Purchased more TSLA last week at 171 and this week at $175.

One strategy I try to use is to wait until something I like to own more of has just moved above the 200 day simple moving average.

It simplifies purchasing decisions at the expense of having that one purchase at the bottom. It also tends to cost less for the same amount of stock. Buying before the bottom at 170 (or whatever) is the same as buying after the bottom at 170 (or whatever).

Axios: Axios Harris Poll 100: Year of the tarnished titans

FTX and Tesla, once seen as shining examples of innovation and opportunity, took two of the biggest reputational hits in this year's Axios Harris Poll 100 brand reputation survey.

Tesla saw one of the biggest reputation drops of the past year, from 11th in 2022 to 62nd place this year, with a 74.3 RQ (79.5 in 2022).

Source: https://www.axios.com/2023/05/23/ftx...-rankings-2021

Anecdotally, I know multiple people who sold their Teslas after Musk turned into a conservative SJW.

One day we have a poll saying Elon Musk is the most popular political figure, then the next day Tesla is falling due to Musk. People are choosing their questionable studies to justify the conclusion they started with... I prefer to just look at actual numbers. Anyway Model Y is now the best selling car in the world overtaking the Toyota Corolla:
https://www.motor1.com/news/669135/t...g-car-q1-2023/

Let's see how many years it takes before Tesla holds position #1 and #2 in that ranking. My guess is 3-4years and in those years there will have been so many new cracks showing keeping this thread alive.

Not sure I fully understand your point. Are you saying the poll is biased or inaccurate or its methodology is incorrect? Brand positivity ratings have lagged effects on actual sales, so quoting contemporaneous sales numbers doesn't by itself mean the survey isn't material.

Cracks like failing to report thousands of complaints of unintended acceleration and phantom braking, and instructing employees to hide evidence and avoid written records?

https://jalopnik.com/whistleblower-d...o-g-1850476542

Or you mean cracks like faking the 2016 "full self-driving" video? Why exactly shouldn't Elon be in jail with Elizabeth Holmes and Trevor Milton?

Yeah exactly like that. Since this thread was started there have been so many of these cases where Tesla were committing fraud and Elon should go to jail. Nothing has been sticking. I am gonna guess that the same thing will hold true for this story.

Like I said we will see new cracks every month, then in a few years Tesla will be selling 5M/cars year, FSD will be out, Optimus being used in factories etc and people will still talk about these fraud cases going nowhere. Because it's easier to grasp at straws than to update the internal model of the world with new data.

What new data are you referring to? Deliveries (and the stock price!) are up, but besides that it doesn't look great. Full self-driving is still vaporware, the Cybertruck is a joke, no other new models on the horizon, BYD is eating their lunch in China and market share is down across the board, backlog has dried up, earnings growth has stalled, price cuts keep coming, the solar business is dead... and then throw in a massive criminal conspiracy and consumer fraud for good measure. "Elon's not in jail yet" isn't exactly a bull argument.

What would actually get you to update your internal model of the world and admit that Tesla is facing some serious issues?

Do I have this correct?

TSLA share price 7/17/13 was $120.3
Current price as I type $215.8
79% gain from ten years ago

SP500 7/17/13 was $1680.91
Current price $4283.15
155% gain

(7/17/13 is the date of OP)

There's been quite a few splits since 2013. TSLA has been a very good investment if you bought back then. Very.

What was the price of TSLA on 7/7/13 accounting for all splits?

8$

Elon Musk world's richest person (again) @ $194.8 billion.

And your explanation for the recent 30% runup on the biggest traded stock in the world is... short squezing?

I don't necessarily disagree with your observations but if the best you can come with has zero effect slowing down TSLA, its time to look for a bigger boat.

You don't need to go much further back and it was under $2.

Nearly +100% since this batch of posts in 2023

Yep. IPO’d at $17 and finished first trading day at $24 which due to splits is currently reflected as $1.33.

Look at the years since this thread started. Same arguments from same bears or just moving the goal post.

Yes electric cars is the future, not hydrogen and hybrids. Yes deliveries are up and Tesla has the best selling car in the world. Yes they are the most profitable car company. But Cybertruck is still a joke...

This is how bears always sound. Saying that Tesla got lucky with t0 until today, but from today until the future everything is a joke. That's how they model the world, then look for things to justify this model.

