it's really amazing how some days he just makes a bunch of stuff up and the stock pumps 10%+.

some people never learn.

my theory is that people buy because they think others will believe it. meanwhile no one believes it and everyone's buying

its the sort of dynamic which holds until it doesn't

Esp timely since shareholders are about to vote again on whether to re-approve his $56B pay package.

Oversold squeeze.

Robotaxis level autonomy is years off, and TSLA is not leading. They could license it from someone else eventually but that's not what Elon is promoting.

Smaller model is viable but it's not gonna help them with their tech company valuation.

The problem with EVs is it's too awkward if you want to take a trip with your family, or you work as a delivery driver or a taxi driver and then you have to find a charging point, which when you arrive might already be occupied.

Plug in Hybrids are the future.

Tesla is likely going bankrupt.

Long Toyota, Ford and GM short Tesla.

Would be pretty wild if Tesla went bankrupt at this point but they will probably lose a healthy chunk of their multiple

Bad enough we have idiots on cell phones, now we have idiots on cell phones who think they can do that while on autopilot...

Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving linked to hundreds of crashes, dozens of deaths

In 2022 I was struck by a motorcycle while in a crosswalk. The person on the motorcycle couldn't see me because the sun was in his eyes.

In 2024, Do not go through a greenlight unless you wait an second and do not go through a crosswalk unless all vehicles have come to a complete stop.

Tesla jumps over 15% after passing key hurdle to roll out advanced driver-assistance tech in China

TSLA currently stonking to the tune of 15%

Elon tryna get that Chinese RTA with his FSD bugs.

If TSLA gets assistance from Chinese companies, will that ban their ability to sell in the U.S.?

Musk knows TSLA is failing to become a tech company and it's a mediocre car company.

The latest pump is his attempt to get 56 billion.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...billion-payout


Self driving development is stuck globally, including in China, where many new cities have the best conditions for it. The Chinese will have a look at what Tesla has, there will be some unfortunate deadly accidents and no self driving progress.

Tesla Interns Say Offers Are Getting Revoked Weeks Before Their Start Date

Also fired their entire supercharger network team

I guess since they don't gain from building that out as an emphasis since their competitors use the same chargers? Why did they open it up to comp in the first place?

Also guess, given China news, they're just going all in on robotaxis

Some prognosticating for potential future cracks: Obviously the biggest risks are that they don't win the autonomous-driving race (which I highly doubt they will, and which I don't think they even have a lead in, despite bulls' insistence), and that demand fizzles out (largely due to the fact that, finally, there are plenty of other comparable EV options from major automakers). I don't know how much Elon's political takes have alienated his core userbase, but it seems like it's at least a concern, further eroding demand.

But the reason I'm posting is that I think there's a good chance the overproduction of cars in China ends up deeply hurting damn near every automaker, but especially Tesla. I think Tesla's sales in China are going to decline in the face of all the EV automakers that have been subsidized by the Chinese government and that have overproduced units, so TSLA's growth case in China goes into the trash. There's also a good chance that these Chinese EVs—and Chinese ICE vehicles, of which there are actually many more units than EVs—find their way to other countries and undercut Tesla. I'm mainly speaking of Europe, as some countries are going to be less strict on their protections against Chinese-made products. If you live in a country where right across the border you can get a car just as good as what's available in your home country, but for 60% of the cost, you're going to try to find a way around your country's trade barriers. The US has doubled down on its trade war with China, with Biden recently announcing 100% tariffs on some Chinese goods, and Trump surely isn't going to seek a free-trade policy with China if he's elected. So Tesla looks to be fairly well protected from the Chinese leviathan here in the US, but I wonder if even that fades away in the longer term. You can imagine China relocating some of its capacity, or even rebranded finished cars, to Korea or Vietnam, with whom there are much lighter trade restrictions, and these cheap cars eventually find their way to the US. Whatever happens, having this much extra supply in the world—both EVs and ICE—is a big negative pressure for automakers. I'm not sure how strongly the effects will propagate through global markets, and how well the most important markets of the US and Europe can shield themselves from those pricing effects, but I'd be very worried holding automaker stocks here, especially TSLA.

As for why now, since I could have said essentially the same thing a couple years ago, China is now pretty saturated with cars, sales are stagnant, yet production capacity has grown. China's capacity for ICE + EVs is probably a bit north of 40m units a year, and domestic demand is maybe half that going forward. That's a lot of spare capacity for a country that is now in something of an economic downturn, with a centrally planned economy that's looking to keep people employed and producing stuff. I could imagine this capacity finds its way to merge with the flailing VinFast (Vietnam) and "launder" the cars to consumers in China-hostile countries.