Which is what Tesla will flood the market with during the second half of the decade.

You seem to think that Tesla has no advantage over the legacy competition. Imo watch some sandy munro videos and hear what he has got to say. And this is Tesla that was small and was catching up for most of the last two decades. Imo they will keep running faster than the competition as they attract better talent and have an organisation that allows engineers to work more effectively and are willing to do rapid changes and make aggressive investments. With direct sale model, no ads, own insurance, large scale purchases of batteries and inhouse production, vertical integration and better enviromental reputation(Dieselgate, Toyota delaying electrification etc) etc Tesla can sell better cars for less and still maintain high margins while competition will have negative margins or sell a worse product for more.

Ok anyway. We are not convincing anyone. I got to hear some bear thesis, thanks. You got to hear some bull thesis, yw. Let’s check back in while and see what happened. I am gonna guess ~300k deliveries for Q4 ending the quarter at an even higher run rate. Then next year >1.5M deliveries for a solid >60% growth. What’s your predictions?

What's the capital gains tax on this in the US? If it's not at least 30%, you know why the country is so unequal.

So in your opinion Tesla will also flood the market with all sorts of EV options?? How many models do you think Tesla will have in the next 10 years, 20 years?

How many models in comparison do you think all the other manufacturers will have combined in 10 years and 20 years? And again I would point you to the article I cited above that shows the newer EV manufacturers are ALREADY starting to gain in the market share of people who convert to EV's and they only have a handful of offerings. So as they go to hundreds of offerings and Tesla is maybe at 15 models it is hard to see them not taking most of the share.

And you seem to always ignore the most key point.

MOST BUYERS DO NOT BUY AUTOS FOR THE UPSELL FEATURES!

So you can keep telling us how great Tesla is (and I am not arguing with that) but that simply will not matter one iota to all the budget buyers who just want as low price daily commuter car, as stripped down as possible to replace their eco box, or used beater car.

That you think these are the people who will pay up for the newest Tesla (like iPhone zealots) is just a massive misread of the auto industry. Again Mercedes and BMW and Audi were always offering these people a much more technical enhanced and better ride. Heck on the same lot someone would choose a stripped down base Honda Fit they had much nicer, more tech advanced cars and those buyers never spent two seconds considering them.

But in your bet you see this great unwashed all becoming the core of faithful Tesla buyers willing to buy Tesla autos as they keep the profit margins high and offer tech advanced autos when Honda is going to have a stripped down Fit EV that offers nothing but a EV battery and very basic ride still having wind up and down windows and AM/FM radio.

From the article...

"... The reason: a looming tax bill of more than $15 billion.

Musk was awarded options in 2012 as part of a compensation plan. Because he doesn’t take a salary or cash bonus, his wealth comes from stock awards and the gains in Tesla’s share price. The 2012 award was for 22.8 million shares at a strike price of $6.24 per share. Tesla shares closed at $1,222.09 on Friday, meaning his gain on the shares totals just under $28 billion....

Now my understanding is that they are using that near 50% rate based on a Statement Elon made before moving to Texas and when Cali State taxes would also hit his gain. Texas has no such tax (which is why I think he moved, like Joe Rogan) and as such he will just pay the maximum Federal rate of 37% or ~$10B.

what are you talking about´? i can order a custom model 3 for delivery in december right now.

they grew from 0 to 1% of global car sales in those 13 years.

giga china is exporting 3/4 of cars to europe last month while chinese car makers like byd or xpeng have trippled their sales y/y. doesn't look that good to me.

Since options were awarded while in California he is subject to California rates. Options are regular income not cap gains

But it’s gonna set you back $53k.

So we are back to first month of the quarter is looking bad in x market? So many cracks… How many percent is Tesla up YoY? 348%. Keep trying to spin it to look bad, then in December we will see how bad the quarter actually was… Ok I am officially out.

The major cracks are so large, they've only been getting larger over the past six years. Ironically, everything the bulls have said have come true.
The major crack at the moment is that they will not have been delivering any Model S or X in Europe for almost 2 years.

