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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

11-16-2021 , 03:00 PM
It was just off the top of my head as well. But here's what I found in 2 seconds. Wow I was so off with my 30-40k estimate.
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11-16-2021 , 03:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
If someone is going to spend 60-100k on a car, no one's thinking about buying a Ford.
I think this is one of the major problems with TSLA investors; they don't even know what game they are playing.

The Mustang Mach-E starts at $43000 and is a direct rival to the model 3 and model Y. And as noted, its reviews from pretty much every source indicate it's superior or equal to its competition.

The F-150 Lightning is starting in the $40's and appears to be priced in line with the best selling pickup truck of all time, the regular F-150. How does Tesla intend to compete in this large segment of vehicles? With the Cybertruck?

Are luxury car buyers buying Fords, nope. Is most of the car market in the luxury car segment, nope. As the success of the M3 and MY indicate, most of the market is sub-$60k. Ford is a major player in the sub-$60k space.

But the bigger point isn't: Can Ford best Tesla? The point is, Ford, Chevy, Kia, Hyundai, and VW all have new entrants in the market. At least one is as good or better than Tesla. Tesla's lead is small and shrinking. Good luck getting to market domination.
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11-16-2021 , 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by vikthunder
I think this is one of the major problems with TSLA investors; they don't even know what game they are playing.

The Mustang Mach-E starts at $43000 and is a direct rival to the model 3 and model Y. And as noted, its reviews from pretty much every source indicate it's superior or equal to its competition.

The F-150 Lightning is starting in the $40's and appears to be priced in line with the best selling pickup truck of all time, the regular F-150. How does Tesla intend to compete in this large segment of vehicles? With the Cybertruck?

Are luxury car buyers buying Fords, nope. Is most of the car market in the luxury car segment, nope. As the success of the M3 and MY indicate, most of the market is sub-$60k. Ford is a major player in the sub-$60k space.

But the bigger point isn't: Can Ford best Tesla? The point is, Ford, Chevy, Kia, Hyundai, and VW all have new entrants in the market. At least one is as good or better than Tesla. Tesla's lead is small and shrinking. Good luck getting to market domination.
I'm not a TSLA investor other than the puts I cashed in on a couple weeks ago.

I don't disagree that Ford will have their share of the market and do well there.

It's funny to see that the opposite side of the coin are so blinded by their hate for Tesla that they get triggered by any observation made in even a remotely positive light towards the company.

All I said is that there probably isn't a huge overlap in TSLA and Ford buyers.

Don't let your hate for TSLA make absurd statements like, "No one is buying TSLAs."
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11-16-2021 , 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
It was just off the top of my head as well. But here's what I found in 2 seconds. Wow I was so off with my 30-40k estimate.

That “starting from” does not = what they actually stock and move. It is not even close. Those “starting from” are like 2WD and no frills - basically fleet trucks.
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11-16-2021 , 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by bip!
That “starting from” does not = what they actually stock and move. It is not even close. Those “starting from” are like 2WD and no frills - basically fleet trucks.
lol ok my bad. 40k-50k so sorry. I was off by 10k by making a total guess. Doesn't change my point at all which is that TSLA bears are so jumpy with regards to the slightest remark that paints TSLA in even a remotely non-negative light.
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11-16-2021 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
Doesn't change my point at all which is that TSLA bears are so jumpy with regards to the slightest remark that paints TSLA in even a remotely non-negative light.
i mean... you said they were going for the 60-100k market.

meanwhile, in reality, x & s sell 9000 cars per quarter, down 40% year over year.
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11-16-2021 , 04:32 PM
Good point. How did they do on sales of these though?

All I'm saying is try to be a little more objective. You're not doing yourself any favors by ignoring all the data points that don't favor your view and only highlighting ones that bolster your argument.
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11-16-2021 , 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
In one sense yeah, but you could make an educated guess based on census data and avg twitter users.

Just take median income in US for one and I would bet my statement would be close to true. Exclude California and it's almost a certainty.

