grizy that to me is one of those areas of 'convergence' that many are just too dumb, in their limited analytical skills to understand.

It is fine if you don't want to make that bet and tie it to Tesla. I am not making that bet.

But others certainly can make that bet.

To me, the Battery play over all is a much bigger bet or play than the electric car one although the electric car one may be a tipping point the battery play needs to get to critical mass.

The potential of a Distributed Energy Grid as per the recent Texas example means arguably that very expensive localized upgrades will not be the way to go if most homes can be incentivized to have a battery wall in their garage that can store hours or a day or more, rationed energy for those critical time usage.

Instead of the gov't giving those utilities huge sums of tax payer money to upgrade (such as he Biden Infrastructure plan is proposing to do now), give tax credits to home builders to offset the cost of purchase and installation of an energy wall in every new build. Just defacto, put it in. And give retrofit credits to current home owners.

Plug that all into a smart grid where areas not being impacted by temporary outages can sell their stored power back to the utility for re-distribution elsewhere and also where the utilities can allow for selective shut downs in areas where demand is surging and allow people to access their stored power.

Now a dumb person would try to counter what I say by saying how likely or not they think this would be to happen. But that is why they are dumb. Others who are not them are allowed to make that big bet and gamble a way they would not. That is the heart of betting on stocks and Longs V Shorts. They are making very different bets on the same info.

So the idea that people who have made tons of money already on Tesla are just suckers using results based thinking just shows the narrowness and lack of analytical skills of those who would say that.

Thinking solar cells and power walls would have prevented the Texas energy fiasco may possibly be the dumbest thing in this thread

Ah yes, the battery argument. Bringing up old talking points from like 8 months ago that were already ripped to shreds.

QP, you probably didn't read the thread then, but battery day was supposed to be a big reveal where Tesla was going to corner the battery market and that was going to be the turning point where they pivot from car->SW->batter company, sealing their tri-force of power.

It turned out it was all a bunch of misinformation and misleading comments from Musk, once again, and literally nothing has come of that since.

Good job bringing up old debunked points as some new earth shattering revelation that others "just don't get"

What you don't seem to get is that Tesla red-lines their packs to get a little extra juice at the cost of safety and longevity. That is the only difference between their batteries and anyone elses. The battery tech isn't theirs. If there is a big breakthrough in battery tech, Tesla won't capture that through any definable competitive advantage.

BATTERY DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hypnotizing power
Crushing all that cower
Battery is here to stay

https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/arti...k#!divAbstract

I don’t understand what the proposed bet is but it’s worth posting a paper on geophysical limits of solar and wind generation even with a continental scale distributed grid.

Even with a distributed continental grid, a fully solar/wind grid would require literally hundreds of millions of tons of batteries. Even in steady state, we are probably talking about tens of tons of batteries that need to be recycled/thrown away. We can do a lot better by getting baseload from nuclear and having peaked natural gas plants on standby.

Yeah batteries are beyond stupid for things that aren't mobile or ultra-niche off grid stuff. Massive environmental damage and waste for no good reason. Musk is one of the greatest environmental vandals on the planet, and it's not close.

Ya i have never seen any of these arguments so feel free to link me to any as I like to read differing views.

My point has nothing to do with Tesla specifically. I have no clue what their Battery Day means as i have never heard of it and my specific point has nothing to do with that.

My point is not about Tesla delivering on any one or more of their core tangential technologies but rather on any investors ability to bet, GAMBLE, on them hitting on one or more that they think will justify their valuations.

Again, read my prior posts about how many of you seem to think the only purpose to speculating is in actual technology realization when that is not the case.

I Understand how limited you are in your knowledge as a investor if you think that is all that matters.

No one is wrong to bet on a Founder with no company today and saying 'invest in my seed round and I will figure it and make us Billions'.

That some of you seem to think you would use results based thinking and if he fails say 'see his airy promises came to nothing thus you were stupid to gamble and bet' just shows how limited so many of you are.



Edit : @applesauce. I did not say "prevent" so take the strawman sh*t elsewhere please. It could be part of a broader solution though instead of investing all the money in large singular utilities that when they have catastrophic failures are so much harder to alleviate. Large scale battery wall adoption alleviate the stresses on the grids at key times. Doing that makes most other issues more easily managed.

