No one can accuse me of being a TSLA bull, but I don't see how you can call them ex-growth. They're still building new factories (ahem, GIGAfactories), and their Q1 deliveries continue to grow at a substantial rate—up 36% yoy.

A share or a company is described as ex-growth after having had substantial growth in the past but now not holding out prospects for immediate growth of earnings or value.

What would deliveries be without the 15%+ price cuts? More price cuts likely coming, but they will crater earnings obv.

Warren Buffett is betting on BYD and General Motors.

They are greatly lowering costs also due to scale, lower lithium prices, IRA, less shipping, less wave, less deferred FSD revenue. Plus increased FSD take rate, higher insurance take rate, higher supercharger usage due to opening up the network etc. Also not all cars sold in Q4 and Q3 were at the higher prices at the time, lots of orders were from long ago with lower prices.

We will see how earnings turn out in Q1, but I don't think we should expect a 15% drop in GM...

Yep, we'll see. But the fact that the narrative has become about cost-cutting instead of growth, and Elon is back to ranting about short-sellers and regulators, tells you everything you need to know.

The narrative that growth is over seems a bit premature given that they set a new record the last quarter in a seasonally difficult quarter, they recently announced their biggest factory, soon will launch a new model, their factories in Berlin and Austin are setting new records pretty much every month. Maybe when they have had one decrease QoQ it would make sense to bring back that narrative.

Tesla cuts US prices for fifth time since January

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...nd-2023-04-07/

Growth company.

master of coin zach will work his magic. investors won't even notice all those price cuts.

Purchased more TSLA at three weeks ago $193, two weeks ago $197, last week $194.

Some context:


I wonder how they set their prices. Feels a lot like MPP3 and Autobidder which I assume both are based on linear programming.

guess i was wrong

Wow, absolutely awful numbers. Operating margin -40%, net income -24%, free cash flow -80% YoY. And another two price cuts already for Q2 - likely only gets worse from here for the rest of the year.

surprised only down 8% off those numbers

is this all because of the price cuts or is demand weighing on it? and if demand is weighing on it, how much of that is Elon's own personal brand souring amongst the in crowd types that would buy 1 of these money sucks?

According to Zack half of the hit to margin was due to pricing adjustments later in quarter - other half due to non-recurring items like warranty adjustment & some Autopilot related deferrals.

According to Elon orders > production. But price levels affect orders, with a different price the number of order might be different. Doubt Elon's brand is making a huge difference, most people don't care, they just want a good car at a good price. Imo Tesla focuses on the right thing, making the cars cost less to produce, not ads, not brand. It will be very difficult for competition to make profit at these price levels. Hate Elon or not, but at least something is deflationary and consumers benefit from this.

LOL, he said that last quarter too. They've produced more cars than they've sold for 4 straight quarters now.

you'd also, in theory, expect that to go down not up.

with new factories in europe and austin there should be less cars in inventory while in transit from china.

lucky brother kimbal sold $17mil in shares two weeks ago. not the first time he perfectly timed his sales near a top. guy might be the greatest trader of all time.

Yeah, they decided to unroll the wave. Expect a few more quarters of this, then a slow but more steady increase proportional to the production growth.

Not sure about the numbers on the graph, according to page 6 here:
https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/Z...7189ba8.pdf%22
Global vehicle inventory (days of supply) is 15days. One year ago it was 3 days which was extremely low, not very healthy levels imo.

But I was told price cuts are just them scaling market share. 20% of the global fleet by 2028

Growth company.

This is more articulate than I can do it. But pretty much my view.

"Nobody can compete with Tesla on cost."

BYD launching their Seagull model, starting at $11,300. Meanwhile Tesla's $25K model is still years away.

Also, Tesla's gross margins are already worse than most other big automakers, and that's before the full effect of the recent price cuts has been felt:



The growth story is clearly busted, and this new cost-cutting narrative is even sadder.

mercedes had an awesome quarter and beat expectations by a lot.

they are set to report in a week but preannouned some of the numbers yesterday. i guess because their shares got dragged down by tesla's weak report.

Tesla daily podcast eh

Good for them! It will be interesting to see if Tesla will overtake them in cars delivered in Q2 or Q3. Would be surprised they haven't flipped by Q4.