How is it a positive? The bars are cumulative.

As the number of rivals have increased that much you would think it would affect their market share at least a little bit no?

Looking at that graph you would think they'd be going out of business any day now with all that competition.

Don't get me wrong I still think they're overvalued. I currently have $20k worth of puts.

But just putting up a graph saying there are more competitors entering the market doesn't really mean much by itself.

How I see it, Tesla is to EV as Apple is to phone. They both focus on simplicity and a strong user fanbase.

Was anybody watching the tape Friday when TSLA was falling. Each 10s price ($600.00, $590.00, ...) was getting huge support. The tape would freeze for 5 seconds or so before price would change. Note the low was $540.00, which showed the support.

You'd think people would be a bit more random in their order prices. Maybe it was just 1 whale, who knows.

TSLA & AAPL both have their rabid fan bases....but there are some pretty significant differences between the two.

1). AAPL has been profitable (and wildly so) for quite a while now. I think their net margin on sales is close to 20%. That is an almost unheard of profitability level, especially for a company that does retail & computer hardware. So AAPL has a massive cash balance, has been paying out dividends for a long time now. They have massive retained earnings which can be used for expansion without diluting shareholders.

TSLA in comparison has not really ever made much of a profit from manufacturing. Some people argue that all/almost all of their earnings come from selling environmental credits and NOTHING from manufacturing. Compare TSLA to other car companies...and competitors have profit margins in the low single digits (when they make money). Now TSLA is a premium name and very well might be different than their competitors....but I can't see ANY reasonable circumstance where TSLA is netting 20% on sales.

Even with AAPL's superior margins & business model, AAPL has valuation metrics WAY lower than TSLA does (even after it's recent decline).

Eventually TSLA is not going to be a small, unknown growth company. When they graduate to the "big boy" leagues, they are going to have to start making money and will get "graded" on their sales, cash flow, and earnings.

TSLA is currently priced for a company that is many, Many, MANY times their current level of sales & profitability. Even if it realistic that TSLA grows quite a bit, they are still "over valued".

Finally, I suspect a LOT of TSLA "investors" simply have no idea about valuation metrics....and I mean nothing. So they may get a rude awakening?

B). It is not clear to me that TSLA & cars are as tied into consumers as AAPL is with their computers, operating system, iPhones & iMusic & App store. Sure, TSLA is likely to have better U/I than most/all of their competitors, but does that really lock down the consumer? I hear Porsche's new electric car is pretty good, really good....will TSLA owner be reluctant to purchase that Porsche because it is not a TSLA?

TSLA may also be more of a "luxury" brand than AAPL is. A lot of people like to drive TSLA to "virtue signal" & stand apart to others...If TSLA does 2X, 3X, 5X their current level of sales...then that is going to dilute their brand reputation if every 4th house has a TSLA car?

Finally, if the stock market gets wild & woolly and goes into a contraction, some stocks are going to get really hammered hard. Could TSLA be one of those?

Yeah pretty much agree with all that.

Apple has done an amazing job of getting users hooked. After using apple phones for years, its not possible to even consider other brands unless they were similar quality and I would say 50% cheaper would be the number that gets me to switch. When getting a new phone, I don't even consider what other options are at the moment. Maybe there are really good phones for cheap but I don't care to find out.

I have bought a few new vehicles in the past few years and with them, its always what the comparable specs are and it always comes down to price. I know its anecdotal but I imagine with big ticket items, brand loyalty isn't as important.

The big increases are estimates for late '20 and for '21. Give it a little time.

List of contrasts between apple and Tesla is waaay longer than list of comparisons.

But at the discussion of brand loyalty:

Apple has a big switching cost to move to another brand - many people will never buy anything non iphone because all of their info/pics/apps/etc moves from old phone to new phone seamlessly. There is also a learning curve to an operating system.

Cars have little switching cost - although I don’t know if cost of the home charging setup is expensive (?). However, brand loyalty and switching cost/effort is not near as high in automobiles as it is for phones platforms.

~~

Tesla is associated heavily (if not equated) with EV and the perceived virtues of EV - while [any other automaker] is not because of their legacy vehicles offerings. So the signaling value that a Tesla customer gets by “driving a Tesla” is much higher for Tesla than trying to explain you drive an electric Ford Mustang. That is a real value and a big plus for the brand within the growing EV field.

As more and more EV offerings come along, Tesla will still stand out because of that strong association. (FYI - I don’t give a **** about it, but many many Tesla customers love to signal that they are a Tesla customer and will be loyal customers because of that)
~~

However, given the choice - I would rather offer a product with a high switching cost than just brand perception - because the perception can change.

Legacy auto makers should mostly be launching EVs under new brands - except for something like the mustang where mustang brings a lot of value itself.

Well your $10 price target for 2025 is different from "forever." (And I realize that target was likely (hopefully) exaggeration on your part.)

I don't disagree with much of your response, but your arguments are essentially the same ones we've been posting in this thread for five years. And what I think I've learned that you apparently haven't is that the cult is more moneyed and more powerful than one would expect for a car company. (Of course, to Tesla acolytes, it's not just a car company, and therefore car-company valuations don't matter. It's an energy company, energy storage company, robo-taxi company, clean tech disruptive exponential AI blockchain company.)

I'm not saying the stock is a good buy at these levels, but I would caution against people using n00b-style fundamental analysis on a stock that trades in a fantasy world. This fantasy world is sustained by wealthy tech enthusiasts who will continue buying stock every month no matter the price, because Elon is Tony Stark, and they know that they're doing their part to change the world.