Main point is that a million people liking that comment doesn't mean a lot.

And I'm saying this without having a strong opinion on TSLA other than the fact that it is over valued for sure.
Tesla can't hit its massive future sales numbers if it does not win over the economy buyers by presenting a strip down something in their price range.

Bad form all around to just start building enemies within the communities of your future hoped for buyers when Elon could just take an apolitical path as Bezos mostly does in public.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
No clue regarding the quality, but one consideration is that many people would not even consider buying a Ford to begin with. While it may be true that they score better across the board in whatever it is, it doesn't matter if you're not even in the conversation because you've spent decades building a reputation of making cheap cars.

Ford will definitely have their share of the market(likely in the same demographic they've always been in) but things like status and brand name matter as well.

If someone is going to spend 60-100k on a car, no one's thinking about buying a Ford.
That is arguably more true for Tesla though.

Most VW, Honda, Toyota, Ford, Fiat/Chrysler, GM, Hyundai, etc would not consider buying a Tesla or any electric car at this point. Many have loyalty to their brands and little interest in change.

There is a certain demographic within each that might easily adapt or desire an EV and some of them will be open to Tesla but many will just have their need filled by the company they and their parents before them trusted for decades.
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11-16-2021 , 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
I'm not a TSLA investor other than the puts I cashed in on a couple weeks ago.

I don't disagree that Ford will have their share of the market and do well there.

It's funny to see that the opposite side of the coin are so blinded by their hate for Tesla that they get triggered by any observation made in even a remotely positive light towards the company.

All I said is that there probably isn't a huge overlap in TSLA and Ford buyers.

Don't let your hate for TSLA make absurd statements like, "No one is buying TSLAs."
I think the frustration is that most Tesla boosters argue Tesla will dominate on both Market Share across the board while also keeping industry dominant profit margins on vehicles sold.

So they will be the volume king and the margin king. Two concepts that rarely go together.

I have argued I think Tesla can maintain a Porsche like position in the emerging EV market with a line of Premium high margin vehicles that make the company enormous profits per vehicle but that it will be near impossible to do that and also compete in the daily commuter mass volume market.

The answer back is that people just won't care about any cars other than Tesla's so they will just seek them out and buy them regardless of price, regardless of their generational relationship with Ford or Honda, etc.
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11-16-2021 , 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Cuepee
I think the frustration is that most Tesla boosters argue Tesla will dominate on both Market Share across the board while also keeping industry dominant profit margins on vehicles sold.

So they will be the volume king and the margin king. Two concepts that rarely go together.

I have argued I think Tesla can maintain a Porsche like position in the emerging EV market with a line of Premium high margin vehicles that make the company enormous profits per vehicle but that it will be near impossible to do that and also compete in the daily commuter mass volume market.

The answer back is that people just won't care about any cars other than Tesla's so they will just seek them out and buy them regardless of price, regardless of their generational relationship with Ford or Honda, etc.
Good points, I pretty much agree with everything you've said.

I just find it funny when people hate Tesla so much they make comments like, "No one is going to buy a Tesla because they can't compete with Ford."
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11-16-2021 , 05:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
The answer back is that people just won't care about any cars other than Tesla's so they will just seek them out and buy them regardless of price, regardless of their generational relationship with Ford or Honda, etc.
Yeah I agree this is a pretty silly argument. I definitely don't see the avg Joe Americano who is currently buying a Ford or Honda switching over and even more so if it's significantly more expensive to do so.
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11-17-2021 , 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by BooLoo
i mean... you said they were going for the 60-100k market.

meanwhile, in reality, x & s sell 9000 cars per quarter, down 40% year over year.
Dude, Tesla will go 2 years without selling a single Model S or X in Europe. Where do you live that you do not know that? They have taken them off-market.
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11-17-2021 , 03:48 PM
that's what i'm talking about´? they are pretty explicitely not going after the 60-100k market right now.

