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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

01-11-2021 , 09:17 PM
I liked an article on Facebook a friend of mine posted about Michael Burry being short Tesla a few days ago. Now everytime I log into Facebook I get suggested post and articles about how great Tesla is and to never bet against Elon Musk.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-12-2021 , 12:42 AM
Tesla's pay structure for senior executives is a poignant lesson on the power of incentives.

“Never, ever, think about something else when you should be thinking about the power of incentives.”

- Charlie Munger
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-12-2021 , 02:47 PM
GM is working on flying cars. Tesla is dead.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-12-2021 , 02:49 PM
Teslas are flying next year with only a software update
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-12-2021 , 03:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddymitchel
Teslas are flying next year with only a software update
FSD = Flying Super Drive
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-12-2021 , 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
. They lack autopilot and supercharger network, which is the two features I care about the most.
Did you see what the pedos over at Car and Driver had to say about the superchargers? https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...osts-per-mile/

"...using Tesla's Superchargers cost the equivalent of nearly $9 per gallon and roughly double the per-mile cost." (!!!)
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-12-2021 , 09:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
Did you see what the pedos over at Car and Driver had to say about the superchargers? https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...osts-per-mile/

"...using Tesla's Superchargers cost the equivalent of nearly $9 per gallon and roughly double the per-mile cost." (!!!)
Nah, I just care about what I pay and what most other sane customers end up paying. Btw I don’t pay as I get free supercharging =)

Seems like Tesla in 2020 are gonna end up doing ~35% of the global BEV+PHEV Wh. What do you geniuses here think that figure will be for 2021? I am gonna guess 40%.



Last edited by heltok; 01-12-2021 at 09:27 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-13-2021 , 02:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitti Vitti
FSD = Flying Super Drive
Already feature complete.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-13-2021 , 11:46 AM
The article itself says cost/mile is about same as BMW M340i (10.4c/mile for Tesla and 10.7c for the BMW).

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find...42275&id=41340

fueleconomy.gov has different numbers. The link compares Tesla v. Accord v. BMW M340i.

Supercharging stations are undoubtedly charging a premium and the cost of fuel does seem to be higher if you can't charge at home. But I really don't think cost of fuel is on top of minds of Tesla buyers.

Last edited by grizy; 01-13-2021 at 11:54 AM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-13-2021 , 10:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
The article itself says cost/mile is about same as BMW M340i (10.4c/mile for Tesla and 10.7c for the BMW).

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find...42275&id=41340

fueleconomy.gov has different numbers. The link compares Tesla v. Accord v. BMW M340i.

Supercharging stations are undoubtedly charging a premium and the cost of fuel does seem to be higher if you can't charge at home. But I really don't think cost of fuel is on top of minds of Tesla buyers.
And a Prius is less than 5 cents/mile...

But doesn’t the whole bull case depend on Tesla doing very well in the mass-market? Isn’t that the whole reason for the $35K Model 3 (fake) and $25K Model 2 (pipe dream)? Surely that market is much more sensitive to fuel costs than the cult currently buying the $50-100K+ shitboxes.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-13-2021 , 10:45 PM
Nobody spending 25-30k on a new car is that sensitive to fuel costs in that range. That's ~50 bucks a month (2.5c/mile * 2000 miles) for someone that drives 2000 miles a month and we're assuming a worst case scenario where they never charge at home or somewhere cheaper (like some buildings' parking lots).
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-14-2021 , 02:30 AM
Any estimates on cost to issue a recall on 158,000 Model X units?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-14-2021 , 02:34 AM
https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/13/fe...reen-displays/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tech Crunch
U.S. safety regulators have asked Tesla to recall 158,000 vehicles over media control unit failures that cause the touchscreen displays to stop working, following a months-long investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

...

