First month of the quarter bad numbers somewhere. Where have I heard that one before? Wanna guess the number of China deliveries in Q1? Wanna take the under on 70k? I’m gonna guess 75k plus like 5k MIC Model 3 to APAC and Europe for a total of 180k. YoY Q1 and Q2 is gonna be decent.

this recall is going to be interesting. people wait weeks for service center appointments already.

Sure, but it was probably in the Q4 statement. It might even become cash positive if they manage to convince enough people to upgrade to the new MCU while they are being serviced.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-mode...rice-discount/

I'll take under 70k China deliveries I guess 55k

Just to clarify, China deliveries and Shanghai are different. Here is troys estimate:


I take the over on 70k in China ^^

"the 130.000 cars recall was probably in the Q4 statement" gives me a lot of confidence in your analysis of this company... lol

Not giving a direct opinion of heltok per se, but any poster who shows up and disappears when "number go up" or down and vice versa should give you pause and at least a minimum quantity of skepticism in their analysis

Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people.

here's an idea from my mind:
how about just googling product recall accounting?

Heltok also prefers his numbers in non-gaap because why wouldn't you want the cooked numbers

I was taking what BooLoo implied and saying it's applicable to any poster who behaves within the thread in the way I described. I led with "this isn't my opinion of heltok..." for a reason. Whether it applies to you or not is irrelevant

In other words, I was discussing an idea (what I said) and not a specific person (you)

Yeah I don't think that's true at all.

But let's say it is and apply it to Tesla. The long thesis on Tesla is being balls deep in Musk love; it's personal for Tesla bulls. There's never been a fundamental (ideas) or technology (ideas) case to invest in Tesla at even 5% of the current price; it's purely cult-love of Musk which has resulted in people believing the lies and fraud he used to pump his stock. Fully self driving feature complete by the end of 2019, anyone? 1 million robotaxis in 2020? Tesla cars to appreciate to hundreds of thousands of dollars each in 2020?

Great minds look at Tesla fundamentals (ideas). Average minds look at price (events). Small minds look at Musk and trust him (people)

Hilariously, as far as investing is concerned, it pays to be a small mind for last two years as retail drives the market - investing with the vast flow of naive money who focus on and talk about people has resulted in enormous price appreciation.

Does this 184k Q1 number basically match Q4 ? How seriously should we take this? Aren't Q1s for Tesla usually a decent drop-off from Q4

Amazon says hi......

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

Thread breaking down the FSD scam at a level even heltok can understand. Ed''s going hard lately.

Cute timeline. But then again, it’s running in customer cars and should be out for wide US release this or next month. Bears can argue that Musk lied when he said funding secured at $420 or 100% confident FSD in 2019. But Tesla longs will remain RE-tarded longer than shorts can remain solvent. Go long or have fun staying poor!

PS Tesla should be getting close to $1T if we include the upcoming stock rewards to Elon. Any bets on when they will overtake Apple? By 2025?

Tell me when AMZN was a top 10 company trading on results 8 to 10 years ahead and how its business compares with car manufacturing.

I'll take the over.


Of course, I'm talking about actual Full Self Driving. Not the scam they pulled with "Auto Pilot".

I dunno. That seemed more like people not really understanding what an autopilot is. The term is taken from aviation.

Does an autopilot in aviation taxi from the terminal to the runway? No.

Does an autopilot in aviation take off on its own? No.

Does an autopilot in aviation evade other planes? No.

Does an autopilot in aviation land on its own? No.

Does an autopilot in aviation taxi from the runway to the terminal? No.

An autopilot in aviation takes a predetermined set of waypoints and tries to follow them.

That's
It.

The autopilot in a car did exactly that (get you from the on ramp to the off ramp).
Why people found this terminology confusing I'll never understand.

i'm old enough to remember when a certain ceo said his cars were going to drive on their own from new york to los angeles by the end of 2017.

to quote: "All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go."

I'll never understand why some fall back on the technical definition of auto pilot from the aviation world and discount the real world implications of calling something auto pilot when marketing to the general public.

I made this defense a couple of years ago. The problem is, I worked in aviation maintenance for 10 years, so my level of knowledge is significantly higher than the average Tesla owner.

Also, the whole autopilot thing falls apart when you realize the other comments made by Musk about FSD and how close they claimed to be.

Autopilot in aviation sounds a lot like cruise control in a car

So I can see why anyone who default think autopilot is more than cruise control and logically end at self driving of some sort, no matter how stupid that may seem

Plus this is Musk we're talking about. He's not exactly honest. Nothing he says and does seems honest and they advertise. His desire to get people to Mars is stronger than concern for someone getting decapitated or burning alive because his tech is not on point...

Maybe, but it's not really just manufacturing cars and it's not really just competing with Ford, Toyota, et al

Also, it could be argued the valuation is factored in in the sense that people aren't entirely betting on Tesla. They're betting on Elon Musk

There is something to be said for having a cult following to the point you can do no wrong. It is clearly a part of the bull case imo, no matter how anyone may look at it