And DTEJD, your points are reasonable and all, but you say nothing that hasn't been posted countless times in this thread over the years.

AAPL is every bit the luxury brand that TSLA is. Saturation hasn't diluted AAPl's brand. There's no reason to believe it'll hurt TSLA's.

Oh, I’m well aware of how powerful the cult is. But the cult has been empowered by a soaring stock price and a great narrative to rally around. The past few weeks have shown the price could blow at any moment, and the narrative is going to start looking a lot shakier when VW sells more EVs than Tesla next year, more competition comes out with equal/better specs, other companies ship level 3/4 autonomy while FSD remains vaporware, etc. Public opinion can turn on a dime—Musk will go from international superstar to hated villain almost overnight. Go read The Match King (Ivan Krueger) or Millionaire (John Law).

It already has though. The Model S is no longer the status symbol it once was.

Hey all:

Think about this...It is easy to have a "cult" following when your stock pretty much always goes up. That has certainly been the case with TSLA.

TSLA is now at an inflection point. It has had an incredible run, and is now finally starting to back off in a serious way. The other day, it was down like 85 points at it's low! Being down 85 points is going to SERIOUSLY test a lot of hodler's of the stock.

Now, maybe this is all a temporary blip in the market, and in a week or two, things will come back to "normal".

At some point, TSLA, and every other stock is going to be tested/valued on fundamentals. There is simply no other way. TSLA has had an incredible run, with 10+ years of it being evaluated on it's story, not it's fundamentals. At some point, tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, 3 years, it is going to change/flip.

I am not yet sure where the market will go...but I think there a real possibility that things get crazy and out of control. That the Fed loses control of interest rates and inflation. IF that happens, TSLA is going to get flattened. Absolutely destroyed. Of course, that will happen to almost everything.

There is going to be at least $1.9TT spent in the latest stimulus bill. This is real money. At some point, there is going to be inflation. Heck, I see lots of indications that inflation is already here, but I think it will accelerate.

Going to be interesting for sure!

The only catch is that inflation is good for stocks because stocks are priced in dollars and generate their revenue and profit in dollars. If a coke costs twice as much then Coke is making 2x as much revenue in dollars.

the fsd beta now on the street will never be more than level 2.
i mean, everybody who follows the tech knew that, but nice to have it confirmed by tesla to the california dmv.

Pretty crazy world we live that a massive deliberate obvious lie ("Fully self driving feature complete in 2019"; "1 million robotaxis on the road in 2020") from a proven charlatan runs his company's value up to nearly a trillion dollars because an ocean of idiots believe it's possible.

It is my understanding that buying long term puts on TSLA is very +ev to hedge agaisnt an interest rates hike. Will probably wait after the stimulus to buy some. I would be very surprised to see rates hike mid march, so I think I have some room to evaluate this further. If somebody finds a better way do tell!

This was a better idea 2 weeks ago.

I'm a lucky man, I'll get the chance to do it again

Wow, it was great to hear the takes on Apple and Tesla in the thread. I think I timed my put perfectly. I may be lucky at the timing, but I believe my reasoning was sound. I’m not very well versed with business sense in general. I look a lot of stuff up, but there is a lot of stuff I don’t even know how to look up because I didn’t even know it existed. For instance, the audiobook “The Intelligent Investor” talks about preferred stock and common stock. I never even knew there was a such thing as preferred stock.

As far as inflation goes, the book says REITs and TIPs perform well against it. I’m stockpiling on REITs before I purchase a rental property, while not selling any S&P 500 just incase I’m ******ed and don’t know it.

I think it's cute the relationship you have with your put. I will be sorry when you have to sell him. Also on real estate, I have looked heavily in to buying rentals or investing in the markets, real estate just doesn't seem worth it. Maybe if house prices weren't so unaffordable where I am in the Pacific Northwest, I guess it depends on the area. I'm just seeing so many horror stories of people having to spend all their free time responding to complaints and handy man work, or you end up losing a lot of the upside to a property manager which most of them are crap (I deal with a lot of these companies in my business)

Then there is always the risk of a bad tenant wiping out a year or more of income and the risk of getting a dud house that needs huge unexpected renovations. Evictions are extremely difficult where I am in Canada as well. Doesn't help that you can only get just enough rent to cover a 80% mortgage on the average home. I have heard of markets that actually can get positive cash flow but doesn't seem likely these days.

Yeah, I’ve read a lot about tenant horror stories. If I can’t find a house that can cash flow good then I’ll just leave that money in the VNQ. I do believe when inflation happens rental properties will do very well. Also, if interest rates rise housing prices will go down, which isn’t good, but I think houses bought before rising rates will cash flow even better. I have a real estate license so my plan is to call a bunch of expireds in the price range I want and give low ball offers. Might be a waste of time, but I could get a good deal.

My relationship with my Tesla put is dearly. It is my first put ever so I really hope it does well at expiration. I could see Tesla shoot up to $1200 or some other random number which would be sad, but Elon did purchase 1.5 billion bitcoin. Perhaps I have accidentally hedged myself against the price of bitcoin which wouldn’t be such a bad thing.

You know you don't have to hold it until expiration. Unless you believe it will unwind all the way until the summer, I guess that is the big payoff you are risking your current gains for.

Unlike Tesla, Apple is an affordable status symbol and is popular as a business phone.
And once you have it, the are multiple upsell opportunities, 1st and 3rd party products. Tesla only has the FSD afaik.