Looks like it's eyeing the 400s next week.

Don't we get this feeling every time the market corrects?

as of last week, now touching 40%

Wonder how many TSLA early retiree's are brushing up their Linkedin lol?? Buddy who retired at 38 with three kids on $1.2Million in stock and 2023 LEAPS is down around $400k so far.....yesterday he used up all his free cash to buy more around $630 per share. Yikes

That's pretty insane. But how do you retire w/ $1.2 million in stocks when you have 3 kids?

Especially at 38 years old. How long did he expect that $1.2 mil to last a family of 5??

$1.2 million in Tesla stock should be about $1.2 billion once they get a few bugs worked out on that whole robo-taxi thing.

Pretty sure when you run it up that fast you expect to keep running it up

Yep they all say wait until 2030 as they will have billions in FSD revenue and sell 20million EV's per year + insurance + solar + who knows what else and will be largest company by market cap

You forgot about spaceships, the Moon, Mars, and the asteroid belt. Although I think the asteroid belt mining will be hard to really get going before 2030. Once TSLA is spread throughout the solar system, THEN they will start to raise prices and really rake the cash in!

At the same time let's not get too carried away on the other side. Some people act like it's some pie in the sky penny stock company with nothing but a 3D rendering.

Could it be that it's somewhere in the middle?

You can live off $1.2 million if your frugal/single. With 3 kids and a spouse it would be harder to do.

Something to keep in mind. I’ve heard that car companies are most profitable towards the last quarter. So when quarter 1 comes out around April 28, it could act as a catalyst and things could really go badly. Elon might sell his bitcoin beforehand to create earnings though and it could rally. It will be a fun ride.

$401 is somewhere in the middle. Elon should look into Tesla options. They have worked for others in the past. Could give them a nice earnings without having to stress about car sales, fsd, Bitcoin etc

I think this is reasonable though not sure if you are being sarcastic. The people that say stuff like, "How can they be worth more than Ford when they only make X amount of cars per year?". Sound just as silly as the ones that say stuff like "Mars hasn't been priced in yet.".

Does Tesla have patents that will prevent other car companies from being able to do the same thing?

Hey all:

WOW, could it be that TSLA is starting to unravel quickly?

At one point today, TSLA was down almost 85 points! The low was about $540/share. It closed at $597, so it was only down 24 points at the end.

These are some pretty wild swings...

This was on a day where the DJIA & S&P were up huge.

What happens if the market has a BIG down day? Could TSLA be down 100 points in a day?

If TSLA has a 100 point down day, will that break the will of the HODLers? Will the easy money crowd move on to different pastures? If the easy money crowd moves on, will TSLA have to be valued on sales, cash flow, earnings, dividends?

I sense we are at a turning point for the market, and for a bunch of different stocks.

That's not a great argument. That's like saying does Wal Mart have a patent on stores that will prevent other stores from doing the same thing?

It was actually a question more so than an argument because I don’t know if they do. I think it could be relevant though because companies like GM and Toyota have more factories and resources. If they start copying Tesla I believe they’ll come out ahead- or at least preventing Tesla from having a monopoly on the car industry. If Tesla has certain patents on tech stuff it could prevent them from closing the gap.

I think they have a lot, but they're not leveraging that to try to block out the competition. Actually the opposite.

I do think they will have an advantage over other companies when the quality of software and method of updates become a bigger thing in the cars.

I could totally see companies like GM and Ford bumbling that up pretty good.

I'm not a Tesla moon boi, but this notion that they will go bankrupt anytime now I think is a stretch. I think in the long run they will definitely remain a prominent player in the EV space and that's worth something. Perhaps not their current valuation, but it's definitely not $10 either. Not sure why people get so worked up over this company though. It's like one of the most polarizing things.

You could start here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_Tesla

Every Tesla on the road right now is a massive liability for them. Their engineering and quality control are a joke, and on top of that they've cut their warranty reserves significantly. We have multiple credible reports of sudden unintended acceleration, suspension failures, battery fires, Autopilot still hitting parked emergency vehicles, etc. At some point even the true believers will get fed up with all the FSD lies, so that's another huge class-action lawsuit waiting to happen. Probably not going bankrupt anytime soon, you're right about that, but $10 sounds pretty good for a 2025 target.

Thanks, interesting read. I guess we'll see. Where I live they're still selling out like hot cakes. If the battery fires and all that are as rampant as you make it seem, they sure are doing a good job of keeping it quiet. I see more and more of them on the road everyday it seems.

I agree. This is a decent bull thesis. Personally, I don't really like it, but it seems the auto market is heading towards electric power trains and ipads on every dashboard. This places a greater emphasis on software development. I don't think the legacy players like Ford and Toyota have placed a high priority on their software quality and it could hurt them when this market shift occurs.

This shift could also leave the door open for someone like Apple to become a big player if they choose.

That said, I still think this is unlikely to play out in a way that makes Tesla a buy at these prices. Every fundamental thing we know about Tesla today was also true last year. Not sure what has changed to drive a 5-10x price increase. They were bubbly before the pandemic last year too.

in beijing i see at least 10 teslas everytime i walk a few blocks, i'm downtown though, maybe saw 4x a week out in the burbs

of course i'll see thousands of audis though - so based on rr logic that means we should all be pumping vw?

I think you really underestimate the cult. All the stuff about QC and battery fires and autopilot deaths has been a constant for years now. And if you think a lawsuit would have an impact on the stock, allow me to refer you to all the past lawsuits. The cult has reached critical mass and is self-sustaining. It extends into government now; its kid is old enough to be gifted a Tesla for graduation; it's contributed enough money that TSLA could keep the charade going till 2030 without needing to sell another car. Good luck trying to buy a share at $10 in 2025 when Tesla's India factory is up and running and its cars are getting updates from Starlink.

Disagree. The cult is rabid, but ultimately not big enough to keep them propped up forever. And a declining stock price is enough to make even the most loyal cult members question their faith. Fart noises and fast acceleration don't translate to the mass-market, which is much more price- and quality-sensitive than early adopters. Definitely seeing signs of market saturation in a lot of places. Sales have already plateaued in the U.S. and Europe, and that's with numerous price cuts and the Model Y launch:





Real competition has finally arrived, and is just getting started:



Even the cult seems to be growing more skeptical of the FSD lies lately, and more vocal about the shitshow that is Tesla's service department. FSD take rate has come way down:



The only thing keeping the growth narrative alive at this point is China, and that is showing signs of fizzling out too. There's been much stronger backlash from Chinese consumers and regulators over all the issues that the cult has all too happily forgiven elsewhere. A cheaper Model 2 should buy them some more time and more profitless growth, but won't fundamentally turn things around. India does not have the same potential to be a large market for Tesla.

Agree about India. Though the graph showing number of new EV launches I think actually shows a positive for TSLA at this point.