#HedgeFundingSecured

I find that number to be dubious.

Well then Tooth do not contradict your position from the other thread that "experts are infallible".

If you start again speaking out of both sides of your mouth I will be here to call you on it.

Hey all:

Here is one of the main things that I simply don't understand about the Tesla.

Let us say you are "reasonable investor" buying TSLA at $800/share. You aren't a gambler/speculator, you are in it for the long haul. Does anybody think that in 5-6-7 years TSLA is going to be $1,600+ a share? That TSLA is going to start paying a dividend? That TSLA is undervalued and the market will re-price it's stock higher when they start making some serious money?

I would think that if you buy a stock, you would want to have a reasonable chance or expectation that it will double in 5-6-7 years. That is say a compounded rate of return of 10% to 14% per year.

If TSLA is $1,600, it would be worth MOAR than the entire auto industry, and not by a little bit. Would TSLA be earning something like $100 in net earnings? That would put TSLA at a 16 P/E for an auto manufacturer...a pretty high historical figure. TSLA would have to have earnings of 95 BILLION dollars a year to support that. No auto company has ever come anywhere close to that...not even close.

It might be mighty foolish of me to even think that the average TSLA investor is even thinking about sales, earnings, dividend, anything outmoded like that.

And the incessant bickering between the same group of people spills into yet another thread.

You may be right. I'd expect they are up at least $550M (pre-tax), but probably more, haven't read the 10-K and don't know entry price.

Not that I disagree, but you could've put this statement at any time in the past 10yrs and it would've still been reasonable to think. But look where we are.

Are they overvalued? Imo no doubt, but that doesn't mean the price won't double in the next year.

I own a few shares I bought at $450 just for a sweat, but not looking to buy anymore.

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You are a terrible manager of real estate.

I highly doubt they ever pay a dividend. 1) Their profit is arguably all accounting tricks and gov't titty stuff and 2) Musk wants his legacy to be colonizing Mars. He's not going to build Tesla into a Ford-like mature company and then when there's nothing left to do pay dividend. So long as Mars is not colonized, there is something left to do and he will expire any and all resources he has available to him to that end

What is what it sounds like inside the mind of an Elon Musk diamond hands hodlfanmoonboi?

What is going on in Texas right now seems pretty bearish for the mass electrification of cars

It is how I picture bears picturing bulls in this thread. In reality it's Carlos Matos.

Why?

It seems to me that mass EV's would become a significant offset for this problem.

Once mass EV's are in place it will almost certainly follow that many/most homes will have some solar and a power wall to cheaply create and capture solar or wind at home to power their car and sell energy back into the grid.

You can pretty much bet new home builders will just have it in homes as the default at some point.



Most Texas homes right now would be in decent shape if they had a power wall and an EV in the garage they could be pulling power out of to run basic heat during the outage.

Seems bearish for Texas seceding from the Union.

Almost certainly? I'd like you to explain this leap of logic.


Around where I live, it seems that many - maybe most - new homes have solar installed. But, I see no link between buying an EV and stalling solar.

There is a convergence between these things from what i have seen.

Increasing use of EV's in a community correlates to a greater openness to voluntary use of solar in the home and then an increase in solar energy storage (battery walls).

That link may not be established as quickly (or at all) where gov'ts simply mandate or incentivize home builders to put solar panels on their roofs and the people have no real voluntary buy in to the process but are just dragged into via mandate.

My next car might be an EV. As things currently stand, there is no way I'd install solar in my current house. My house is very energy efficient and my electric bills are very low. Even if my bills went to 0 it would take +20 years to pay off the installation costs. Of course things could, and will, change so that the calculation becomes more favorable to installing solar. But that calculation is independent of the decision to buy an electric car.


Also, selling energy back to the grid is not easy in all areas. The structure here - at least the last time I looked - makes it almost impossible to any significant extent.

Plus solar panels on the roof are ugly, might be shallow but if EV cars had those panels on the roof no one would buy one.

It's also illegal in some places

smh

The economics will get better and better to both drive an EV as well as use solar at home and to capture and store energy and sell it back to the grid.

Indeed in the near term it will need to be subsidized massively to get it to a point that makes sense but once there is critical mass it will be far more efficient than most other forms of energy with a lower cost long term.


It was similar for building out the original electrical grid. Massive up front costs, individual user usage lagging due to cost prohibitiveness of pulling new lines into underserved communities, etc but once the infrastructure was all in place you simply would not build a home without all the connectivity in place and infrastructure.

We will get to a point where Home Builders will just automatically be putting solar panels and battery walls in each new build.

Maybe a place like San Diego where there is very little surge power needs, ever, might avoid it, but anywhere where you get high heat or deep cold causing massive power demand surges will make sense to have this built in redundancy in place where all homes have hours of back up power for their own use and to sell back to the grid when needed, I believe it is inevitable. Especially as climate change drives more extreme weather patterns.

If Texas had high saturation of solar on homes with battery walls in garage all tied in to a smart grid this current crisis plays out very differently. The threat of a surge demand for power in areas that could collapse the entire grid would be met with allowing certain areas to rotate in and off the grid supplementing with their own reserve power to manage that surge demand.

Solar is coming, but Tesla solar is not good and its already a fairly mature market.

That may well be, but your original statement that started this seemed to imply that there was a connection/causation between having an EV and installing solar power. If that's not what you meant, then carry on.

No, no. That is just poor reading comprehension by you.

My statement speaks to correlation.

You will find that in areas with high EV penetration, typically corresponding higher voluntary solar use and higher in home battery storage use as a percent of the population.

As EV penetration increases so to do the others follow.

For instance every 'power wall' i have seen in a normal residential use currently, and i have seen an increasing number of them are by guys who own an EV and added the power wall after.

I have yet to come across anyone who has added a power wall who does not own an EV.

Calm down big boy, I am not Tooth. Your statement, as written, definitely implies causation.



I also don't find it surprising that you find owners of Tesla Powerwalls also own Tesla cars. Who else would buy one?

I agree that it is EV owners who would buy powerwalls. The 'tesla' part is not selling the feature there, it is owning an EV and then seeing the benefit of having a powerwall in your home.

Again that is the correlation I was referring to. And I do not agree that causation is more of a result of my statement than correlation.

I would say it again another way that if you go into areas with high EV use it follows that you will also find higher solar and power wall use in the homes of those car owners compared to the general public.


If you were not sure and read that and had asked me 'are you suggesting causation or correlation', I would say correlation.