bought various put spreads down to 400 through march in case we come back down to earth a little bit

Total EV sales in China were up 90K in 2020. But this article says over 180K EVs sold were due to the new "Bringing automobiles to the countryside" promotion (where they're mostly buying super cheap, "mini"-sized EVs). Ergo, outside of that promotion in rural areas, sales were down 90K+.

I am dubious of the estimate that the program contributed 180k units. At any rate, even if true, it's not bad news for Tesla that Chinese competitors in the luxury space are failing pretty damn hard. It suggests Tesla is the only viable player (lol BYD, GJGE) in the non-budget EV categories.

More budget EVs, more subsidies, and more infrastructure, make the situation better for Tesla, not worse.

So many cracks showing right now:

Behold, the cult logic. This level of effortless cognitive dissonance is a thing of beauty really.

First you pronounce the China EV market is "rapidly expanding" and how great that is for Tesla. Now, when presented with evidence that Tesla's portion of the Chinese market isn't actually growing, that's good news because it means the competition must suck.

Heads you win, tails you win. Elon lands rockets. Stock price bro.

I think we just have different definitions of ”proof”. What is your prediction for Shanghai factory deliveries in 2021? Will you take the under on 300k?

they say they can build 550.000 cars there.
why would anyone take the under on 300k when tesla has shown that they will just cut prices a gazillion times to move product?

Because of the proof that their market is not growing? Do you believe 500k Freemont 500k, Shanghai 550k, Berlin and Austin 100k to be feasible? Even I don’t. I think 550k is the toal production rate capacity at the end of the year, not their expected number of deliveries for the year... But would love to be wrong on this one.

I am gonna guess that Tesla will guide 1M vehicles but fail to meet it. Bear will find it funny that Tesla only delivered 950k vehicles, again Musk was proven to be a liar and fraud.

3 weeks ago they said they can build 8k/week, so 300k would be a dumb target anyway.

it's a stock promotion scheme. they will achieve whatever they need until someday it all falls apart.

if the story in the market is still about deliveries, then sure, they will deliver a lot of cars. 800k, 1m whatever. but maybe people will start asking about all their cap raises again and how they give out new shares like candy on halloween.
or their service issues or when solar and batteries will finally be a big part of their business (never) or when full-self-driving will work in their old cars (never) and they have to fight and spend all their billions on a different front.

it's just a giant game of whack-a-mole.

Imo the story in the market is the growth of deliveries. Will it be >30% for the next decade or not? Will it be 40%? 50%? And 800k or 1M in 2021 is a strong indication of which of these it will be and that will influence the stock price a lot.

And that combined with the stories of FSD, Storage, Solar and future products.

There is still a story regarding Tesla’s profitablilty and need to raise cash. Imo the disagreement there is a possibility to find alpha. Best of luck if you take a position in any direction here! =)

vw ev sales are projected to grow 200%+ this year.
should they trade at a ~3-4 trillion valuation?

when does the future start for tesla? because the SCTY bailout was more than 4 years ago and there are great companies in storage and solar making a lot more money right now.

when is the future for FSD? will we see the first tesla without a safety driver this year?

doesn't the hypothetical value of FSD shrink every day they don't have it?
even when we assume they will be the first with full autonomy (which they won't be, but whatever) and can charge monopoly rates: there will be a day when others will offer full autonomy too. and from there the margins on whatever service they offer will shrink.

in your bull case, how many months/years ahead of waymo/cruise/mobileye/everyone else will they be?

Yes. So many cracks in the bull thesis. Clearly overvalued, no sane person would defend the current market price. Too bad that the stimulus package and robinhood will make it impossible to short the stock in the next few years... Stonks!

it's by far the most interesting story in business/finance/psychology even without monetary exposure.
if they make a good movie or tv series about it, i'll probably be a happy man.

so they would need to announce a new factory soon, don't they? if they want to reach their target for the end of the decade they need about one or two new ones or meaningful expensions (think double) per year. berlin was announced in 2019, texas in 2020. i think they need to go faster.

Current factories should be able to get them to 3-5M vehicles. So ”need” might be the wrong word, ”want” is more correct. I think right now they are very focused on making sure Berlin and Austin can open as planned and that they will have enough batteries for them.

My guess is that they will expand Giga Shanghai with phase 3 to do another 500k vehicles/year there. They will probably build some kind of factory in India, if it’s for storage/solar or for Model 2 I don’t know. They might squeeze in a factory in east coast US, maybe for Model 2.

Here is some proof that Tesla will never be able to acheive FSD:

Congrats, almost as good as Waymo was in 2009!

Not to derail but why the hell doesn't Google spin out Waymo during this EV frenzy??

Why would they?

Because stonks are not Google's business.

I think you are right the story is more about the growth over the next decade. It’s priced in for around 25-30% growth over a decade with good margins bc of FSD probably. If it slows down it probably tanks a lot. If it’s above 35% over a decade and margins stay high with FSD this is actually undervalued big time. Would mean they hit 10M cars with good margins and still growing at35% deserving a very high multiple let’s say like 40 p/e maybe 60 p/e with that type of growth 10 years from now.

It's my impression that Google thinks everything is their business.

Earnings out and seem not spectacular, but who cares it's GME time, tsla for boomers now

Spectacular for Tesla to have any

Still no cracks

GameStop mania shining some light on the Tesla cult?