looks like we've lost the memepeg. watch out below

Cmon guys. Even if they never sell another car, their cash position is worth more than that. Setting those low price targets were fun in 2019, not in the end of 2022. What's your guess for 2022Q4 GAAP earnings?

math says it's not

my guess is the master of coin will come up with some nice looking number

I just did a quick look at last quarter's balance sheet so I might have screwed it up royally. But it looks like cash is about $7/share. I'd be happy if you could correct me.

I may be well off as well, but I got around $7 as well (21 billion cash and a bit over 3.1 billion outstanding shares.)

And there's a reason why companies, especially 'innovative' companies, get their cash discounted to less than face value: they are likely to burn it. You really think Elon or his board of acolytes would return that cash to shareholders before going out of business? Look at what Zuck is doing with his cash–a hundred billion for his idiotic Metaverse project. Elon would sooner dump TSLA's cash into research on a perpetual motion machine than return any of it to shareholders.

TSLA got a pop afterhours on this news. I'm sure everybody knows it's a bluff but looks like it was enough to get some shorts to cover. It's holding the pop gains afterhours so far....

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...rs-2022-12-22/

EDIT shorted some here looks weak

Cool. Add another $5B for Q4 and it's $8.4. I was a bit off, but it's near $10. You guys really think they could not auction of the rest of the IP/factories/servers etc for more than $5B? Just look at how much Intel paid for Mobileye($15B), you think Tesla go for much less if Apple decided to buy them?

You think Tesla are likely to burn cash in the near future? Which quarter?

What's your percentage gain looking like?

If people are debating what TSLA could get in a liquidation when the company is still worth close to 400B, feels like things may not be going so great these days....

I am down over $130k USD.
Bought more tesla earlier this week at 142 and
today at $122

TSLA may suffer the same fate as CSCO, never reaching ATH again. It can probably go down another 60-70%.

Americans Are Realizing Tesla Isn’t the Only Electric Car

“He’s talking people out of buying cars that they want to buy,” Ross Gerber, the C.E.O. of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, told me.

https://dnyuz.com/2022/12/23/america...-electric-car/

Vulnerable as in the recently-passed bill that will give electric car buyers a $7500 rebate from the government, which benefits Tesla the most since they're the largest seller of electric automobiles in the country? That doesn't strike me as the Biden admin going after Tesla.

The liquidation debate shows how far bears are from reality, which is the main reason I got into TSLA in the first case. I saw two sides thinking very different things, which indicates that there was a possibility to make money if you could just figure out which side was right. Read the bears arguments and was not convinced, took a position and a few years later was up >10x on the investment.

Here is a a bear case which imo makes more sense:
https://twitter.com/TSLAFanMtl/statu...26952430288899

- Assuming slow Berlin/Austin ramps and Shanghai production decline vs max rate (800k vs 1.1M). Obviously conservative
- I assumed deep discounts across the board, on all trims, on every model. Details in the attachment.
4/ Energy I assume the latest confirmed production rate for Powerwall at 6.5k/week - staying flat all year. This is conservative bc Nevada has now stopped building Megapack so can grow pw.

etc

Which these assumptions, he comes out at $5 GAAP eps for 2023. So around PE 25. I guesstimate the likelihood of 2023 being worse than this bear case to be <10%.

I think Tesla is probably still a bit overvalued despite being down 70% this year, but they are clearly the most efficient auto manufacturer. Their financials show operating margins at 25-30% which dwarf companies like Toyota, Ford and GM who aren't even close --- the hardware margins are fantastic compared to the competition, when the software margins start rolling in..holy crap. The 7.5b in EV charging infrastructure tax credits starting next year seems like it will benefit them tremendously because they are building chargers for 1/5th the price of competition. Bulls and bears seem to have gotten distracted over the past couple years with them "not being a car company, they are a tech/energy company", FSD, robotaxi's, Musk, etc. Free cash flow is 2b-3b per quarter, and with the normal Q4 bump it will probably be 3.5b or 4b this year. I think the semi's and superchargers over the next 3 years will be when long term bears become despondent. If the semi's become economically viable for owner operators, with the only viable charging network along the interstate, holy crap. They say they don't want to make money by reselling kWh, but if that changes when they have 10x more vehicles on the road...
Holy crap.

Tesla share price will probably go below $100 at some point, but even at a 400b market cap...it's probably a really solid long term buy right now...IMO

Musk is good at creating paper profits. Just ask people he fooled into buying doge.

He is pretty good at creating real profits also. Just ask people who he convinced to invest in Zip2, x.com, Tesla, SpaceX etc. This thread was started 2013-07, since then Tesla is up 1400%. Dogecoin was created a few months later trading at US$0.00026, now it's trading at $0.076, that's like 30000%. Not bad for a paper profit?!

not bad, but how many public investors have actually profitted from that

Musk started to heavily promote doge in April 2021

Tons. Robinhood, WSB etc were going crazy over the stock while media were laughing at the stock. Everyone who was bull here back in the days, imo read the first few pages here and see how people used to talk about the company(some still make the same talking points). The intersting thing with TSLA was how little institutional investors were investing in the biggest growth story of the decade. Thanks to silly rules and insane rating companies, many index funds were not invested in Tesla until very late into the story.

This is how TSLA used to be rated:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...1187x1159.jpeg
Because of stubborn bears, idiot MSM, Russian trolls etc lots of people still believe that Tesla is a junk company ignoring how solid their financials have been for the last quarters.

yea and look at it now. he still did on may 8 on snl, so id be very careful with what he promotes. I think he is about to screw up at some point, I mean he already did with doge. I thought tesla is a buy always. not anymore.

There goes another 5% premarket

Still an awful long way to go before this thing is valued on its ability to generate cash over time

Unless I am missing something, is the argument that once these charging stations get scaled out and only Tesla's can be charged at them, it will basically be impossible for the other automakers to catch up?

misread what year was talked about, meant 2022.

I sold the day I posted. Was near 450%. Would be closer to 800% today