You were correct about my misstake. However the market seems to have taken the numbers rather well:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla

$224.88 +7.89 +3.64%

Predictable fanboys driving the price up after terrible news!

3 upgrades actually. The Wall Street pump in action...they did the same with Enron and Valeant (the latter I was saying would be a fraction of the price a year later while they were saying buy at $110).

And with TSLA, it happens! Once on some shocker news it dipped, went up 5%, and then dropped 20% over the next week.

I have no opinion on TSLA at this point. News isn't terrible, although it's obviously not good. Can't see a clear trade either way.

Looks like some big players were smart enough to realize that missing by a week on the logistics of delivering mostly custom made cars around the world isn't a big deal when production and demand/sales is well within guidance for the year AND you shut down for two weeks in the quarter to upgrade your autopilot suite to hardware that is at least two years ahead of even the best competitive production vehicles. My guess for production in Q4 was exactly 25k, which is what they did, but incorrectly assumed they would shrink vehicles in transit to 4k or so. To a long term investor that kind of miss is nothing, with production and demand being far more important as with AP2 and gigafactory coming online as planned.

When you miss production targets once, it's a disappointment.

When you miss production targets all the time, it's a tradition.

If TSLA keeps running up to 250, seems like a good time to dilute and do another equity offering to raise some cash when the iron is still hot. Even you mega bulls must agree they'll need to raise cash again this year.

that's why wall street loves them. tsla gonna provide some juicy business for the banks this year and forward. just look at how evercore and lazard got paid for not even doing their own research on the scty deal.
everybody's getting paid with that endless shareholder money, except shareholders, of course.

Ironically, diluting the share count to raise $5 billion in one hit would be bullish.

You can't put a price on crazy.

High volume too. Wonder if the massive short position is starting to cover or if a few big institutions are adding to their position at the start of the year.

Think some of the price increase was due to this:
https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/bat...ry?redirect=no

Factory is looking good:

Well I guess people would prefer that TSLA guide 30% lower and hit all the time instead of guiding so high that people scoff and come within 5% all the time.
A lot of companies guide so they can hit and the CEO can keep his job, Musk guides way too high and comes close and the people who laugh at them for their guidance still laugh at the company for barely missing?

As long as they come close they are doing really well, that's why the stock went up after missing. Most investors are fairly smart, the TSLA doubters here are not (or at least their reasons are dumb)

A few thousand cars here and there doesn't mean anything for TSLA.

The real question is whether they can ship a car for under $35k profitably in mass market volume. That will be very difficult to pull off, but the stock is priced as though they can.

I don't want Tesla to ship sub $35k cars at all, despite their own plans. I think Tesla's strongest path forward is Acura/BMW type of positioning with a side business of supplying batteries to other car manufacturers.

Meanwhile, the witching hour waxes pregnant with the incoming Trump administration, as the Necromancer wields his long-time spell over Peter Thiel to acquire extended face time with the President-Elect.

This can only be GOOD NEWS for Mark Spiegel, I assume.

i don't even get why people are touting this so enthusiastically. stock has basically been flat since hitting 240 in feb2014 while s&p and dow have returned 15-20%. market is giving you the answer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...andards-intact
Since PHEV struggle to get even there it seems that a lot of EVs will be needed to offset all the below 50mpg vehicles that the automakers wants to sell. I guess a lot of scrambling will be happening over the coming years!

50+mpg gasoline cars are already sold in Japan and Europe, though still uncommonly. 40+mpg seems relatively standard for small models in Europe/Japan.

The technologies already exist to produce 200+HP cars with 50mpg gasoline cars. The manufacturers just made the determination consumers won't pay for such vehicles. (see natural experiments with hybrid Accords and other such models that charge a couple K premium for better fuel economy AND better performance)

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst.../12437730.html
Pre-market: 247,50 +9,14 (+3,83 %)

Capital raise incoming...

guess which bank's going to handle it...

Great time to sell and take your profit again...

Remember that autopilot death TS was ranting about last year, proved Tesla system was **** or something. NHTSA closed investigation without finding any issue with Tesla's AP, noted that AP1 cars saw a 40% drop in accidents vs pre-AP tesla's. So there's that.

In other AP related news, Tesla recruited away Apples top software god Chris Lattner to head the software behind AP and manage the team.

Lattner on why after 11 years at the top at Apple he's leaving for Tesla:

This was a very difficult decision, because I care deeply about the technology and people at Apple and because I could see myself staying there for many more years. In the end though, the opportunity to dive into a completely new area and work with the amazing Tesla Autopilot team was irresistible.

Tesla has also recruited other A list Apple talent in recent months fwiw.

Hmm, guy who other top programmers view as one of the very best software guys in the industry thinks Tesla's AP team is amazing.

I don't know, Cuban B, to me this sounds like more GOOD NEWS for Mark Spiegel.

Why would Tesla feel the need to keep hiring the best people in the world for Autopilot unless...well, unless, internally they know their autonomy platform still needs work?

With what Stuttgart and Detroit have coming down the pike in 2025, that should be a scary thought for Tesla longs.