weak pump by Musk. expect more from him when TSLA goes below 600

From Matt Levine's blog the other day (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...e-a-gamble-too):

(T)here is an estimate that Tesla is “on a trajectory to make more from its Bitcoin investments than profits from selling its EV (electric vehicle) cars in all of 2020.”

I sometimes make fun of Elon Musk for being so easily distracted from his actual business of making and selling cars, but to be fair to him, the distractions available to him are pretty distracting. It is hard to build good cars and sell them for more than it costs to make them; it is relatively easy, for Musk, to make a lot of money by tweeting about financial assets.

Honestly it is impressive that Musk doesn’t devote more of his time to manipulating stock and cryptocurrency prices on Twitter. I suppose the relative scarcity of Musk’s approval is what makes it so valuable.

As Dogecoin is not a security does SEC have any kind of case there?
I mean, what next, SEC investigating Kanye West for a tweet about vintage Yeezys?

Is Kanye West a CEO and major shareholder of one of the most valuable SP500 companies whose opinions tend to move markets?

His opinion definitely moves the sneakers resale market (probably bigger than Dogecoin market) and he is involved with sneakers companies.
I mean, there are markets for many things and all kind of public opinions from well known people move them. Is there legally something special about Dogecoin that makes SEC interested in it?

Dogecoin is a cryptocurrency, which has had major efforts levied to regulate it and provide some level of oversight and control

Sneaker resale isn't really comparable

If they are public and his comments are manipulative, he too should be looked at.

The thing with the public markets is they can be manipulated in real time and cause devastating consequences for someone who makes rash decisions. Nobody cares about someone who invests in sneakers as a hobby, Pokemon cards can be pumped up but people buying them know they aren't protected and can take that in to consideration. Someone tweets about sneakers and you aren't going to go on eBay and find that 50,000 listings for shoes have all tripled their price.

Is there any specific law/regulation that makes them different though?
Honest question. I was under the impression there isn't anything specific yet.

Well, this is more or less what actually happens! It's not 50000 listings as there usually aren't as many when it comes to lucrative deals but still, the price can easily jump 2x-x3 if a celebrity makes an appearance in them or comments on them.
(source: I know two sneakers traders, you can look at some price action by googling sneakers exchange, some of those things go for 10+k USD).

My point is that it's a lucrative market, with active exchanges in operation, that can very easily be manipulated and yet SEC aren't after that. Is there anything specific about Dogecoin legally that makes it different?

People on the news pitch stocks all the time. The fact that someone makes a tweet about it, I don't think legally it makes sense to go after them, because that could be a dangerous line to draw especially since it isn't financial advice. Maybe if he told his followers "Hey guys, you should all buy Dogecoin right now. It will 20x in 10 days!" that could be bad. Tweeting about his Toddler being a Hodler in Doge isn't quite the same. I'm not saying I agree with his actions to post a bunch about Dogecoin, because he knows it is affecting the price and is probably making money off it, but at the same time people should learn not to invest in things just because a figure head mentions it or told them to.

Hey all:

Here is a crazy that just popped into my head!

What effect is rising interest rates going to have on some companies. In particular, companies that have gone up in price TREMENDOUSLY and are not making any money OR are making very little?

If interest rates go up, that will perhaps draw in more capital and act as a brake on speculative excesses? Interest rates at 4% or 5%? Heck, just put the money in a MMA...

Companies are also probably going to have produce more profit...at zero percent or 1% interest rates, why not take a flyer? Maybe it will work? Better than getting nothing? At 5% interest rates, you've got a real reason to save? So maybe speculative companies with triple digit P/E ratios now have to have P/E ratios of 20, 25, 30?

I don't know...just something that was I kicking around!

Totally normal response to an article (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...-earth/618133/) criticizing your totally-not-a-cult leader:

Seems like marketing for a not very good story

Perhaps I'm a terrible person but seeing all these Youtube "experts" who have been pumping TSLA non stop loosing their minds due to "unfair price movement" in TSLA and other ****-co's is somewhat satisfying. NNDM, BNGO, PLUG, WKHS, LMD, the list goes on and on. Companies that will never turn a profit (some pre revenue lol) and have been relying on share issuance to stay afloat.

