Regarding cybertruck crash safety:


Pretty sure it will have a crumple zone in the front.

The semi is delayed because they don’t have enough batteries as they have been ramping 3/Y a lot and 3/Y has a lot higher revenue per Wh than semi it makes little sense to introduce it when they are battery constrained.

For being late with everything they sure seem to be able to ramp pretty successfully. Imo better to say 1year and take 2 years than say 5 years and take 5 years. I care more about ramping deliveries and operating margins than following through on every statement. But sure I can see why this looks like another crack.

let's just say i don't think sandy munro is a very independent voice on the topic since this:



that would be my guess.
like i said, making a real car from that prototype might be one reason for the delays.

i don't really care for the reasons.
i just see other guys selling trucks and capturing market share and them not.

i.e. here:
https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaS...l?oid=50885584

The big "innovation lead" Tesla has enjoyed that made them jump out to such a big lead was that they had EV's and others did not. For that growing body of people who wanted an EV they had very little choice.

That gap is not only closing but as per the article I posted above Tesla is now losing market share to the other manufacturers. And that makes sense as only a certain percent of those who want an EV will specifically want a Tesla EV. Many will be price shoppers and some will have loyalty to the brans they know (Toyota, etc). And these other brands are only at the beginnings and are going to flood the zone with hundreds of EV's in the coming years.

So I am curious what Innovation lead do you think Tesla could have next that can maintain or grow their market share? Are you talking about "Convergence"? Tesla not just getting a Grand Slam win and dominating Auto's but also dominating many other parallel sectors? Multiple Grand Slam home runs back to back?


This shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the market trend and commitments.

If anyone is investing believing what you say above they are really naïve.

Sure they were happy with the status quo but now they are and will continue to push their entire platforms towards EV's. It is about scale and as scale comes in EV's they can and will be as profitable as ICE auto's.

Anyone investing in Tesla's under your belief all the other manufacturers are turning back is in a bad spot.
Agree these are just MORE, competitors going to flood the zone. So even if you believe Tesla will remain the premium brand (and that is fine to believe) you have to understand that Pie is going to be carved up amongst dozens of players.
They have that now. The article I linked above showing Tesla is losing market share proves that.

You need to understand that most people only care about an Auto as something that gets from Point A to Point B.

So they will not be loyal to Tesla (a brand they have never owned) if they can buy an EV cheaper that gets them to work and back and costs them less.

A giant percent of the populace just won't care beyond not needing gas and having the battery capacity to get from A to B.


OK so this is it.

That is what I thought and I have been digging for.

A bet on Tesla is actually a bet n Convergence. That this one company is not only going to hit a Grand Slam homerun in Auto's but they are going to hit multiple grand slams in many areas.

A belief that maybe the dancing Robot becomes real and they dominate AI and the Robotaxi's become a thing and Tesla is the one to dominate.

And based on that bet Tesla does deserve a massive P/E for those making that bet. Just like if you bet at that start of the MLB season on which two teams will make it to the World Series and which team will win. You get massive odds for that bet as its almost impossible to get right and if you do get it right you get a massive pay off.

That is what a bet on Tesla's Convergence play is. Betting they will dominate MUTLIPLE business sectors back to back and it won't be Google or others winning in any of them... that Tesla dominates ALL is a massive bet ... a crazy bet... and if it wins you guys deserve it.

And I am fine with those types of crazy gambles. Take your shot. But understand it and embrace it for what it is.

If you have the balls to put your money down and bet that at the start of each of the next three innings we will have 3 Grand slam homeruns, back to back to back, then good on you if you actually cash in and win.

but when you make that bet you should be realistic about the odds.

So again a bet on Tesla is a bet they will win on 'Convergence'?

That Tesla will hit many back to back to back Grand Slams and shut out Google, Apple, Amazon, VW, Toyota, etc and all the others including Start Ups in multiple sectors.

In that case I agree it deserves the P/E bubble as that is a massive bet and if you win on such a massive bet you get the massive odds payout.

Panasonic making the deal with Tesla to set up their battery factory in the same facility as Tesla‘s production is the worst business decision of the past century. This is because the Tesla cult members have convinced themselves that the Panasonic battery factory is actually Tesla is battery factory

Vague and grandiose claims with little to no concrete statements

You may want to read that article again - because it isn't saying what you think it's saying.