Fast forward a few years, Cybertruck will be a massive success but now Optimus will be a joke and Tesla at $1T valuation will be massively overvalued.

I make predictions about what will happen. Like I did here:
Then things happen that I don't forsee, covid, wars, IRA etc. I change my model. Turned out FSD took longer than I thought, I update my mental model. But bears here were predicting a lot less than 1.5M vehicles, they predicted Tesla would be bankrupt. That requires a lot larger update to the mental model if they want to be less wrong over time if they are an intelligent actor.

Imo make clear falsifiable statements. Not to win on the internet, but to learn to model the world better. Not statement you can angleshoot out of like "is a joke" "eating the lunch" "solar business is dead, real falsifiable statements like my statement above.

That being said, I don't think 2.5M in 2023 will happen, 2.0M seems more likely. It will be slow growth until Model 25k is out and growth takes off again. Difficult macro times for another year minimum. I remain very optimistic about most aspects of Tesla long term.

The true weirdness begins when the strange words and non-sequiturs begin to make sense, begin to sound *coherent*. Some scream and run away; but then the rest of their lives are defined by their violent hatred of those shards of alien thought forever embedded in their minds.

Funny, your predictions sound like you're talking about a car company. And they have the (deteriorating) profit margins of a car company. But yet, they're not valued like a car company. So ultimately that's the crux of the issue: is Tesla a car company, or is it a vertically integrated clean energy, full-self-driving, robotaxi, AI, tech company? Because Tesla could sell 25 million cars a year and it still wouldn't justify their current valuation with automaker margins.

So your predictions on this year or next year's sales are pretty pointless; you're missing the forest for the trees. At the end of the day, everything hinges on whether the autonomy/AI vision is real, or just a fantasy that Elon conjured up to pump the stock to stave off bankruptcy, sell $billions of stock and become the richest man in the world. When Elon's been saying autonomy is right around the corner since 2015, and lied about autopilot safety, and released a video faking a FSD drive, and literally everyone who works in the self-driving industry says he's full of ****, and multiple other companies have more advanced level 3/4 autonomous technology on the road now, and the latest FSD is still a shitshow, and the head of FSD jumped ship last year.. at what point does Occam's razor kick in and you realize maybe you drank a little too much kool-aid?

But sure, I'll play along with some predictions:
- 2023 margins and EPS will be down vs 2022, and both will be down again in 2024
- Inventory as % of sales will continue to grow, indicating a demand problem (and/or accounting fraud!)
- BYD will sell more BEVs than Tesla in Q3 or Q4 this year
- Cybertruck will not have any meaningful sales this year, if any—maybe a few hundred to friends and family
- Cybertruck won't have promised specs (https://electrek.co/2023/05/19/tesla...truck-pricing/) or will cost 100%+ more

Awesome! Let's check back to this post!

Here are some extra from me:

- 2023 EPS(non-gaap) will be up vs 2022, and will be up again in 2024. In fact I believe Q2, Q3, and Q4 will be up YoY, but less confident than for the full year. Tax credits, deferred revenue and other trickery will be blamed by bears but increased volume and lowered costs will compensate for lowered prices.
- Inventory as % of sales will continue to grow, indicating that they have solved their supply problems from covid.
- Cybertruck will have low but meaningful sales this year > 5000. Next year they will sell >50k and end the year >3k/week.
- Cybertruck will mostly be high spec until they decrease the insane backlog(of which there will be many cancellations).

And when will they have level 4 autonomy? Like I said, all of the other predictions are meaningless without that. And what still gives you conviction that they will achieve level 4/5 autonomy, when all signs point to serious shortcomings and failed promises with their approach?

Tesla & Rivian will moon over next 10 years.

Yeah I'm an idiot. I'm aware TSLA went parabolic and yet I still did the lol math on $120 when that should be divided by 15 for a price of $8 to account for splits

Internal model has been updated!

Why Rivian?

Another thought: If Elon Musk suddenly became CEO of Ford overnight, then what would that do to the valuation of Ford?

Great product—they’re starting to appear everywhere in the Bay Area. Owners and press adore them.

Smart, even-keeled CEO.

Amazon backing / partnership.

Stock price currently beaten to a pulp (I can’t argue that a lot isn’t justified)

These will be the new built-tough All- Amurican trucks going forward.

All my opinion of course, but I have bought shares recently and would like to at least double my position eventually.