You're really on the Elon Stan Koolaid mix. FSD is nearly impossible. We've all known this. They're unsure if it will ever be possible generally because of natural obstacles like kangaroos.

At night time (especially in a snow/sand storm)...the car will have a much better chance of avoiding kangaroos, deer or moose than any human driver.

You make it sound like choosing not to invest in Tesla = not understanding the stock. You also act like this thread is a monolith of "bears" and posters "interested in winning the debate"

In case you haven't noticed, you're the one who's straining, continually trying to portray other posters as though they're all holding shorts or something...Never mind you're literally the only one who keeps bringing up "cracks" which is something exactly one poster said over a decade ago

This thread has been informative and certainly isn't a cesspool imo. Somewhat entertaining even. You might even say I've UpDaTeD mY mEnTaL mOdEl Of ThE wOrLd thanks to it!

Is this true? It'd be a pretty gruesome and dangerous experiment to give one the best chance to answer correctly.

If it is true, does the car hit brakes or use an evasive maneuver? Does it use the evasive maneuver and put the occupants of vehicle at risk? I hope not.

If it the AI is driving and hits poor Roo, who is at fault for insurance purposes? The humanoid? The proprietor of the autonomous driving program?

Is Elon going to insure all of his robo cars? How do we make sure the liability of whatever entity is operating a motor vehicle is held up with integrity? We don't want a dispute of liability, between the humanoid behind the wheel and the AI, when a casualty is involved.

But then again, why are you driving in a snow/sand storm? And why are you contemplating whether or not you should allow some roadway droid to ferry you around safely in such inclement weather?

I'm just not quite that ready to rely on motor vehicle autonomy yet. The approach is all wrong. Individual corporations are trying to come up with their own solutions. I think the collective would have more success if it started within the infrastructure. The AI driving program needs to be integrated to the road surfaces. Sensors in the roads would help vehicles to communicate their movements, and INTENDED movements, with other vehicles. It's only gonna work if it's standardized and every vehicle is on the same "grid".

I posted this same thought some time ago, but couldn't agree more. I guess the long game is proving that your solution works the best and getting the government contract to build out the infrastructure.

I have always thought FSD race was arguably backward. You don't make cars/AI to drive around the current infrastructure. You completely re-map infrastructure with cars/AI/automation in mind

As obnoxious as Musk can be, and as dumb as The Boring Company may seem, I actually think that's the right idea. Tunnels, high speed rail, the national highway system, all need to be brought into the fold imo to accommodate modernity...

Where I live roads are getting re-done and I'm like lol this is not nearly enough. Band aids bc our infrastructure is all f'd up, has been a joke, treated like a joke, and there's zero will to take on the daunting task of the massive overhaul I have in mind. I guess maybe there's not enough space in many places (I'm in Philadelphia)

I thought one opportunity to attack something like that, or even just a general engagement on infrastructure, was during COVID. We really missed a chance to get something done while literally everyone was at home (out of the way) with zero traffic and a lot of jobs to be had

No high speed rail in the "Greatest Country in the World. It's awful.

The private rail companies can share some blame. Sections of rail are owned (it's private property!) by many different people. The standards of upkeep are low, and I don't believe the companies could be forced to upgrade their rail to match standards or meet needs.
That doesn't work for high speed rail. Definitely not safe.

They should just use imminent domain, buyout sections, and get some high speed mainlines goin.

During the lockdowns would have been a good time to update infrastructure, yes.

Missed some serious labor striking during the Covid-19 lockdown, too. The proletariat missed its opportunity.

High Speed Rail infrastructure requires a couple hundred feet of clearance and I'm sure the federal government would be just as effective as California overseeing the project.

If we are to make a massive investment in a new transportation system, then the return should be equally massive. Compared to the alternatives, it should ideally be: Safer, Faster, Lower cost, More convenient, Immune to weather, Sustainably self-powering, Resistant to Earthquakes, Not disruptive to those along the route.

Is there truly a new mode of transport – a fifth mode after planes, trains, cars and boats – that meets those criteria and is practical to implement?

We'll get there someday!

Growth company.

I think you just need to update your mental model

^LOL

Looks like OpenAI is trying to raise more capital. The press release in the news is vague from Bloomberg. This is going around Twitter today. Not even sure it's new news. But the valuation pegs it at $90 billion. My trusty Perplexity.ai app gave me this news

"OpenAI, an artificial intelligence company backed by Microsoft, is in talks to sell existing employees' shares at a valuation of up to $90 billion. The deal is expected to allow employees to sell their existing shares as opposed to the company issuing new ones to raise additional capital. OpenAI is generating sales of $1.3 billion a year, mostly from conversational chatbot subscriptions. The share sale is expected to close next Thursday. The terms of the deal could change, and there could be issues with fundraising given the current Israel-Hamas war. If OpenAI employees can indeed sell their shares at the expected price level, it would make the AI company one of the most highly valued start-ups"

selling shares does not raise capital for the company - the money will go to private individuals and into their pockets

raising money creates new shares and the money that brought it goes to the company


this is actually an incredibly forward thinking move by the founders to allow their employees the opportunity to get serious cash now without waiting for an IPO - which could be a long way out