Are you trolling with the above or do you actually believe that if we go back 5 Years and look at all the future guidance Tesla gave since that point forward, on what the company was going to achieve/deliver and the Bulls promoted was achieved 100% of time? That Tesla has yet to have a miss in any area?

Full Self Driving!

- Full self driving was promised by 2018 in a 2016 tweet from Elon.

- 1 Million Robotaxis by 2020

- 2017 promise of newer better Tesla Roadster by 2020 that blew away prior performance and become the quickest car ever built but with a 620 mile range

-2017 announcement of Tesla Semi truck by 2019

- Tesla Cybertruck will deliver first units to customers in 2021 (technically still some time left)


Not to get too nitpicky so i'll just put the links to countless more (some of which are nitpicky) in the spoiler box and just leave those major ones above.




Thus why I am curious if that guy is joking/trolling, or serious??

Tesla has delivered on far less of their promises than they have hit. Exponentially less and I am not counting simply being a bit late a miss. This is not about a promise made for April that 'haha did not get delivered until May' and is more about hyping things that will likely never deliver.

Like the Tesla AI dancing robot. I put that at near zero chance of ever being delivered.

Why did Musk put it out though? As it adds one more item to the Convergence bucket for his devotees who will suggest Tesla is in so many areas they just need 2 -3 grand slams to justify their price and they have so many areas to get them in.

There is simply no reason to think Tesla will the company to hit a grand slam in general AI robotics. NONE, with so many companies with that sole focus and Tesla having no direct focus in that area.

It was odd seeing their CEO sell at basically the peak of the bull cycle. Especially considering Rivian is starting to ramp up.

Yikes, Elon is taking on Bernie. Between Andy Richter, Martina Navratalova and other heavy Twitter accounts there are 1million+ Likes of people saying they will never buy a Tesla with how Elon is behaving. In hindsight the top will have been obvious

To be fair most of that million likely couldn't afford a Tesla anyways.
It's the whole boycotting something you were never going to buy/go to anyways.

You have no way of knowing that.

In one sense yeah, but you could make an educated guess based on census data and avg twitter users.

Just take median income in US for one and I would bet my statement would be close to true. Exclude California and it's almost a certainty.

Main point is that a million people liking that comment doesn't mean a lot.

And I'm saying this without having a strong opinion on TSLA other than the fact that it is over valued for sure.

It only means a lot when a million randos say they're going to buy a Tesla.

Kind of a poor choice as the CEO to basically sell the top when your stock is gaining momentum. Remember when the LTC dude sold at top?

I'm curious whether any of the people touting Tesla's big lead in car quality have driven a Mustang Mach-E.

That car appears to consistently grade out better or equal to the model Y equivalent according to most reviewers. That seems to demonstrate that Tesla's lead in electric vehicles is substantially smaller than most TSLA investors may want to admit.

Currently, Ford can't make enough of them to steal substantial market share (only 50k in 2021). But it does show that competitors are more than capable of putting out an equal or superior product.

What's going to happen when the F150 lightning beats the cybertruck to market?

No clue regarding the quality, but one consideration is that many people would not even consider buying a Ford to begin with. While it may be true that they score better across the board in whatever it is, it doesn't matter if you're not even in the conversation because you've spent decades building a reputation of making cheap cars.

Ford will definitely have their share of the market(likely in the same demographic they've always been in) but things like status and brand name matter as well.

If someone is going to spend 60-100k on a car, no one's thinking about buying a Ford.

If someone is going to spend 60-100k on a car, no one's thinking about buying a Tesla either.

X and S are pretty much dead.

Have you priced trucks lately?

I saw some RIVN ones said they start at $65k. I think that's the range TSLA's will likely be as well.

Ford will likely target people in the $30-40k range I would imagine.

I don't know. So far where I live everyone always buys them all up.

Always a waitlist to get one so seems like someone's buying them.

Ford F-150 is one of the most successful vehicles of all time. Year after year I think it is something north of 600k units. It is good quality, and average sticker is higher than you are thinking - in the high 40s for average probably.

(All off top of my head - so correct away)