Obviously I'm not asking with reference to any kind of forward-looking fundamental analysis. At the moment the company is cash-flow positive. What I'm asking about is the all-time outflows vs all-time inflows.

Probably a year away(if we ignore interest and inflation). Q3 not included here but the rest:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/tesl...s-q2-2021.html

Nice to see that the bear thesis is still going strong even above $1T. One thing is sure, Tesla will always be overvalued and Elon will always be a liar. Even at 20M vehicles/year and $100B/year profit in 2030 the bear case will be as strong as ever.

I’m out of here for a while again, but looking forward to seeing what cracks will be showing in a few years! Stay strong bears!

just a thought:

a time where two dog-coins, explicitly created to not serve any purpose, are racing each other to a $50b market cap, is maybe not the best time, to use market cap as only validation that one's investment thesis has a fundamental backing.

enjoy the mania, but don't get caught holding the bag.

We did guesstimate valuations in 2017:

i'm not arguing that. i know what i said.

if, in a hypothetical world, there was no market full of novice investors and passives index funds to sell the shares to and the only way to get a return were dividends or the company buying back it's own stock with profits, i still wouldn't pay $100 for a share.

there might be such a situation one day. because that's usually kind of what happens in a crash.

maybe 20x in 2 years, is a good time to take some of the table, just saying. board of directors sold about a billion last week.

One stock to rule us all.



Has to have been this

The stock gained 120 billion in market cap just today.

But, why? I haven't been following the stock market at all so legit question.

At what point do they have to produce something of tangible value besides a car before the market starts to question their ability to produce anything of tangible value besides a car?

Is there anyone left from a year ago still shorting Tesla?

Never. Musk is the most successful con man of all time, and I'm waiting for him to tweet his plans for his perpetual motion machine

Every used car sales man, door to door hack, and Nigerian boiler room should have his poster up on their wall. His ability to increase his wealth with promises and fairy dust is beyond amazing. If the market ever questions tesla then he will simply move onto the next grand scheme

Today the 'rationale' was that they are allowing other EVs to use their charging network in Holland. I would love to see the DCF calc on that one to justify the 120bil move today

Interesting hypothetical world, I assume there still are some semi-rational traders in it.

Last quarter Tesla did $1.9/share. I would guesstimate that Q4 will be around $3/share. So already they are around $12/year. With some ramp and deferred revenue for next year I expect we are gonna see around $20 for 2022.

5 P/E_t0:t+1year seems pretty cheap to me. What other investment have you found that are better?

keeping the sharecount steady would have eaten up all their earnings last quarter and then some, even at $100.

also, this happened:



it's a really bizarre world, where the ceo agrees with sceptics on the actual economics of the company yet shareholders think it's worth like $300b more now.

Tesla could make Elon Musk world's first trillionaire by the end of 2022.

it could technically make him a trillionaire today if someone pays $5000 for a share once.

I talked to one buddy who is a Tesla diehard and his new buzz is all about this.



There is a confidence that Tesla will play a dominant role in AI generally and not just in self driving tech. That their AI expertise will be a market force.

And i am not knocking him as he has made a ton of money from Tesla as he first started buying at $50 and has been buying all the way up whenever he has discretionary dollars.

Phase 1 - steal underpants

I read that tweet as Elon saying (again) that 'the Hertz deal may not close but it not closing should not cause our stock to fall as we don't need it'.

As a betting man I would now bet on the Hertz deal falling apart. Elon will ride with the slimmest or potential positive outcomes and make statements as if that is then going to happen so him hedging here is very insightful.

Him trying to arm his accolades in advance to say 'it does not matter' if/when the deal falls apart is pretty tactically smart.

well... the deal failing or not literally does not matter if you trust company lore.

everyone who listened to official company statements (apparently not most TSLA "investors") should have known that and not bought up the stock like crazy.

the company statement has always been, that they are supply and not demand limited. that's what he said time and time again and also now.

Very few Tesla investors know a damn thing about the fundamentals. Just read comments on other forums.

But that is to their benefit as fundamentals haven't mattered for 2 years

Its all a bet on intangibles and there is a massive divide on the intangibles being fraud vs genius. I dunno, probably should have had leaps a year and a half ago and be retired by now. I don't see a middle ground though. Either Tesla becomes our corporate overlords or this ends poorly for literally everyone.

I think even the Tesla die hards admit that Tesla needs the equivalent of multiple grand slam homeruns in more than one business sector for them to have earnings catch up to the current bubble, right? That is the 'convergence' Cathy Woods always speaks of with 'many wins' feeding in to one another.

So how many sectors beyond just 'Auto sales' do we estimate Tesla requires a Grand Slam or at least home run in to justify their current price.

They have just under 60 billion between long-term debt and equity per their latest report. They've generated a lot more than that in revenues.

Rational & calculated investing is losing ground to irrational, hype & buzzword investing. I wonder if it's here to stay or if there will be a massive correction at some point. TBH I think it is here to stay, and there will continue to be lots of money to be made incorporating that mindset.

The issue with Tesla is that even if you were aware of that 2 years ago, you probably would have thought "it can't go up much more, the valuation is already at max hype". Yet here we are now. Where are we going? Is it going to eventually be worth more than Alphabet, whose bottom line is bigger than Tesla's topline and have a (imo) better track record with R&D and innovation?

I guess we'll find out.

His tweet also doesn't make much sense. I can understand you might not want to go to the crazy discounts some of the world's largest suppliers offer on deals like this, but selling 100k cars to Hertz vs selling 100k cars to 100k individuals is going to look pretty different from a cost & organizational perspective. There's a reason why the large suppliers offer crazy discounts, and it should translate in a non-crazy discount being massively beneficial to Tesla.

Maybe that is in line with what they are doing but then his tweet makes even less sense.

I agree he probably just wants to ride the high of the news and then not have any low when the deal falls through.

It's going to sound crazy to many people but I believe that Tesla has the completely wrong strategy for how its cars will be charged by customers. I think the right way to do it is to use a smaller battery and then have slots on both sides of the car for disk batteries with handles on them that can be switched out at gas stations. It doesn't make sense to make gas stations worthless when they are on the best possible real estate. Plus it makes sense to create a revenue stream for charging.

if anybody wonders why the stock trades at infinity: this give you an idea.

i mean, everything the company ever said would tell you that a 100.000 car order from anybody would not matter because they are supposedly limited by how fast they can build them.
the ceo is right there on twitter yesterday telling you the exact same thing. the guy even has legal liability to not lie about stuff like that, being a public company ceo and such.

yet, here we are, reading the tea leaves and interpreting for why this is actually the greatest news ever.