Number of cars wont matter if they can't deliver on the things hes promised since most the multiple is based on the tech, not the cars

We will see if he comes through with half the things you mentioned in twice the timeframe, until then calm down a little

I own two Teslas, a model 3 (for about 18 months now ) and a Tesla Modal Y, for about 5 months now.
After I purchased the Y, I started purchasing Tesla stock. Every week since then, high mark at say 334 per share ($1000 pre split), and
a low mark of now $187 per share. I will still keep buying Tesla every week until the end of 2023 Q1 or maybe end of Q2.
I can't time the bottom but will dollar cost average thru it, and be very happy that Elon is compelled to sell his Tesla stock to buy Twitter.

from my point of view, I was deciding on buying an apartment building or buying Tesla Stock.
- Picked Tesla Stock-
Oh.. the wife wants me to buy a Tesla X.

Again a non-falsifiable statement.

Multiples are based on NPV of estimated future earnings. And what matters there are earnings, not "tech".

But tech seems to be doing fine to me. I know bears might disagree, but when I compare FSD to anything from VW, Toyota etc it seems like a big lead to me.

When I compare manufacturing with gigacasting etc, even VW seems to agree:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/24/b...ert-diess.html

With batteries, motors etc it seems they still do fine. Maybe Lucid has something better, maybe not. But among the players making EV at scale, Tesla's tech seems fine.

Charging networks, Tesla stills to have a big lead. Where in the tech do you think they are weak?

So I have to post this here. If you have read my other post in BFI, you know I am an avid reader. I am reading The Moon is a Harsh Mistress by Robert Heinlein
one of the top 12 books recommended by Elon Musk. (I just looked again and there are like 10 different lists.. he reads a lot) I have already read 4 of them.
Well yesterday I was watching an interview of Elon Musk at the B20 summit in Bali Indonesia.
They were talking because Indonesia has lots of rare earth metals such as nickel, needed for battery materials. The host asked about Space X and wondered if Elon was interested
in launching space ships from Indonesia. Elon then pointed out that there is an advantage to launching from a location on the equator and
from an elevated location ie. a mountain top....

Later that night i just happened to read page 249.. of TMIAHM and it describes launching moon bound rockets from India (just north of the equator)
on one of their many mountaintops!!!

Talk about a book looking into the future, and how a book can influence our thinking. The book was written in 1966!

Not too surprising, orbital mechanics has been a well-understood science since at least the 1950's, the basics presumably worked out quite a bit before then. Launching close to the equator is much, much more important than a high elevation. I'd go as far as to say launching from the actual top of a mountain is a bad idea.

To launch something into orbit or beyond you need to reach a certain minimum velocity. You want to be close to the equator because everything on the surface of the Earth (including the thing you're launching into space) is moving faster there relative to the center of the Earth so you're getting some of that needed velocity for free. It doesn't sound like much since we don't really think about how fast we're moving at different points on the Earth but it makes a big difference. This is also why rockets generally launch eastward (that's the direction the Earth rotates).

Starting from a higher altitude gets you a couple of minor benefits but they don't make up for the cost and logistics of putting the launch infrastructure up on the top of a mountain. Plus the weather can be much more problematic at high elevations. We've already seen how often launches get scrubbed due to weather even at sea level.

TLDR: that book, not so prophetic.

I don’t get how it’s prophetic at all when they’d already been launching rockets from Canaveral for a decade before it was written…

Pretty sure dislocating your shoulder to pat Musk on the back is right of passage

Why hasn't Musk built a hyperloop space elevator yet?

Bought more Tesla at $171.

12days later: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1595682322707267584

Elon Musk @elonmusk
Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta is now available to anyone in North America who requests it from the car screen, assuming you have bought this option.

Congrats to Tesla Autopilot/AI team on achieving a major milestone!

Let's see some Semi being delivered on 1dec.


Again bears, please for your own sake, make falsifiable statements. Otherwise you will not be able to backpropagate and your mental model of the world will not be less wrong over time...

You're delusional and it's a joke. Musk isn't a hero; he's the most successful scam artist of all time. That's really all there is to it. You probably walk out of a carnival proud of that bear you won with only $200 worth of tickets

Sure, that might be true. But am I wrong on anything I have posted here? Can you make some falsifiable statement so we can see if you are the delusional one or not? Like when will Tesla fail? When will Musk go to jail? When will twitter stop working? Give us some numbers man, or risk being the delusional one...

it's going to end when musk fans stop believing his lies.

you're much better equipped to answer that question than the tesla critics.

The release has only Level 2 automation. Musk has been promising Level 5 for years.

There is no winning the FSD discussion. They have a product on the market that does a tiny bit more than advanced cruise control so optics are they have the best product. Doesn't matter if its a 96% solution and they are 15 years away, and 10 years behind competition.

Or that Tesla is technically a level 2 and Mercedes technically has a level 3

I'm looking forward to my brain chip. This guy is like a religion to these rubes.

You could lay out a list of all his empty promises, all the gov money he's received, all the stuff he's put out below promised expectations, and they would have an excuse for every single bullet point. It's very impressive

That is what I used to call all the people who picked Apple over PC's.
Apple was not a computer company, and Tesla is not a Car company.
Confirmed rube purchased more Tesla this week at $184.

What kind of dividend does this great Tesla stock pay?

The heaviest load the Semi will haul is it's massive battery pack

Batteries are like 250Wh/kg. For a 900GWh that's 3600kg. An average Semi has an engine of like 1500kg plus some fuel, transmission etc. Sure the Tesla Semi also has motors, but the weight difference will not be that large on a 37ton fully loaded truck.

Today I learned a 2 ton weight difference is nbd

If heltok's figures are right, that's like a 15% reduction in payload for a double-axle semi. Doesn't seem like a deal-breaker. This is all theoretical of course.

Also they are allowed to add ~1 ton extra because of EV. Ie diesel semi = 80k lbs max weight, EV semi = 82k lbs max weight in US.

Choochoo.

i like that we talk about the semi like it matters at all.

they better solve fsd. and quick.
or fair value is 90-100% lower anyway.