What percentage of Elon are they betting on? 80%? 50%? 33%? Imagine how much TSLA would be worth if he didn't spread his ideas out among multiple unrelated companies.

Since Tesla doesn't even have a marketing department...what marketing are you referring to?

I'm not sure if you are serious, but if you are, Musk is a one-man marketer (carnival barker).

I don't get the question but 100%? His cult following (and anyone who believes in his goal of getting people to Mars among other things) are straight #DiamondHands

I dunno about you, but I've never seen a Toyota buyer act like waiting way too long for a delivery that shows up with a jacked up paint job is no big deal...

The stock is obv propped up to one degree or another by a base of people detached from reality in a market detached from reality. Like a sports bettor who can spot that perhaps a match is fixed, it is arguable Tesla is immune to the consequences of its own blatant bullshit

Twitter and it's free

At this point, FSD is obviously never going to actually drive itself. Maybe people are purchasing it because they like the feature as it currently exists. It's kind of a no hands on the wheel for 30s trick ?

I'm ready to bet against this claim, with a reasonable time horizon substituted for "never" and a reasonable definition for "drive itself", perhaps level 4?

I came to this thread expecting to see a bunch of bull cases to understand this wild $850 price on Tesla Stock. I would not consider myself that knowledgeable of an investor, but from what I see on Yahoo Finance, it is over valued.

Tesla needs to make 40 billion dollars per quarter just to reach a 20 P/E ratio. I can understand $50 a share, maybe a bit higher for speculative potential, but $850 is just wow. Compare that with GM which has a track record of profitability at $54 per share. If I'm not mistaken, over half of the world population that drives would have to own a Tesla in order to justify the price.

I want to take a negative position on Tesla stock, but I am inexperienced. Considered doing a short sell, but maybe a put option may be better. If it crashes, I think it will crash hard so maybe a put option is the best. Not sure.

Noob question, I can buy a put option and sell it without ever owning the shares right? 100 shares of tesla might be too expensive of a position for me. I'm thinking of betting somewhere between 4k-8k.

I am a huge TESLA bear but why would anyone aim at 20 P/E? Interest rates are only getting lower around the world. A box that makes 5k a year is worth 150-200k these days. The hope with TESLA is also that it has important tech (batteries) and may be able to make money out of it.

Look how much longer term put options for TESLA cost. It's just very expensive (not surprisingly as a lot of people expect it to crash). The problem is that ridiculous TESLA valuation may hold for much longer than your options and it's very expensive to keep repurchasing them.

P/E is normally yearly.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trailingpe.asp

Tesla made $2 EPS nongaap in 2020. So a $50 share price would imply a trailing PE of 25, so if you think it deserves a PE 20, then yes $50 would be overvalued. ******ed longs are betting that earning will keep increasing, it did increase >7000% YoY in 2020 afterall. I personally think this year will only see triple digit growth though :-/ so I guess the growth of the growth story is over.

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1...-Update.pdf%22

Yeah, it is expensive wow. Didn't expect it to be that much. I'm looking at buying 1 put for March 18, 2022 with 400 as the strike price. Max I lose is $4,375. If Tesla goes to $150 I'd have $20,625. I'm risking 4,375/(4,375 + 20,625) = 17.5% in order for it to be profitable. I think this may be feasible.

Need to get more money in my account first though, also there may be some better options out there (forgive the pun).

Don't go after the most obvious / hyped up trade there is unless you want to just straight up gamble.

Whoa, big mistake on my part thinking quarterly. I've got to slow the **** down.

Thank you for posting this - it shows how completely bankrupt and stupid and dishonest the bull case is. Just like your projected $25 billion/year of profits in 2019 that you posted as a credible thesis in 2017, including projects billions in profit from solar roofs (lol!). Just total and utter reality detachment on par with GME/WallStreetBets from you. Millions of people like you (fed by Musk lies) have soared the stock into a huge bubble, but the fundamentals haven't improved apart from bankruptcy being off the table thanks to the $15 billion in secondaries by selling stock into the fraud bubble.

another day another recall

No one buys cars - or makes a 10k$ extra purchase for an option - based on tweets.

...unless they really have so much money that they don't know what to do with it.

It's also not like anyone is pushing these tweets on people (unlike ads). If you follow someone on Twitter you don't need any more convincing.

In the end the product is good. That's why I bought the stock: because the narrative the media was spinning was completely at odds with how the product is and also no one - at least in the media - seemed to look beyond cars. (And no. my personal bull case does not include FSD any time soon...or any time at all)

Wrong.

I think at this point the popular thesis is that TESLA is a good store of value :-)

I am a total noob and don't trade, but I think many people are making a fundamental error in analysis of TSLA. Think of it like you're on step A, B, and C, as are many, so the options cost a lot in a crowded pack wanting to short. Clearly overvalued. It will come down...

Given this irrational stock within an irrational market, Tesla is on steps D, E, and F and have been the whole time. The shorts keep losing and don't understand why. It's because the first mistake is thinking everything is moving rationally. It's the opposite. Understand the game and play the players

Is this a correct way to look at things?