4.5 bagger on weekly Tesla 600 puts

I’m feeling really good about my Tesla Put right now. Diamond hands until $50. I may chicken out at $60. Hopping it gets there. I really wanted to put additional money on puts, but Tesla had already dropped so much that I became less confident in my position with having more at stake.

Even though I’m confident Tesla is in a bubble, I’m not as confident about when it will pop so I think the correct strategy is to bet small amounts in 6 month periods far OTM in order to remain solvent.

Someone said the floor is $401. What did you pay for your put? What strike and expiry?

The floor is actually $85.

$1280 for July 16 at $400 strike price.

I’ve been thinking about an interesting overall market strategy. Instead of selling SPY, VOO, or whatever index/stock in anticipation of a market crash (that might not even happen) and paying capital gains, I can place long shot put options on the most bubbly stocks. This way, if the market crashes I collect a bunch of money and can pile it into the index funds while it is cheap. Another caveat to this is I can write it off as a loss on my taxes if it fails, making my puts essentially free. In my situation it actually isn’t free because I’ve already sold Kraft Heinz at a loss. Still though. It is a cool idea for future years.

I was unable to invest money when the market tanked in March of 2020 because I didn’t have much cash on hand. Had I been using the strategy above I may have made quite a bit.

Godson, you have no idea what you're doing and should really not be trading options. There are many things to point out about the lack of understanding in your strategy, but I'll randomly pick only one. With regard to taxes, if your SPY capital gains are long-term, that's a very low tax rate, unless you're selling well over six figures of stock. And bear in mind that if you get a huge hit on a put, you have to pay tax on that as well, which will be of the short-term variety. But until you understand the math that underlies the premium you're paying for an option, you shouldn't be trading them. Maybe you'll get lucky and TSLA will crater before you get vol crushed, or you'll get extra lucky and actually find yourself ITM before expiry, but I suspect that if you do, it may actually be worse for you in the long run—like a guy who wins his first-ever bet at the horse track.

Selling SPY would be 15% for me, but the size is pretty large. I don't ever want to sell SPY, that is my "safe" money and I could miss a big pump in the market. I did not factor in taxes for my original math for buying the put which could actually be a pretty big mistake. I'll probably be paying 22%-32% on the put when Tesla drops to those lower levels.

I wanted to make a negative position on Tesla. Shorting freaks me out, because I don't want to accidently owe infinite money. Puts feel safer because there is a cap on the loss. Granted I did not shop around much for a better deal on the premium. I just looked at risk reward. I had slightly over $2000ish in my "fun" money account at the time so my put had to be far OTM. I think you can write off about $3,500 on taxes for losses.

I definitely would not consider myself a trader. I don't know the Greeks and all that other stuff either. I don't even know what the "floor" is that people talk about. I'm assuming it is suppose to be a bunch of buy orders at a certain level. People in Bitcoin would talk a lot about resistance levels and they got broken all the time so I'm not too afraid of floors if it is what I think it means.

I think when it goes ITM I will be better off in the long run because I'll have more money. Maybe I'll buy a Tesla Model 3 with it.

hey all:

Just took a gander at some of the financial stats behind TSLA at $625/share.

This is WAY moar of a bubble than I initially thought.

This is a car company selling at 25X sales? That is 25X sales, NOT profits. Most car companies trade at a FRACTION of sales. Of course, TSLA is not your standard car company!

TSLA is trading for like 31X book value. This is a company that manufactures complex machines. They need factories....factories that have tooling, machines, robots, workers. They need tons of steel, tires, glass, electronics, batteries. You've got to have a TON of assets to make sales. How is the current capital structure going to expand the business? How are they going to grow this capital base when they aren't even making any material profits? How is the current capital base going to grow sales 10X?

If the market decides that play time is over, I would not be surprised to see TSLA go down over 90% from here.

Welcome to the short thesis from the last 5 years (longer?)

They have the software for self driving cars. Robot cars if you will. What is 6 billion times a $100,000 robot taxi. YEARLY. Because you take that number and it will be your future market cap.

TSLA almost at 35% drawdown, which has so far been a very profitable buy point.