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment. However, the company did provide information to NHTSA, which is contained in the report. Tesla confirmed to NHTSA that all units will inevitably fail given the memory device’s finite storage capacity. Tesla provided its own statistical model showing the number of projected weekly MCU repairs from 2020 to 2028. The automaker estimated that replacement rates for MCU failures will peak in early 2022 and gradually decline until (near) full part turnover has been accomplished in 2028, according to the report.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-14-2021 , 03:26 AM
I remember reading some years ago that the cucks at lolTesla - who claimed they would solve autonomous driving in 2019 despite being 5+ years behind - had a log file that just grew and grew and was never checked or trimmed, eventually filling up all the space until it failed with out of memory errors (that were unhandled). This was for something else (can't remember what), but they've obviously failed to learn from that mistake. Having a near zero cost MCU that fills up with more data each time the car starts until it chokes is pretty lol.

Just basic low level software team incompetence at work here. But we'll have fully self driving "feature complete" in 2019 and 1,000,000 robotaxis on the road in 2020, earning tens of billions a year for Tesla. I swear, your honor! I have a rocket company so when I lie my ass off you must believe me.

And people like heltok believed them and the stock soared and saved them from near bankruptcy (according to Musk). Hats off to Musk, easily the best conman of our generation. Madoff has got nothing on this guy.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 01-14-2021 at 03:31 AM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-14-2021 , 09:04 AM
oh man, they are sure lucky this expensive recall comes now after they've had enough profitable quarters to get into the s&p.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-15-2021 , 04:51 PM
anyone have an opinion on tesla getting into solar inverters?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-15-2021 , 05:30 PM
Mid-to-low level specs in a saturated market

I'm sure they will rip 7% Monday. They didn't even dip on news of a ~15% recall of their total lifetime deliveries
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01-16-2021 , 12:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
anyone have an opinion on tesla getting into solar inverters?
I think it's a branding play like Ferrari branding a bunch of unrelated products. That means high (for industry) margins (but low volume) and promotion of Tesla brand as green and electric.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-17-2021 , 08:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WSJ
Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Guidehouse Insights, said the recall request was significant and could cost $300 million to $500 million to address.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/car-saf...es-11610582727
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01-21-2021 , 06:53 AM
Just... unreal. Absolutely unreal.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-21-2021 , 09:59 AM
What
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-21-2021 , 10:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
I am gonna guess 200k Model Y MIC delivered in 2021.
Are you aware that a total of only 218K EV SUVs were sold across all manufacturers in China in 2020? https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4...sales-in-china - "I cannot possibly convince myself that an estimate of more than 120K is even remotely reasonable." Good luck!
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01-21-2021 , 11:44 PM
China has almost (maybe more now?) a million EV charging stations scattered across the country and the CCP is hyper committed to building EV infrastructure (it's one of the reasons they basically gave Elon Musk his factory for free). This makes EV a rapidly expanding market in China.

Tesla is the leader in EV in China, today, now. It's not close. The only competitor of note is Nio, who, despite their best efforts, somehow just doesn't have Tesla's brand cachet.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-22-2021 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
China has almost (maybe more now?) a million EV charging stations scattered across the country and the CCP is hyper committed to building EV infrastructure (it's one of the reasons they basically gave Elon Musk his factory for free). This makes EV a rapidly expanding market in China.

Tesla is the leader in EV in China, today, now. It's not close. The only competitor of note is Nio, who, despite their best efforts, somehow just doesn't have Tesla's brand cachet.
Read the article. All of the EV growth in China is coming from tier 3 cities and rural areas--they won't be buying Teslas anytime soon. And Tesla is not the EV leader--that would be SGMW with their $5K, 100-mile range Hongguang Mini (link).
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-22-2021 , 02:06 PM
The little data that I've seen suggests the bulk of the registration is surrounding Shenzhen, Shanghai, and other urban centers. Can you share the data you're seeing?

At any rate even third tier cities in China have millions of people. Some of the "third tier" cities have more people than NYC and Los Angeles would be in the tier 3.

A side note: Beijing, the municipality, by itself has about as many people as Florida. Like people don't seem to quite understand how massive and dense Chinese cities are. They make many "large" European cities look pastoral.
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