How about this then: thinking an energy grid dependent on solar cells and power walls would not have made the Texas energy fiasco worse is possibly the dumbest thing in this thread.

TSLA going back to $900. I bought the dip

Q1 numbers are out https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/t...ion-deliveries

whats your thesis on this pls?

184k deliveries wow I'm impressed

gg puts lol. 900 inc indeed

I knew Tesla was going to finally live up to its E-valuation one day.

Yeah you are stuffing strawman, so how about that.

"Dependent" does not belong in this conversation. Any more than having a surge protector for your computer is the dependent factor in computer safety.

It can however be a significant factor in certain situations such as offsetting peek demand needs caused by any of many factors.

In such cataclysmic failures such as Texas saw due to improper weatherization of the grid, surely you must address that as well. But for individuals having their own power to draw on would certainly offset much of that initial pain they felt being dropped into the dark and cold and it would have helped alleviate surge spikes that caused secondary problems within the grid.

In lesser situations that often result in brown outs due to selective shut downs of areas of the grid due to things like air conditioning spikes in the summer, battery walls could and would absolutely alleviate the issue of brown outs.

A smart grid would allow for the utility to instead rotate people to using their own stored power for hours and to also draw energy from the battery walls in areas that were not being impacted, and thus that stored energy was not needed and instead direct to the areas that needed that excess power.

Say what you will about TSLA, they always have juicy premiums.

It depends on how much oversupply of power is available off peak to charge battery backup systems. During peak usage such as August, there is typically not a lot of excess power supply during off peak hours. Basically you are trying to squeeze power usage into the power supply curve, and there are limits to that.

And what happened in February was traditional power sources such as nat gas unable to make up for the losses of solar/wind. So backup systems would likely help only for a day, as backup systems are typically designed to run for a short period of time.

"Smart grid" systems are already in place to prioritize power supply based on consumers' choice, that is you can choose a lower rate but you will get blacked out more frequently than others who pay a higher rate. If you have backup power you would obviously choose the cheaper plan.

Interesting read how Tesla mad an accounting change a year or so ago to "appreciate" leases instead of "depreciating" them. This was rationalized on vehicle appreciation due to improved FSD software and Robotaxis, which are still vapor ATM.

Can't wait to see if the cybertruck is vapor ware

My TSLA obsessed friend just ordered one as he will "rent it out as robo-taxi to pay it back in one year"

No one is claiming it is a panacea. It would be part of an over all plan.

And battery walls in a smart system can be set to recharge at night hours when consumption is way down, or the better answer is a small rooftop solar array included in the gov't credit that is dedicated to pumping power into the batteries.

The main problem generally in the grid is demand surges trying to be met leading to shutdowns or collapses in the system that can be long term.

Having the distributed smart power grid, backed up by even a few hours of stored energy would allow a smart grid to completely avoid surge spikes. A automated cascade program, rotates on and off entire sections of the grid when a surge hits a trigger limit. And then slowly over a few hours each section is brought back onto the main grid, but with no surge impact. It is gradual.

Right now Texas is asking for taxpayer money to shore up private companies that end up being single points of failure and always vulnerable to surges and extreme events.

I am saying put SOME resources to this would be smart and done without any direct cash outlays, just credits to home builders and renovators.

Musk startup: monkey with implanted brain chips playing video games. Also was reading somehwere his partner said they could make jurassic park if they wanted to. Can make jurassic park and monkeys play games but can't produce promised robo taxis... seems legit


https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...key-video-game

DID U GUYZ SEE THE TUNNEL UNDER THE VEGAS CONVENTION CENTER!? IT'S AMAZING, IT EVEN HAS DISCO LIGHTS AND IT ONLY COST $53mILLIONS REDUCING AN 8 MINUTE WALK TO A 3 MINUTE CAR RIDE!!!! TSLA gonna moon GUYS

Chamath said Elin can build tunnels for 1m a mile when the competitors can’t do it for less than 24m. That is pretty impressive assuming chamath knows what he’s talking about.