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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

12-29-2020 , 11:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
they are already exporting a ton.
This has to be by choice. I know for certain specialty importers (the kind of people that import stuff like Lambos) are still selling Model 3/S/Ys imported from US/Europe at huge premiums in China.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-29-2020 , 07:29 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-y...-idUSKBN293132

$630-880 million lithium hydroxide at current spot price of $7,600/ton would yield 100,000 tons of LiOH. 29% of 100 million kg is 29 million kg of Li. At 10 kg/car that yields 2.9 million cars, or 600,000 car batteries per year. With such a big contract, Tesla must be getting more Li/$, so this is definitely a lower limit.

Plus whatever suppliers are doing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
i never said any of those things. i'm just asking questions. you don't need to answer if you don't want to.

but in your 10m cars/year in 2030 bull case you'd probably need to sell 2-3m cars/year in china. runrate right now isn't even 10% of that and they are already exporting a ton.
Jan-nov 2019-2020 they grew deliveries in China 349%(iirc, feel free to correct me) YoY. More would have been better sure, but as an investor I am happy with the growth rate. Next year I am gonna guess 100%. Their current lineup is not really tailored for the Chinese market or for the European market either. Y should sell better both in EU/CN, but a smaller car would sell better. It takes time to grow from zero to 500k and it will take like another decade to grow to 10-30M. The important stuff is sustained high growth rate, then eventually you grow very large.

Last edited by heltok; 12-29-2020 at 07:47 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-31-2020 , 12:44 PM
Rippppppping into the new year. How do I do a poll? Tsla higher or lower at 2021 close?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-31-2020 , 07:02 PM


This video sums up how I feel about buying Tesla cars (not the stock itself necessarily) pretty well. I recently just bought a certified Acura MDX. My wife and I were keenly aware of Tesla's flaws but the test drive experience was pleasant and impressive enough we still arrived at the conclusion "If only our apartment's garage had chargers, Teslas would be perfect for us."

For reference, we're New Yorker that don[t need to drive day-to-day. My wife walks to work and I take the subway. The car gets us out of the city and for weekly (2 or 3 during covid, but realistically weekly) grocery trips to CostCo or suburban malls that are less crowded than NYC.

I was concerned enough about range, I plotted a bunch of hypothetical trips, including one all the way down to Miami. We came to the conclusion it would be trivially easy to just take a 0.5 to 1 hour break after driving for like 5 or 6 hours. There are enough supercharging stations it's really not a problem, especially along the I-95 corridor.

As far as the stock itself is concerned, I think we're getting closer to a critical mass of EV charging station than I expected just a few years ago. I wouldn't be surprised if EV sales growth accelerates over the next ~5 years and I wouldn't be surprised if EV sales overtake ICE sales within 10 years.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-31-2020 , 07:59 PM


https://www.businessinsider.com/elon...ergy?r=US&IR=T
Musk: There is a dangerous transition point. Where self-driving is good, but it occasionally has issues, because people maybe get too comfortable, and then they stop paying attention like they should. And then 99.9% of the time, it's good, 1 in 1000 times it's not. And you really need more like six nines, like a 99.9999 sort of reliability.
Döpfner: But any prediction about by when it will be the new normal?
Musk: I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-31-2020 , 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
Musk: I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%.
L-O-F-L. Do we really need to trot out references to all the others things Musk was 100% confident of over the years that never materialized?

I'm REALLY, EXTREMELY confident (that's even more than just extremely confident) that there's a 0% chance of Tesla having a level 5 self driving car in 2021. Happy to wager on it.

Last edited by WotPeed; 12-31-2020 at 10:06 PM. Reason: removed youtube link
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-01-2021 , 05:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WotPeed
L-O-F-L. Do we really need to trot out references to all the others things Musk was 100% confident of over the years that never materialized?