Example:
If you have 100% market share at 100k units and someone comes in the next year and sells 10k units while you expand to 190k units in the same timespan
Is it really:
"Oh noes! They are losing market share. Down from 100% to 95%!"
Well...no. It's more like 'look at those other losers trying to grab some crumbs. How cute.'

Some are eating into the EV market while Tesla is eating much faster into the ICE market. What you totally miss here is that the EV market size is not static. It's expanding to eat up all the ICE market.


Well, I did (mid 2019). Currently sitting at 25x. So even if Tesla decided to drop by 90% tomorrow I'd still be very happy with my gains if I had to take them then.
Would I put any money in today? No. Not because I think the stock won't grow in the next 5-10 years, but because the money I could put in at the moment would only buy me a few extra percent.

I am assuming the market will be near 100% EV in the future. So I would argue that if very good news for Elon.

But that does not change the fact that the other auto makers are starting to eat into the share as that transforms. It does not change the fact that those other manufacturers are only in their infancy and will soon be flooding the zone with EV's.

Let me ask you this assuming we are at near 100% EV market share.

Do you think that most citizens will be loyal Tesla buyers regardless of price and will care about 'new technology' leads and who has them or do you think the bulk of buyers will just mostly be price buyers and the guy who has bought only Honda's for the last 30 years will be just fine buying a lower end EV Honda?

Also these are the graphs of last years sales i posted...

Lets assume, these are all now EV cars instead, where do you think Tesla is in this chart and how would you change the top 5? Just give me a guesstimate as what you think Tesla success would look like?

For instance right now the Top 5 represent Just over 35MM auto's and Tesla represents 500k. Do you see that flipping? Tesla takes 35MM market share and they share 500K? Not that extreme... then how much?

A bet on Tesla is that Tesla shares will be worth more in the future.

You can try to simplify bull thesis into a single word if you want, but it’s not reality. The bull theses are sums of different probabilities for different revenues at different margins for different products and services.

Imo do the math. If Tesla manages to make 20M vehicles @ $50k average selling price with 25% operating margin that is $250B profit/year (numbers chosen to make math simple). P/E 10 would take them to $2.5T market cap. This is before any robotaxi, Dojo as a service, energy storage, teslabot etc.

Tesla are aiming for and making investments to deliver 20M vehicles/year in 2030. Will they get there? Will they get there earlier? Will they get close to it? Will they be very far away from that number? We don’t know, so we guesstimate. Bears make a lower guesstimate than bulls. Who guesses most right makes money in the fun game. So far bears have been pretty bad at predicting deliveries and operating margins. They thought Tesla would be dead many times over by now, Tesla still is alive. They thought Tesla would never make Model 3, Tesla are making 3 and Y. They thought Tesla would never make a profit, Tesla is making a profit.

I ask you bears. Please make some falsifiable statements. For your own sake. Guess how many cars Tesla will make in 2022, 2023. Guess how much profit they will make in 2022, 2023. It is so sad that this thread keeps going on year after year. Tesla still showing cracks, Tesla is a fraud, Elon is a liar. Meanwhile it’s been the biggest growth story in tech, their market cap has passed a trillion, the entire car industry is rattled. And Tesla still showing cracks, Tesla is a fraud, Elon is a liar.

And i honestly have no issue with that. A bet on Art is the exact same and that is fine.

I was just trying to dig and see if it was anything more that can be articulated??

That word "convergence" is not to be taken lightly. It is the main word used by any analyst who supports Tesla's value.


Ok, 'convergence'.

Yes I know you don't like the word, but what you write there is exactly what they mean with Convergence so I am not sure if you just know that or you some how think it is insulting to use the word and instead we should all break it out in long form as you do.


Ok but let me drop this here as a place holder.




Ok sure.

But understand we can predict anything. The question is how likely that is.

So in your assumption you have Tesla simply just achieving the Net Income of the Top 5 in my chart just above. Is that it? WHy not theorize with all of them?

If you move up to my prior chart you have given 100% of the current volume of VW, Toyota and Fiat Chrysler and at the same time after achieving that size and scale (a new MEGA car corp) you are still saying they will continue growing faster than all others who only get a 7-9 P/E and Tesla will grow at 10x.

You do understand the bigger you get the tougher it is to grow exponentially right?

You also have Tesla making the best gross margins any auto company enjoys. Ok fine if that is your bet, but I hope you recognize that it will be tough to be a massive VOLUME seller while maintaining premium type margins.

If Tesla focused on lower volumes and being the premium brand only sure but you know Hyundai, Kia, Toyota, GM and others are going to completely flood the zone with low price EV's so I would be curious how you see Tesla scooping all that market share from them (as you suggest they will) while keeping huge margins??

Are you assuming that everyone will just want the Tesla name even if they have to pay a premium? I know most current Tesla buyers would but as it expands to the masses is that your expectation?


And i agree with that.

I am just pointing out that it is a very low EV bet but that is why it has the big payoff odds. Those things naturally go together. The lower the EV and your willingness to bet the bigger the pay out when you do win.

As I said 20M vehicles per year with industry breaking margins is pretty crazy but hey, if they somehow hit it, they deserve it.

Just one more time. How do you reconcile such high volume sales with also top level, speciality type car like margins?

I don't think the Bears have been that wrong actually. Tesla's list of misses is far bigger than their wins. Tesla is not profitable outside gov't tax credits and if the gov't changes that policy and support Tesla is again suffering losses.

But the bears have been terribly wrong if they are short sellers. Tesla enjoys vast belief that it will get there ('Convergence') and that support is not going any time soon that I can see. I would not sell it short.

This is not a question for me.

I am not predicting a Tesla failure. I am just doing analysis on the current real value versus the air or inflated value in the stock.

And don't get offended by that.

Before Elon even had a car to sell (still a design) they raised money which means people were putting value on a FUTURE bet.

Surely you and i can see that a $1MM or $10MM or a $1B value pre start up for investors are just differing levels of air in the bubble. There is nothing real yet but people are valuing (making a bet on) the future BELIEF they will deliver.

You and I can say 'that is air as they are not there yet' and we do not have to be able to tell you what they may eventually deliver to make that statement.

It can be 'air' at the time and yet Tesla can go on to be a huge winner after that and it does not change that it was air at the time.

Do you understand that?

With many countries forbidding the sale of ICE vehicles and a lot of people wanting to get rid of their gas cars before they become completely worthless on the used car market I could see Tesla making 20m vehicles in 2030 or thereabouts.
I also don't think using the 2020 numbers for car sales is relevant because they are artificially low due to Covid. My estimte is based on the 2018 car sale numbers (86m)

However my own thesis is that Tesla will sell quite a bit less, but by then they will already be massively active in the global energy market as well as world leader in charging networks and very profitable in their insurance business.
I'm not counting on robotaxi or dojo, but those would be nice cherries on top.

The real long shot (even less likely than robotaxi or dojo-as-a-service) is Tesla bot. If they can get this to work that would upend the ENTIRE world labor force. The profit potential in this would be gargantuan.

I hear musk is working on a take home alchemy kit, that'll be a game changer too

Ok but 20MM cars from Tesla alone is a massive amount of market share. You know that right.

Explain to me why you do not think the other major manufacturers who are just starting to flood the EV zone with cars and already starting to erode Tesla's market share will not continue to do so?

And I get why current Tesla fanatics may only ever buy Tesla's but tell me why you think the guy whose last 6 cars were Toyotas wont buy one of the dozen or so model of EV's sitting on their lot?

Because that is where Tesla got most of their current buyers. People who had no choice for an EV except for Tesla and who then became loyal, but do you think that becomes harder and they lose share when the person trading in their Toyota has an option for a Tesla EV?

So despite the fact you think Tesla is going to hit grand slam in many other areas you still have them hitting a grand slam in Auto sales.

Do you realize and agree that dancing Robot (AI) and energy and other businesses are even a bigger long shot than Auto's and the more stack needed Grand slams the harder it is to get them.

It is one thing if you need one grand slam homerun in a game to win it. You seem to be betting Tesla will hit multiple homeruns, in about 3 or 4 of their 5 or 6 times (different business units) up to bat.

I don't know what's going on with TSLA sales to Hertz but I know Hertz got commercials showing they got Teslas for rent now.

I think hertz bought a bunch of Teslas but Musk has to protect the supply limited story line at all costs. So he says there is no deal publicly and hope everyone forgets.

You keep talking about people flooding the ice market before they become worthless and the car market is literally boom town right now. New cars can’t be made fast enough. Used cars are selling for more than people purchased years ago. It’s this massive disconnect with reality right off the bat that hurts potential credibility

But even if avoid that assumption and grant that all ICE vehicles will disappear and EV's will rule (I believe that BTW), it is hard to reconcile while people believe Tesla will be the Volume Sales leader (20MM vehicle a year or the volumes of VW, Toyota and Fiat combined) while also maintain Premium type margins and Profits (that only niche speciality vehicle currently enjoy) and still, at that dominant size being growing faster than any other Auto company such that they should maintain a higher P/E?