they almost never do this because those employee shares act as golden handcuffs, they don't just stay to acquire more shares, but also stay in order to maintain their shares


take a look at some of the highest valued startups - if you were an early employee of uber and joined in the first year of 2009 - you wouldn't have been able to cash in on that until the ipo 11 years later - and more importantly, the way those employee shares work is they aren't gifts but rather options to buy at the same price as investors but at a later date

so you join at the A round where investors paid $10 per share and you were granted a 10k shares to be granted over 5 years. It's no 2014, the company is valued at $40 a share and your shares are worth 400k on paper. You won't earn anymore shares by remaining, the company won't IPO for another 6 years. But if you leave the company now, you will need to purchase your shares, shares which would not need to be purchased if you remained an employee. If you don't exercise your options and purchase your shares within a month of leaving the company, you'll forfeit them. So you have 400k in theoretical value, but you'll still need to pay the strike price of $10 per share so you'll need to raise 100k to buy them with an unknown timeline and they'll never be worth anything unless the company is sold or IPOs - neither of which are guaranteed. And if it's sold, it's also quite possible you get nothing if it's not sold for high enough. Let's say the company fails and Tesla bought UBER for 10 billion (instead of the 80 billion it IPO'd at) - well then the employees and founders probably get nothing because investors often put in clauses that they get paid first and a minimal amount. If the investors say "they get a minimum of 9 billion and get paid first" then 9 of the 10 billion paid for it is carved out and given to those investors and then the remaining billion is divvied out to the other shareholders - even if they collectively hold 85% of the company. So those 10k shares you paid $10 each for only paid back $1 for a $90k loss, which you could have avoided had you simply just remained at the company and then saw you'd have lost money and then chose not to buy them and convert and lose money.

hence golden handcuffs, you stay at that company and you get to not only avoid finding a large pool of capital to exercise your options but also get freeroll the outcome and wait until you know the exact profit/loss to exercise

a few years back i left a company - had stock which at the time was worth about 250k. i needed 50k to exercise - they were so far away from any sort of ipo or sale (they still haven't) that I decided not to exercise but rather let them expire - still unsure if i made the right decision or not - for a very long time I thought I made the right decision because the company isn't nearly as big as it was originally projected and i thought it was failing - but then again i saw it sponsored an esports team i was watching so now I'm thinking perhaps they are doing very well afterall and I ffed up

Annnnd meaningful production of cybertruck confirmed pushed back another year. Hard to see that coming when they pushed it back a year in 2021, and again in 2022, but here we are.

Were these Teslas earnings or Gerneral Motors earnings.

Teslas costs are going up and Elon is lowering the price of the vehicles.

A bad combination.

At least there's new products coming. And robots.

And level 4-5 driving automation. It's just another decade around the corner.

When was the comment made that you can rent your car out as a robotaxi and get paid from it? When Musk said it people atleast did think robocars weren't too far around the corner. And Musk hadn't become quite as much of a polarizing public figure yet so it didn't seem as carnival barkerish. I think it was in 2019.

That's gotta be his comment/prediction/forward guidance that has aged the worst, that sounds insane now

Well Robotaxis are already operating. In San Francisco Cruise/GM has 300 and Waymo has 250. They both have more a million autonomous miles under their belt, more than most individuals drive in a lifetime. So you think it's the worst aging forward guidance because robotaxis haven't taken over the roads in 4 years? When Waymo and Cruise are ready to take this global, do you think Jaguar(85,000 capacity) or Tesla(2 million production capacity) will be the hardware for Waymo?

even if they did sell cars to waymo, which i think is highly unlikely given the history of both firms mocking each other's tech and teslas struggles with build quality, just building cars for waymo wouldn't justify a tech company valuation for tesla.
the only thing that could even remotely justify a $700b valuation is if tesla is first to solve fsd and able to make monopoly returns on that tech for a few years.

plus, if they concede that they can't compete with waymo and cruise, they should stop all their useless capex into their own fsd tech right now and preserve the cash.

Musk said Teslas purchased back then would be money making machines for everyone that had one. They just needed a few software tweaks.

I don't think we'll be seeing tesla owners use their vehicles as robocar profit machines while they're home watching football anytime soon....or ever. When the tech gets that good, the profit will go to the companies, not someone buying a car.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/22/tech/...xis/index.html

lol

I was wrong about X.AI It's out and only took a couple months to train it. It's Elons. It's another LLM like OpenAI's. API too.

https://x.ai

"On these benchmarks, Grok-1 displayed strong results, surpassing all other models in its compute class, including ChatGPT-3.5 and Inflection-1. It is only surpassed by models that were trained with a significantly larger amount of training data and compute resources like GPT-4. This showcases the rapid progress we are making at xAI in training LLMs with exceptional efficiency."

If true might be promising. There's a ton of these out there now though. Mistral.ai is the other unaligned one

Elon's whole scam is anouncing cool things but they are 5 years away. This buys him time and maybe to scam some investors.

Hyperloop
Tesla Roadsters
CyberTruck
Grok
SpaceX
Tesla Robot

Time is running out on the cybertruck scam. Next year he will actually have to deliver a product. With the AI craze it has given another scam opportunity. Grok is in beta. Sure it is.