It's all future talk, nothing has been done on the charging network. You basically pretend like Musk is full of **** because he promises stuff that holds true to 85% certainty while believing that the car manufacturers will crush Musk.

You have been terribly wrong on Apple, your call was hilariously bad.
Your call on Autopilot was hilariously bad.
Your call on batteries is so obviously wrong, even your own ****ing source disagrees with your assessment.
Your call on the majors is wrong, evidence is your call that Tesla is crushed because Porsche announced a competitive car in September 2015. You might want to follow up here, where is the Tesla competitor?

You won't change but your calls on the business side of things are always incorrect. You will most likely be correct at some point in the future but overall your track record is terrible. You have been spot on with your trades but that's not really meaningful in the overall development of the company.

It's a certainty that they'll crush Musk.

Which call? Apple has barely moved in a few years and has underperformed QQQ. If you mean yesterday's, that's not over yet.
Are you confusing me with Musk? He said autopilot would be back on at the end of December after shutting it down in new cars in a panic after the decapitation. It's now the end of January and new cars lack even initial autopilot features. It's still disabled.
I have no idea what you're talking about
I used Porsche as an example of how cars can be built differently and better than Tesla - the battery in particular.

Tesla could have cornered this market if they were faster. If Musk's promises about his gigafactory and its timeline had been more than hot air. If he hadn't made disastrous decision on the Model X. Etc.

The majors are coming out with cars right now, and they're selling like hotcakes. The Bolt (238 miles pure EV) is only in a few states so far, and together with the Volt (battery-heavy hybrid) is selling 2800/month already.

This is just the beginning. Once cars start coming out with 300 mile range at sub 30K prices and good performance, it's going to make a mess of the Model 3, which will be significantly behind schedule, and will have all kinds of manufacturing problems, because Tesla don't know what they're doing, and you don't have the margin at $35 or $40K to do the kind of frequent expensive repair work that Tesla do on their flawed Model S and X. Nor do you have the tolerant multi-car-owning rich first adopter customers for whom these are toys.

My entire thesis is long term. The fluctuating details don't matter. For example, Apple leaving the car game is good news for Tesla. Them entering was bad news. But it doesn't change the underlying reality that Tesla can't compete with the majors at the price levels needed for large profit and revenue (to justify a much higher market cap - which is currently equal to Ford who make 50x the cars). Or that their autonomous driving effort is worthless.

Apple entering the market never made a difference to Tesla. It's actually a very good example of how a company with deep pockets can not just come in and do whatever they want. Money is only one thing, attracting talent the other and Detroit isn't the place to be from what I've heard.

On batteries:
Your source says: "Li-ion sales have already exceeded US$ 24 billion so far this year"
At 76'000 cars with an average battery of 85 KWh and $200/KWh, Tesla has roughly 5% of that market. Given that the vast majority of that market is smartphones, it's idiotic to claim Tesla is a nobody when in reality they are most likely the biggest player.

You say that as if batteries for electric cars are no different than the tech you'd find in smart phones.

Tesla may very well be a nothing that ends up getting eaten up by some major manufacturer for whatever the value of the brand is (which is definitely not nothing).

The point is when new markets are created companies are going to start researching ways to get it to work better for that new purpose.

The argument is that the timeline was pushed up significantly because of the investments and losses that were taken. That the R&D builds on itself. ie: it's because there are large numbers of plug ins being sold, LG chem had an immediate reason to optimize their batteries. And from that lot of other players will be able to use that as a base on which to improve further. Each actor is incapable of fully capitalizing on their own research, but it creates a feedback loop of people piggybacking off of each other.

His response was only like a scared child if their tech doesn't deliver.

Looking at the current charge times compared to the competition it seems that they've done a pretty solid job of staying ahead of the curve.

"So who is wrong?" --NxtWorldChamp

Toothsayer, why do you keep ignoring this chart/question?

It's been well documented pages ago. I ignore repeat questions.

Can you link to your response then or give a post number? I read on from where that infographic was posted and you never responded to it.

Tooth is just making stuff up, he is driving the conversation forward though. He posts nonsense then it gets refuted by everyone else which helps me feel even more positive Tesla is undervalued

I'm still hesitant to add at these levels though just because I remember it being at 190 three months ago

On top of the product battery cost chart that shows Tesla's lead.

Jeff Dahn, renowned battery researcher and the leader of Tesla’s research partnership through his battery-research group at Dalhousie University, won the prestigious Gerhard Herzberg Canada Gold Medal for Science and Engineering this week and made some interesting comments about his partnership with Tesla.

Last year, Dahn transitioned the group from their 20-year research agreement with 3M to a new association with Tesla under the newly formed ‘NSERC/Tesla Canada Industrial Research’.

Through the agreement, Tesla invested in a new research lab close to Dahn’s group near Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Dahn is considered a pioneer in li-ion battery cells since he has been working on the batteries pretty much since they were invented. He is credited of having help increase the life cycle of the cells, which helped their commercialization. His work now focuses mainly on a potential increase in energy density and durability.

They have only been working with Tesla for 6 months and his work hasn’t influenced the automaker’s products yet, but he says that’s about to change (via CBC):

“At this moment, we’ve been working with Tesla only for six months so far, and none of our research has made it into their products yet, but I’m quite confident that our work will be incorporated in their products going forward, and that’s pretty exciting for us.”

NO ADVANTAGE!!

Model 3 production to "start" 20feb:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-te...urce=applenews

Has anyone been following Faraday Future's problems?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/priya/turmo...faraday-future
- yes, I know, lol buzzfeed, but its actually a good article.

