Don't worry he's not going to have to compete with Apple anytime soon.

Eventually yes. But as long as he keeps growing 50%/year even without showing any products I will be happy. Looking forward to HVAC, EVTOL, RV and Yacht.

They only grew 36% in 2020, and that's with a brand new China factory, Model Y launch, and numerous price cuts / year-end incentives. Even with all that, ex-China deliveries were up only 7%. Exponential growth!

And also covid-19.

Q4 2019: 112095
Q4 2020: 180570

+61%

Doubt competition will show similar green figures...

I am gonna take the over on 800k deliveries for 2021. Wanna take the under?

Sure, though of course anything is possible if they slash prices enough. What do you predict for profitability?

VW Group will also sell >500K EVs this year. What multiple do they trade at? Why aren’t you slobbing on their knob too?

They wont have level 5 automated this year and a battery monopoly. Duh

https://www.jdpower.com/business/pre...ex-nevxi-study

JD Power initial quality survey of new EVs in China.

"SAIC Volkswagen ranks highest in NEV new-vehicle quality among all brands in the PHEV segment, with 105 PP100. BMW ranks second with 108 PP100. NIO ranks highest among all brands in the BEV segment with 109 PP100, followed by Tesla (113 PP100) and ORA (129 PP100)."

For reference, average for vehicles overall in 2020 is 121.
https://www.jdpower.com/business/pre...lity-study-vds

"Overall vehicle dependability declines slightly: The overall vehicle dependability this year is 121 PP100 (7 PP100 increase from 2019). Complaints increase in most categories except vehicle exterior, with the highest increase in engine/ transmission (+3.5 PP100)."

Same article says luxury segment average is 104 and mass market average is 124.

So I think it's fair to say Tesla is a little more unreliable than traditional luxury vehicles and some of its EV competitors but not dramatically so. Considering the circumstances (Covid, aggressive delivery goals, and timing), I think being just below average in quality is pretty damn impressive.

That’s a tricky question. $6-16B, probably on the lower part of the range.

VW might sell 500k pure EVs to dealerships, but to customers I am not sure.

Do VWs do well in Germany?

It doesn't seem like a popular brand in the US.

Given the choice between a Tesla and a VW assuming the prices are relatively close in the future I can't imagine anyone making VW their first choice.

...

VW Group includes Audi, Porsche, etc. They're the largest automaker in the world, selling over 10M cars a year.

But yes, the VW brand alone crushed Tesla in EV sales in Europe for 2020, and they're just getting started:

Ahh thanks I didn't realize that. Audis and Porsche are definitely popular.

The 2022 Volkwagen Microbus aka ID Buzz would be my first choice and there isn't a close 2nd.

Do you think they'll do a Scooby-Doo reboot?

Of course, and one of the reasons I'd want one is because it can fit Great Dane size dogs.

You think Porsche sells more cars than WV?

lol stonck goes up only

Did you mean VW? I thought Porsche was under VW.

What a great sequence.

Lol what? For 2019 (2020 numbers aren't even out yet):

* VW Group operating profit was €17.0 billion (source)
* Tesla had an operating loss of $69 million (source)

Your head is so far up Elon's **** the Mars farts must've done some serious brain damage. Best of luck.

(You are right though in the sense that they likely juiced 2020 numbers with all sorts of accounting shenanigans.. pulling forward regulatory credits, cutting warranty reserves, slashing SG&A expenses. So you likely will have your first annual "profit". Congrats!)

That graph was so stupid I couldn't even bring myself to say anything about it

Yes. VW passenger cars is not VW Group, 2019 VW vs 2020 Tesla, SBC was rather larger for Elon 2020 and 2020Q4 was estimated based on the_accountant(who was a very good track record of estimating these numbers). But other than that it is pretty useful measurement of where Tesla was last year compared to were VW passenger cars were. I like both apples and oranges.

What is true about Tesla now that wasn't also true in early March '20 ?
They were guiding for 500k units then. They hit their number. They were going to launch Model Y and they pulled off the launch. But what fundamentals have changed in the last 9 months that strengthens the bull case by 10x ?

We found out that they aren't actually a car company. You can see on last years graph where that info became public knowledge and it was only up from there.

Congrats to Elon being the world’s the richest person!

Battery day, FSD Beta progress and Covid not stopping them from hitting goal. Wallstreet starting to believe the bulls. Pretty much the market believes that the probability of Tesla hitting their target 20M vehicles year 2030 is ~10x higher than what they thought 1 year ago.

Here is a nice recap of battery day: