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Old 07-17-2021, 04:09 PM   #14601
CoolTimer
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

So why will they never solve the edge cases? Why did they get to this point, and won't go much further? Is it data, computing, algo? What's lacking in your opinion to solve this problem? Can nobody solve it, or will other companies be able to?

Also a small sidenote, but a 99.9% FSD to me doesn't mean that a person dies 0,01% of the time, it just means there are still certain edge cases TSLA doesn't handle well, but overall it could be a much better driver than humans at that point.
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Old 07-17-2021, 04:19 PM   #14602
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolTimer View Post
So why will they never solve the edge cases? Why did they get to this point, and won't go much further? Is it data, computing, algo? What's lacking in your opinion to solve this problem? Can nobody solve it, or will other companies be able to?
The edge cases are the problem with making a FSD. Everything else before that is the easy part that has been solved multiple ways a long time ago. Them going back to drawing board and making a completely different system just shows they couldn't fix the old one, which is not surprising at all.
Quote:
Also a small sidenote, but a 99.9% FSD to me doesn't mean that a person dies 0,01% of the time, it just means there are still certain edge cases TSLA doesn't handle well, but overall it could be a much better driver than humans at that point.
These differences do matter a lot, but I think that's just bad for Tesla. Driving yourself, you know when situation gets dangerous and you concentrate and try to get out of it. With a shitty FSD that is 99.999% correct you should be absolutely shitting your pants and ready to act every moment you're using it.
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Old 07-17-2021, 04:31 PM   #14603
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I appreciate the answers, but it still doesn't explain to me what so different about edge cases vs the easy part of solving this problem. Edge cases make it sound like there's a lack of data. But then there's a world where TSLA has 5M+ cars on the road and years of data collection where they actually do get enough data even for the edge cases in 5-10y?
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Old 07-17-2021, 04:55 PM   #14604
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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I appreciate the answers, but it still doesn't explain to me what so different about edge cases vs the easy part of solving this problem. Edge cases make it sound like there's a lack of data. But then there's a world where TSLA has 5M+ cars on the road and years of data collection where they actually do get enough data even for the edge cases in 5-10y?
Because how these machine learning systems work, they're basically black boxes where you feed data and get an answer. Usually it's not a problem when you get a wrong one, but in a car it can be an accident. When your ML doesn't give you the correct answers, you turn the knobs and tune the input and hope you can get better ones. Which is ok if you're aiming for 90% accuracy, but not going to help when you aim for 100 or even 99%. Limits of what benefit an unlimited amount of data can give you fizz out way way way before a reasonably safe FSD%, Machine learning systems are just way too limited currently to recognize these well and all the other methods are not even close to handling the unlimited edge cases of real world.

I'm not so sure these problems will be even solved this decade, because the last 0.001% or whatever is just from so different world of problems than the first part, but it surely doesn't look like Tesla will be the one to do it if it happens.
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Old 07-17-2021, 05:11 PM   #14605
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Take GPT-3 as an example, which probably is one of the most complicated AIs today. It took $12 million computing power just to train it, with simple text, no images or video.

It's ok if you can refresh it 10 times and choose the best result. Using similar AI for your autopilot or at least for most data feeds for your autopilot code from much, much, much more complicated real world video? Nah, not even close.
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Old 07-18-2021, 03:18 PM   #14606
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolTimer View Post
I appreciate the answers, but it still doesn't explain to me what so different about edge cases vs the easy part of solving this problem. Edge cases make it sound like there's a lack of data. But then there's a world where TSLA has 5M+ cars on the road and years of data collection where they actually do get enough data even for the edge cases in 5-10y?
Tesla has been promising (and selling) FSD since 2016. When do you stop giving them the benefit of the doubt and admit it's a vaporware scam?

Real autonomy is many orders of magnitude harder than a level 2 driver assist (which plenty of other car companies have as well). Tesla just happens to be the only one desperate and dishonest enough to pretend that actual full self-driving is just around the corner.

Have you looked at what competitors such as Cruise and Waymo are doing? They have an actual viable strategy for self-driving, vs. Tesla's pipedream of taking a bunch of shitty camera data and throwing it at a neural net. And they're way ahead of Tesla on every other dimension too: more robust hardware, diversity of sensors, data collection, HD mapping, testing, simulations, R&D budget, programming talent, etc.
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Old 07-18-2021, 03:32 PM   #14607
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Tesla has been promising (and selling) FSD since 2016. When do you stop giving them the benefit of the doubt and admit it's a vaporware scam?

Real autonomy is many orders of magnitude harder than a level 2 driver assist (which plenty of other car companies have as well). Tesla just happens to be the only one desperate and dishonest enough to pretend that actual full self-driving is just around the corner.

Have you looked at what competitors such as Cruise and Waymo are doing? They have an actual viable strategy for self-driving, vs. Tesla's pipedream of taking a bunch of shitty camera data and throwing it at a neural net. And they're way ahead of Tesla on every other dimension too: more robust hardware, diversity of sensors, data collection, HD mapping, testing, simulations, R&D budget, programming talent, etc.
Waymo has been testing in Phoenix/Chandler for 3 years, and has been "fully operational" (in one city with safety drivers) for about 1 year. They still can't make unprotected lefts and they still can't merge onto the freeway without the AI crapping the bed.

Waymo also has the problem of setting up not only service infrastructure for its autonomous taxis, but runs into the question of whether people will even buy it: arstechnica.
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Old 07-18-2021, 03:41 PM   #14608
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I've watched a couple interviews with George Hotz from comma.ai. He seems to be thinking that TSLA is on the right path and will probably be first but that they're not that far behind. He wasn't very optimistic about Cruise/Waymo.

FSD obv isn't just around the corner. Musk is dishonest and has no morals, however eventually things do get build and shipped. From what I've read and seen there seems to be quite a difference between AP 2016+ (I dont know when they first started using AP) compared to now. Vaporware to me means something that actually does not work at all. However, these cars are actually out there on the roads, in real life.
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Old 07-18-2021, 03:47 PM   #14609
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

^This is why you tell big lies. Idiots will partially credit them and hold the bright shining big lie as a future hope.

Musk has level 2 driver assist with a few level 3 features. He has zero FSD and is not on the path to FSD in the next 5 years. It's all lies and fraud.
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Old 07-18-2021, 04:45 PM   #14610
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

They might not ever attain FSD, but their government subsidy game is on-point:

https://www.thedrive.com/news/40975/...rs-115-million
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Old 07-18-2021, 07:04 PM   #14611
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
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George Hotz from comma.ai.
That guy is the Freddy Adu of self-driving. I remember when he shot to fame as this great prodigy who was going to solve self-driving, doing it with spare parts like Tony Stark. I think Elon wanted to hire him, but he turned him down and caused some beef. What has comma done since its inception a few years ago? Sold a few DIY kits to Honda owners so people can install their own adaptive cruise control and feel like they're hackers?
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Old 07-19-2021, 08:45 AM   #14612
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Waymo has been testing in Phoenix/Chandler for 3 years, and has been "fully operational" (in one city with safety drivers) for about 1 year. They still can't make unprotected lefts and they still can't merge onto the freeway without the AI crapping the bed.

Waymo also has the problem of setting up not only service infrastructure for its autonomous taxis, but runs into the question of whether people will even buy it: arstechnica.
it's driverless but in a city with almost no rain and no snow, all streets are a grid with no hills etc.
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Old 07-20-2021, 02:59 PM   #14613
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Oh look, another non-fraud company lightyears ahead of Tesla. Mobileye self-driving in NYC (vision only):


vs Tesla shitshow:
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesl...litches-2021-7

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it's driverless but in a city with almost no rain and no snow, all streets are a grid with no hills etc.
Tesla can't even handle parking lots and driveways.

Last edited by n00b590; 07-20-2021 at 03:08 PM.
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Old 07-20-2021, 04:22 PM   #14614
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Tesla can't even handle parking lots and driveways.


Waymo in a parking lot. You can see the other cars driving around it and passing it in the parking lot because the Waymo isn't moving.
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Old 07-21-2021, 04:14 AM   #14615
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Sorry, I should have been more precise--Tesla can't handle empty parking lots and driveways. But anyway, what's your point? Waymo struggles in a busy parking lot, therefore Tesla full self-driving isn't vaporware fraud?

Last edited by n00b590; 07-21-2021 at 04:19 AM.
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Old 07-22-2021, 04:23 PM   #14616
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Sorry, I should have been more precise--Tesla can't handle empty parking lots and driveways. But anyway, what's your point? Waymo struggles in a busy parking lot, therefore Tesla full self-driving isn't vaporware fraud?

Have Fun Staying Petroleum.
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Old 07-22-2021, 05:19 PM   #14617
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

FSD is vapor ware. The cars are not.
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Old 07-22-2021, 06:08 PM   #14618
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Have Fun Staying Petroleum.
Are you suggesting that the only two choices of cars to drive are a Tesla and and '72 Cadillac El Dorado?
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Old 07-22-2021, 06:10 PM   #14619
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by n00b590 View Post
Sorry, I should have been more precise--Tesla can't handle empty parking lots and driveways. But anyway, what's your point? Waymo struggles in a busy parking lot, therefore Tesla full self-driving isn't vaporware fraud?
I'm saying neither is ready for prime time.

You're the one saying that Waymo has a viable strategy and is way ahead of Tesla in every other dimension. Waymo can't even do the basics at the moment (unprotected lefts, highway merging, parking lots.)
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Old 07-25-2021, 02:41 PM   #14620
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Q3 should be good with Y model getting flooded with orders in China. However, I wouldn't touch option plays with a 10 foot pole.
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Old 07-26-2021, 11:37 AM   #14621
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The Solar City deposition read is amazing


@tslaq_snark did an amazing job if you want to read it
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Old 07-27-2021, 03:40 AM   #14622
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Are you suggesting that the only two choices of cars to drive are a Tesla and and '72 Cadillac El Dorado?

Ignoring fringe vegan options: hell f***ing yeah man!!!

It seems many people agree…

Tesla second-quarter profits top $1B even as it struggles to handle demand https://hn.premii.com/#/comments/27967528
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Old 07-27-2021, 06:51 AM   #14623
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

nice job, if global car demand stays that way for a year that's a cheap 150x earnings for a car company.

and only 10 million new shares this quarter. just going to take 6 billion and change to buy those back.
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Old 07-29-2021, 12:21 AM   #14624
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

In general computers are not great at functioning in an analog environment. It is only when people accept the new digital world that computers excel.

FSD will almost certainly never succeed in a 3D analog environment when there simply are far too many permutations to consider. When digital sensors are installed in roads, along with full featured V2V to eliminate traffic bottlenecks along with digital intersection signaling FSD will have a good chance at succeeding. But at that point, analog driving will likely cease to exist because human senses will no longer be useful to drive a car at the same efficiency as a digital FSD.
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Old 07-29-2021, 01:01 PM   #14625
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I always felt like FSD would only work if all other cars are FSD

That way, computers can predict other computers

Perhaps a revamp of all infrastructure to make that easier is necessary

Computers can't predict human elements of driving. One day the car goes right, another day it goes left. No way to predict such things as state of mind, driver competence, instinct, drunk or high drivers? How about malfunctions?

I also don't understand why people think buying a Tesla is an investment for the future should FSD arrive...Your car will be old and obsolete in a matter of years and nobody is going to care you have a robotaxi when...everyone else does too
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