It goes into detail about the problems with LeEco and its funding, the barely-functional prototype, the factory to be built one day in North Las Vegas, and the difficulties with payments to suppliers.

FF tried to recruit me. Though I really like the weather in LA, the company didn't seem very solid to me compared to Atieva(LM) and the other startups so I did not follow through with the process.

https://electrek.co/2017/02/08/tesla...tion-shutdown/
TSLA is up pre market:
https://electrek.co/2017/02/08/tsla-...against-tesla/

Uh, no...that's not what the statement says. It says they're beginning "test-building" - whatever that means - next week.

This is classic "drip-feed the idiots to keep them excited" from Musk. This tells us absolutely nothing whatsoever, but it can be sold as a narrative that Model 3 production is beginning. Doesn't matter if it doesn't reach volume for 1 or 3 or 100 years. The anticipation is sufficient.

Musk is definitely Trump-level intelligence/charlatan. Hats off to him, that is the one area where is he is a genius (he's middling to poor on most other thinking skills, although he's a talented businessman).

Anyway, it's great to see it ripping...going to be some wild tradeable swings whenever the next inevitable bad news happens.

Imo it tells us that they are confident that production mid 2017 is still on the table.

Pre market:
273,90 +11,82 (4,51 %)

Explain how this tells us that, exactly?
By the way, earnings is on February 22nd. Coincidence? I think not.

Enjoy the run and take your profit before the 22nd. Set a stop at say $265.

They decided to halt production for 10days to install tools to begin production of a test-series, likely both to manufacture a few beta vehicles for testing and demonstration and also to test the production. If they thought that production would start late 2017 they likely would have delayed the halt.

Thanks! I will keep my TSLA a while longer. I still think that these figures are plausible:
In the longer term I see even higher numbers with model Y, Semi, >2M/y M3, bikes etc. I might be terribly wrong, but I think the likelihood is large enough to justify a higher price than todays price...

You see them doing 8 billion gross profit on 600K cars in 2019?

$10 billion in solar roof revenue in 2019?

I'm laughing dude. I enjoy your contributions, but that's bat**** insane.

I'd also note that even if these impossible values are right, you're getting a mere 2.5x in 3 years. In your absolute best case scenario in which they become the biggest, most profitable car company in the world a mere 2 years from now while making 600K cars...

We will see... But yes, that is pretty much what I am betting on. Best case is not those number, best case is more like a trillion dollar company.

Current factories in Fremont and Reno can likely support ~500-600k cars/year, but Elon has said that the plan is to expand with bigger and more efficient factories, candidates are China and Europe. That could hopefully push production numbers from 500k to 2M cars/year. We will see if that ever happens, but it is pretty clear that it's the goal of Elon Musk and Tesla and they are making investments and preparations for that.

No, we won't see. Your numbers are pure fiction and Tesla will go nowhere near them in 2019. The end.
I'm not talking about whether they can make 500K or 2M cars (they can), I'm talking about your 2019 profit and revenue numbers. They're deranged.

Anyway, this is pure fantasy...two days before earnings, no less (underline mine):
They're not retooling or beginning production on the Model 3. They improving the paint shop and doing routine maintenance. This is all fake PR.

Weird behavior (along with deep discounting) for a company claimed to be "production constrained", no?

Just to expand on why this is nuts:

Ford make $5 billion/year in profit on 6 million cars at an average 13% margin with a market cap the same as Tesla's. It takes $150 billion in capital to produce this profit

BMW make $8billion/year in profit on $100billion/year in capital doing 2.2 billion high end cars, for a market cap about the same as Tesla's.

You think Tesla, a startup who's made bad mistakes and is burning money like crazy, is going to make as much profit in 2-3 years as either of these, with a fraction of the cars and 1/5 or less of the deployed capital, and be valued more than both together? While growing their business aggressively?

You've all lost touch with reality.

It was discussed months ago. LG Chem leaked that they're selling batteries far below believed cost. Tesla is actually behind LG Chem.

They have ~30% margins on the S already while growing their business 50% per year. They show negative earnings because they invest for larger numbers in the future. This is reality no matter how many ad hominem you can fit into your posts.

As for their future profits, it should be noted that Tesla sells a lot of software upgrades. Margins are much higher with software than with hardware. This will greatly increase the value for pre owned vehicles.
https://electrek.co/2016/10/26/tesla...ing-a-vehicle/

30% margins on an $80K car with $25K worth of components in it isn't hard, man. They're a rich boy's toy and the handful of enthusiasts are forgiving of the many manufacturing faults and not likely to sue. 20% margins on an $40K car with $20K worth of components is a very different thing. And it's a different clientele too - a far more expensive one.

Musk has never done anything profitably in his life. He sucks the government teat or buys into existing businesses (like PayPal). He has no manufacturing experience and so far has made a dog's breakfast of Tesla (years behind schedule, tons of money burnt up despite a favorable environment and promise of profitability (sans capex) years ago, amateur engineering mistakes). It only exists because of PR - a bit like Trump's early businesses/success.

It's extremely naive imo to think he can compete profitably in the cutthroat global car business. Let alone making the 5x the profit per car off in the best in the business while doing a fraction of the volume and lacking the economies of scale. It's pure fantasy.

I didn't mean to insult you, but you're a smart guy who needs to understand for his own investing health that he's off in lala land and being played by Nerd Trump. The numbers you posted for 2019 are not going to come anywhere near reality. They're fiction. Pure fantasy.