similar times?

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http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er_2016-4Q.pdf

That is rather high...

If TSLA produces 5000 Model 3's a week at any point in 2017 I will be seriously impressed.

Tesla going to the moon over next 36 months!

Interesting NYT article out this morning on SCTY, which is tanking the stock after the earnings bump:
I think the lawyer made a mistake, and this is a nothing/fake news (which NYT is) beatup. CFO is leaving as well, most probably unrelated.

But the opening line (already well known) brings up something very interesting, and that's that SCTY is doomed:

Given the ways panels are improving, and the fact that they're already on roofs, at the next recession, tons of people will simply stop paying, and SCTY will collapse under its debt, since the panels are worthless/not worth removing, and you can't get blood out of a stone if many of their customers are short on cash.

This is a ticking time bomb imo. It's going to weigh on Tesla for years.

Looks like this is happening. Musk's comments on the conference call:

Should see continued profit taking with the likely capital raise hanging over things for a little bit. Musk is a talented stock manipulator and he'd be crazy not to clear the air now and grab more cash from his shareholders while the market and Tesla is at highs.

I think in terms of regulation he can announce/do a raise in a week or two, some filings have to happen first I believe.

That transcript is wrong, I listened to the call. He said "according to our financial plan, no capital needs to be raised".

I still expect they will. But lol @ an error like that in the transcript.


http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/5tbao926

~35 minutes in.

Yeah I think it's obvious from the context/previous comments what he's saying. Bad transcript error though. I didn't even notice that and read it as "no" given the context.

It's obvious he's going to capital raise before Model 3 and now makes the most sense by far (capital raise hanging over the stock is terrible for upside; the stock and market are at highs right now). He lacks the balls/has the PR nous to not openly admit it.

Wow shocked to see the GS downgrade today. Guess they're working with someone else to raise capital.

I find it sad that people like him have so much influence over the world.

A mouse sneezing could have pricked this obviously insane, short-covering fueled bubble. When me and Spurious are in agreement, you sell.

Oh and it's not like you weren't warned either:
You were given a specific time weeks in advance. You could be 15% richer = you could own 15% more Tesla!!

One of my great pleasures on these forums is to tell people the stone cold truth, but tell it in a way that's slightly offensive to their sensibilities, so that they refuse to accept it.

heltok, your 2019 TSLA projections are utterly fanciful and will never come to pass.

The projections were not mine. We will see if they come to pass or not, never is a very long time.

Fwiw, the numbers were a response to TS's claim that even at 5M cars per year Tesla was overvalued:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1404

The numbers for 2019 were:
So the numbers were to show that IF Tesla manages ~620k cars with 20-30% margins share prices would actually not be "obscenely overvalued".

I find the numbers reasonable, Tesla seems to think so also. Sure they can miss by a little, by a lot of even fail totally. The question is what is the likelihood of them actually doing this? >30%? If so share price is well motivated. If less, maybe it's a short, you have to split into different scenarios and weight them...

Now back to railing ETH/USD