Sure if you think a plunging gross margin is nothing....but the narrative remains. My TSLA buddy after this horrid report said the most noticeable thing was the increased gaming capacity as it means they are ready for FSD any week now and people will have nothing to do with FSD going and need to game.

Who cares about (current) profits as long as they are not going into ruinous debt? That would only be relevant if Tesla were not a rapidly growing company.

Optimally they should be at a net profit of zero - pumping everything possible into growth (hell, they are currently building three of the biggest buildings in the world as new factories and producing out of two others) .

With 500k reservations on stuff they haven't even been producing and everything else they are making supply constrained (from cars to power-products)...what would be the point of them hoarding cash?

If you look at quarterly figures there will always be noise and you can always find one metric going in the right/wrong direction. Imo instead look at the trends. Which looks like this:


I don’t see any negative trends here. So many effects will take time to show up, for example take-rate for FSD in China is only 1-2%. Sure this might be because chinese are not stupid like americans and don’t want to waste money on suiciding themselves, but it also is a growing pool of potential FSD upgrades later this year and next year. Or just to resell the leased vehicles with FSD included for a higher price than was assumed in the lease. And this was a pretty bad year, I expect next year to be much better.

But yes, I was dissapointed with numbers, most of it has explainations but still I was hoping for better. But what they said during the call imo was very bullish and we should see the results of this over the next few years. I will predict 850k vehicles 2021, 1.5M vehicles 2022, 2.5M vehicles 2023. Quote me on these numbers!

negative trends = constant lying about FSD and depleting tax credits as EVs are becoming more popular

FSD in beta release to customers rapidly improving, wide US release in Q1 very likely, tax credits maybe getting reinstated by Biden, EV competition still struggling.

But that is just us interpreting events to fit our thesis to try to defend our potentially false narratives. More fun to put money behind our words or at least post falsifiable predictions and compare outcomes.

Tesla is priced like it already captured almost the entire car world market. So even if it does (and it won't), there is no upside here.

You're thinking too small. Once the settlement on Mars is established Tesla will be the only car manufacturer for millions of martians. By 2030 we will see fully automated Tesla taxis taking people from Martian City all the way to Detroit II

Since Tesla isn't a car company this doesn't make sense to me.

Yes, they currently sell cars to scrape up the cash for the transition...just like they sold the roadster to scrape up the cash for the Model S...the Model S for the Model X...the S and X for the Model 3...and now for the Model Y and some extra factories.

But if you think that Tesla is in it just to sell cars then you haven't been paying attention to the news for the last half decade.

You can see this in basically all of Elon Musk's companies
SpaceX: Falcon 9 to Falcon Heavy to Starlink to BFR to Starship to....Mars
Boring company: simple tunneling to infrastructure/transport provider
Neuralink: ...well...Musk is a big fan of Ian Banks novels...so it's pretty easy to grok where that one is going.


The endgame for Tesla isn't cars. It's energy (they've already started applying in some countries for licenses as an energy provider).

And if you look at the top 11 companies in the world by revenue, then there's just two that aren't going to lose shares to Tesla (Wallmart and Amazon)

So, yeah. I think Tesla can get bigger. Much bigger.

We know their number one business is stock appreciation.

That part of their business is even worse.

so when will this energy transition start?
solarcity deployed ~800MW the year tesla bought them.
tesla did 200MW last year.

MWs deployed yearly globally doubled in that timeframe. they are basically nonexistent in that market right now (~0.15%), you couldn't even see them on any reasonable chart.

Good question. Since the transition heavily relies on the availability of batteries - and batteries are the No.1 constaint for Tesla - it's a POV thing what you consider a transition.
Personally I think the crossover between auto revenue and energy revenue is at least 8-10 years out (so yes, this is a long term investment for me and I'm not sweating any daily fluctuations), but all the work that goes into the transition will happen earlier.

But we're already seeing it in the q4 numbers: installed power storage jumped by a crazy percentage (fueled not only by the home powerwalls but the mega- and gigapacks that buffer the grid)

Solar roof is only a small part of it (and an irrelvant one at that - because a lot of other companies do solar on roofs)...it's the combination of solar (roof), powerwall, and autobidder that will create virtual powerplants.

so they are a battery company and not an energy company?

that's weird, because right now, they don't even build their own batteries.

they have like 1 page about their whole energy business in their press release, lol.
everybody knows that business is dead.

They buy their batteries. So?
Do car companies run rubber plantations for their tires?

(And yes. They are also starting to put up their own battery factories. The one is Berlin is going up as we speak. They're even going into mining their own resources. Tesla has understood that 'paying suppliers' is more costly than doing stuff yourself. Vertical integration. It's a cost benefit over traditional auto makers who have to buy everything from third parties)

Batteries are more complicated than rubber. In fact putting batteries into the end product is a less sophisticated business.

Countering your own argument...

So TSLA is among the top 10 most valuable companies in the world based on what may happen in 8 to 10 years? Don't you find that insane?

ok, so we have established, that they are in fact not an energy company but a car company and battery reseller right now and might be a battery producer in the future.

Once again, the fact that FSD is noticeably improving still, let alone rapidly, means Tesla is years behind.

And when it is noticeably improving from 100 % to 2000% human level miles per accident, it also means that Tesla is years behind. You need to do better mental gymnastics.

Don’t worry, in a few months you will be able to experience it yourself and you can compare if a test drive of a Tesla is years behind any other car you can test drive. Then you can verify if you were right or wrong. The only question is, will the result change your mental model of the world or not.

i'll be interested again, when they take legal responsibility for the driving, like the industry leaders do.

Not really. Tesla is a growth stock. If it were a company that was just chugging along (like some regular company selling a mature product that has already full market saturation), then I would fully agree that the stock is insanely high.

Given the growth expectations of the company over the next ten years? Not in the slightest. I'm with Ron Barron and Chamath Palihapitiya (damn, that name is hard to remember/spell) on this one: Tesla has still 3-5x in it in the next 10 years.

...and this even though I'm fully expecting the robotaxi idea to fail.

gRoWtH sToCk

Here is a breif model for the valuation of TSLA:
https://piper2.bluematrix.com/sellsi...om&source=mail
(Link might die)

Imo he is a bit pessimistic wrt to growth 2025-2030. Or maybe I am too optimistic... Anyway a decent model you guys can use and modify the numbers however you believe they should be.

(Page 35 for a summary of his deliveries forecast)

with all the proof shown in this thread does it really matter if the price keeps going up?

even if it goes tits up in 20 years does it really matter?

Show me your maths behind this.

oh come on.
you can't still be taking sellside models serious.
they all just want in on the fees of teslas next cap raise.

13k m3 China sales in january, "few hundred" mY sales