Shorting Tesla only works if you are willing to, for lack of a better description, Martingale the short until it hits. But there is no real way to know when that happens, and doubly so because Tesla has gimmicked its way to eating shorts up for basically every inflection point that has come along...

That is my thinking. Tell me where I'm wrong and why please and tia

I think it could continue to be up, but at some point it has to come down. I think when it starts to sell off it will be a panic sell off, because that is the mentality of people that buy things out of hype. If that can happen to where it gets to 150 even 17.5% of the time, then my trade would be profitable. I see it similarly to a bet in holdem. Granted the payout can be different depending on where it stabilizes. Maybe that is the wrong way to think about it, but that is the way I see it.

What are the odds of Tesla being as high as it is 10 years from now? If I make this same bet consecutively 4 times in the next 4 years and I'm only right once, I make a profit. Maybe me thinking Tesla could get to 150 is ******ed, but what probability would you assign it?

If I could escrow confidently, I would bet that a Tesla manufactured before 1/1/2022 will never drive from my drive way to a bar downtown 3mi away to pick me up with zero human interventions. I would approximate never as about 10-12 years, since most buyers move on from their cars after 10 years have passed. But I am very confident this would never happen for existing Teslas. But for a bet, you have to pick some time.

i still think at some point elon steps down from ceo to a position like chief imagineering officer "to focus on getting us to mars" (and possibly sells some stonk along the way). mission accomplished, look at all the EVs on the road!

also (disclaimer i'm a bear) i think sometime soon deliveries will disappoint and when they can't sell $300 mil in regulatory credits every quarter earnings will be a major disappointment. who knows when though? i will continue to burn money on put spreads every delivery announcement and earnings release.

What I think I'm saying is that even if this is correct, you're still doing it wrong. And Tesla repeatedly owns people who are thinking like this over and over. This thread is like ten years old

The only people killing it with TSLA are the ones who are competently trading its volatility in both directions or long term bullish but with set parameters to take profit on the way up, knowing it is perpetually overvalued and "at some point it has to come down", perhaps once and for all if the assessment is right

TeflonDawg,
The bears were crushing it and the bulls horribly wrong until Musk told The Big Lie in 2019 and turned around his near bankrupt (his own words) company, with demand dying and unable to raise funds despite desperate pitching to lots of potential backers.

The hail mary lie was told at his most dire time, and consisted of:

- Fully Self Driving (level 5 autonomy) feature complete at the end of 2019
- 1 million robotaxis on the road in 2020, earning $10 billion/year profit for Tesla
- Teslas will appreciate up to five times in value to be worth hundreds of thouands of dollars each

These were total deliberate frauds. He had enough credibility from SpaceX and a carefully cultivated (and bribed) fawning press for most people to consider this at least a possibility; much of the lay public actually believed that Tesla was leading on autonomous driving instead of being dead last; that's what carefully cultivated PR had achieved.

The above lies created interest, demand and wide press for both Tesla stock and vehicles. It was a fantastic con and the base of this huge runup. Simultaneously, he got unlimited loans at unbelievable terms from the Chinese; what he traded in return we don't know, but we do know that everyone turned him down for funding in early 2019 and things were dire - again by his own words ("weeks from bankruptcy").

The bulls like heltok had comically wrong assessments of Tesla products and profits. They were simply completely wrong, including about Musk as a conman: he's the best conman of our age, and that's been the thing (and nothing else) that's propelled Tesla stock and kept the company afloat.

If they tapped into anything, it was sharing the stupidities of their fellow man, suckered in by a great con.

It also helps we're in one of the biggest ponzi waves of all time. NIO for example is an $89 billion company (3x Ford) delivering a few thousand cars per quarter - compare with Ford's millions per quarter and billions in profits.

Imo look to the first page in this thread. Back then bears were convinced that Tesla was insanely overvalued at $30B. Now they think it is overvalued at $800B. But do they think the fair price is less than $30B? No, they probably think Tesla should be worth $30-200B or something. In another decade they might think $10T is overvalued, a more fair price would be $1-3T.

There is a possibility that every bear needs to consider. What if the bulls were right all along? What if there was some secret sauce in Tesla’s organisation that made them abledevelop a product that customers wanted and be able scale it rapidly? Some secret sauce that is hard for Ford, GM, Toyota and VW to replicate? Attracting talented engineers, having an organization that allows them to be productive, easy access to capital making investments into future demand possible, very little dead weight resistant to change in the organisation, first mover advantage, investors willing to tolerate past losses for future earnings etc. And what if their operating margins keep growing as they scale up revenue? Could that actually extrapolate into a valuation that actually makes the bull case reasonable?

Or: Investors that have a bit of money but just wanted to invest in a company that makes the world a better place..and didn't care at all whether they made money - neither in the short nor in the long run?

I'm fully aware that people who regularly trade in stocks are utterly incapable of comprehending a 'no profit' mindset (but it exists. Quite a few people who recently invested in Gamestop did it with a similar mindset).
If you look at the people who were early investors in Tesla then you'll find these types en masse.

Money has no particular value after you've got your expenses covered. More money doesn't increase happiness one bit.