thanks for making my point, i guess´?
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11-17-2021 , 10:42 PM
In the past I was a massive bear but I fully pledge my allegiance to my saviour the great Elon Musk. Although at 1.1 Trillion market cap, I see a 10X from here to eclipse Apple, Amazon, Google, etc many times over. At some point the entire stock market will be Tesla! The future is so bright guys!!!
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11-22-2021 , 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by theviolator
In the past I was a massive bear but I fully pledge my allegiance to my saviour the great Elon Musk. Although at 1.1 Trillion market cap, I see a 10X from here to eclipse Apple, Amazon, Google, etc many times over. At some point the entire stock market will be Tesla! The future is so bright guys!!!

I think Tesla might be showing cracks guys.
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11-26-2021 , 11:39 AM
Even at current valuations, it's going to be difficult for TSLA to build enough capacity to dominate the car market. They just don't have enough capital to build the number of cars that are required for the entire world. Plus they are weak in consumer trucks which is the most profitable market segment. I like FORD F longerm. If the car becomes a licensing opportunity for tech companies like Google and Apple Ford will essentially become a tech company and the car essentially becomes the delivery device. With cheap financing, they will be able to expand gross margins on top of the new sources of revenue. It's going to be an extremely lucrative market for them. Paradigm shift.
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11-26-2021 , 08:17 PM
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Originally Posted by coordi
The stock gained 120 billion in market cap just today.

But, why? I haven't been following the stock market at all so legit question.

At what point do they have to produce something of tangible value besides a car before the market starts to question their ability to produce anything of tangible value besides a car?
why? bc capitalism is infallible at allocating resources and assessing value.
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11-28-2021 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by starssavior
Even at current valuations, it's going to be difficult for TSLA to build enough capacity to dominate the car market. They just don't have enough capital to build the number of cars that are required for the entire world. Plus they are weak in consumer trucks which is the most profitable market segment. I like FORD F longerm. If the car becomes a licensing opportunity for tech companies like Google and Apple Ford will essentially become a tech company and the car essentially becomes the delivery device. With cheap financing, they will be able to expand gross margins on top of the new sources of revenue. It's going to be an extremely lucrative market for them. Paradigm shift.
What are you saying exactly? Ford is going to license their cars as "Apple F150"??\
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11-28-2021 , 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by muttiah
What are you saying exactly? Ford is going to license their cars as "Apple F150"??\
I THINK he's saying the opposite - that Ford will license tech from, for example, Apple to use on the F150 and be able to compete with something like a Tesla truck on the tech front while still capitalizing on the Ford and F150 brands
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11-28-2021 , 09:48 PM
The car companies hate licensing iOS CarPlay/Apple CarPlay and Google's Android Auto as it is. At the very least, the dealerships hate servicing the integrated systems, and the manufacturers haven't even run into end of life issues with those two platforms yet because its new (for now).
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11-30-2021 , 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by muttiah
What are you saying exactly? Ford is going to license their cars as "Apple F150"??\
That Google (Waymo) and Apple will not look to manufacture auto's ever and will hope to make the breakthroughs that will entice manufacturers to buy their tech and attach it to their existing fleets.

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11-30-2021 , 09:13 PM
I think from a purely investing....long-term play....Lucid is a better choice (currently about $53 / share).
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12-06-2021 , 09:17 PM
Today the NY Times had a scathing article on the fraud with FSD and Autopilot. Countless families suing after burning to death once the cars implode and crash. Result? Stonk price up
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12-08-2021 , 08:20 AM
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Originally Posted by theviolator
Today the NY Times had a scathing article on the fraud with FSD and Autopilot. Countless families suing after burning to death once the cars implode and crash. Result? Stonk price up
You must be new to US capitalism and especially the auto industry.
Growing revenues while killing people is kinda the business model.
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12-12-2021 , 12:21 AM
Who are Tesla's biggest fans on this site and would a single one of you argue that this, the highlighted, is reasonable with a 80% chance of success? 10% chance?? 1% chance???

Would any of you bet on it, Av or Sig, if not cash??

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