I mean most of these things as basic business principles are in direct conflict with one another.

If you want to be the volume leader (selling 20MM and growing faster) then you typically have to sacrifice margins and chase the masses based on price.

My mom, like many buyers will not care if her next auto is ICE or EV. She will buy based on price and typically loyalty. Her last 5 vehicles going back to 1970's have been Toyota's.

If Toyota is offering a cheaper priced EV than Tesla to try and keep her loyal how do Tesla enthusiasts they will steal her next purchase away?

She is far more reflective of the wider auto buying market than the typical current Tesla buyer who is fiercely loyal to the brand and would buy it even if they have to pay a premium. Buyers who had little choice but Tesla if they wanted an EV.

SO how does Tesla achieve those growth numbers? How do they steal away those more 'price driven' buyers who are already loyal to other brands?


Would any Tesla supporter who thinks they know how that can be achieved be willing to try and answer that question for me?

I'd like to see a study into the resources necessary to supply the battery fleet for global EV adoption.

Seems questionable we could scale the mining economically and environmentally

Its likely a balance would be best, where we have ICE cars that produce an amount of pollution that is processable by the environment and limit the damage caused by producing the batteries.

Really depends on what battery chemistry (or more likely chemistries) we'll be seeing. Today it's already fracturing into NMC for the higher end cars (with manufacturers already moving away from the 'C' (cobalt) in facor of more 'N' (nickel)) and LFP.

For NMC nickel is the bottleneck. There's enough of that stuff around but not enough mining companies producing it. Lithium is basically infinitely available (can be extracted from seawater at almost the price at which lithium is being currently traded). Lithium ion batteries also contain far less lithium than people imagine (about 12-16kg in a Model S depending on battery size).

LFP materieals are pretty much infinitely available (LFP = lithium iron phosphate)

CATL seems to believe that their new sodium battery will be the next big thing in cars - and it well might, if the specs pan out and the materials can be integrated into standard manufacturing processes. Sodium is also basically infinitely available (mined or in seawater).

Beyond that there are more players like Lithium-Sulfur. The good thing about all these is that they are basically 'drop in' replacements for each other. So if materials for one get too expensive the other can take over (As an example see what Tesla did with the Model Y. They changed mid-production from NMC to LFP)

Such an amount does not exist anymore. To keep the Earth habitable long term we're already counting on CO2 removal from the atmosphere and long term sequestration.
Countries aren't commiting to carbon neutrality (or net negative) by 2050 out of the goodness of their hearts. Research shows that if we don't get rid of the excess CO2 in the atmosphere fast we'll go extinct in short order (when scientists used the word 'catastrophic' in the IPCC report they really meant it. That's not hyperbole)

This. Imo what we will see for the next 5 years:
High Nickel for performance/long range applications such as S/X/Roadster/Semi
Low Nickel Manganese for medium performance/range applications such as Y/3 LR
LFP for low price vehicles such as 3/Y/2
LFP/Sodium for storage

CATL are investing a lot into scaling. Tesla have very ambitious scaling goals. Tesla are betting that they can decrease the capital needed to scale with tech they presented at battery day. CATL is betting that they can scale with a bit less tech but with Chinese manufacturing prowess.

In about 5-10years we might see solid state redraw the map a little, but imo don’t invest in QS as they will not see any major profits to justify current marketcap with 4680 LFP as competition. Imo QS/Nikola/Lucid/Nio etc combined is what the bears think Tesla is.


VW CEO about Tesla:

if i wanted to renegotiate the contract with all my union workers, that's exactly what i would say, too.

loud and very often.

This is what Ford CEO is saying:

yeah, like i said.

every ceo will use tesla's market cap to rally the troops and negotiate with the unions.

Is this like when they wanted robotaxis in 2019?


Have they worked out the air friction problem with their robots that currently limits their production?

Yes, pretty much. Though there is a chance to see sodium in cars.
Looking deeper into solid state batteries I find they're not all they're cracked up to be. LFP off the assembly line currently has up to 10 times the lifetime of optimally (i.e. in the lab) produced solid state batteries. 'Reduced fire hazard' is a spurious argument as conventional li-ion batteries already are far less likely to catch fire than gas cars (and no one cared about them catching fire)
In this case it might well be that 'good enough but cheaper' will beat 'marginally better'.
So for now I'm staying away from investing into solid state battery companies.