I'm REALLY, EXTREMELY confident (that's even more than just extremely confident) that there's a 0% chance of Tesla having a level 5 self driving car in 2021. Happy to wager on it.
I think there is a greater than 0% chance. I am willing to take your wager. What odds are you offering? 10,000 to 1? How much bitcoin are you willing to wager? If we can find an escrow or smart contract, I am willing to wager a a very large amount as long as you offer appealing odds. Some of the dick riding bulls itt would probably want action too. If you really think there is a 0% chance then it is free money for you, no matter what the odds are. Also, we probably need an oracle that can determine whether or not it has been reached.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-01-2021 , 12:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BT2
I think there is a greater than 0% chance. I am willing to take your wager. What odds are you offering? 10,000 to 1? How much bitcoin are you willing to wager? If we can find an escrow or smart contract, I am willing to wager a a very large amount as long as you offer appealing odds. Some of the dick riding bulls itt would probably want action too. If you really think there is a 0% chance then it is free money for you, no matter what the odds are. Also, we probably need an oracle that can determine whether or not it has been reached.
Odds that you consider appealing probably wouldn't be worth the hassle for me. I'm not risking $10,000 to make $1 no matter my confidence level. I'd probably give 10-1 but I'll have to think about how much I'll be willing to risk.

Before we try to hammer out the details, let's address how the winner will be determined. You say we probably need an oracle, I disagree. I think the claim of "level 5 self driving" means that at least one government agency here in the USA has approved Tesla vehicles for driverless operation on public roads. No back up safety drivers, in fact a vehicle with no steering wheel at all. Isn't that what Level 5 means?

If I've misunderstood what Level 5 SD means then I may have to rethink my offer. If not then I'm confident discussing further.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-01-2021 , 01:55 PM
Year long bets with high odds are just horrible.

Musk said in that video that he expects people in Teslas no longer needing to pay attention by Q2 & convicing regulators of this in some jurisdictions by the end of the year. If you believe that, you are just crazy. Anyone trying to be a realistic/reasonable bull should really immediately see this is Musk being Musk.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-01-2021 , 07:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bbfg
Year long bets with high odds are just horrible.
Yeah, I'm sure it wouldn't be worth the trouble and frankly I'm sorry I brought it up. But I'll entertain the idea for a bit.

Quote:
Musk said in that video that he expects people in Teslas no longer needing to pay attention by Q2 & convicing regulators of this in some jurisdictions by the end of the year.
I haven't even watched the video yet, I was just responding to the quote about how Musk was 100% sure about achieving level 5 by the end of the year. If your quote above is what he said verbatim then of course that leaves him some wiggle room. What does "convincing regulators" mean? Convincing people is irrelevant. The only thing that would matter in terms of a wager is regulation or legislation going into effect allowing driverless Teslas before Jan 1, 2022. I stand by my assertion that there is a 0% chance of that happening. The exact wording of the wager would of course have to be refined.

Quote:
If you believe that, you are just crazy. Anyone trying to be a realistic/reasonable bull should really immediately see this is Musk being Musk.
Yes, even Musk knows there's no way it's feasible to have his cars (or any cars) approved for driverless operation this year. They're not even close to the 0th step required to begin the process of getting approval for such a thing. I'm not even aware of any states that have an approval process in place for such a thing but I don't pay close attention so I could be wrong here.

The whole thing is silly and I'll probably just drop it but if someone REALLY wants to propose a bet regarding this I guess I'll play along for a bit.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-01-2021 , 07:58 PM
There is so much room for semantics. What does needing mean exactly? When is a system lvl 5? Am I even a lvl 5 driver as I cannot drive in India and struggle with some cars in some streets in Italy.

Imo betting here is stupid, even trying to convince others that we are/were right is stupid. Best to make prediction with yourself to try to learn over time.

In end of 2021 I think:
*Teslas will be able to drive >90% of rides without driver intervention in most American states in 2021.
*Some drivers will feel that they basically never need to intervene(which I will call lvl5)
*Tesla will present some dataset to some regulators that in Tesla’s opinion statistically proves that lives would be saved if Tesla were allowed to operate a driverless taxiservice.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-01-2021 , 09:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
In end of 2021 I think:
*Teslas will be able to drive >90% of rides without driver intervention in most American states in 2021.
*Some drivers will feel that they basically never need to intervene(which I will call lvl5)
*Tesla will present some dataset to some regulators that in Tesla’s opinion statistically proves that lives would be saved if Tesla were allowed to operate a driverless taxiservice.
None of these things will happen in 2021.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-01-2021 , 10:08 PM
There is zero chance Tesla gets any state to agree to let Tesla auto pilot drive itself without human oversight in 2021, even if Tesla demonstrates its autopilot is level 5+, safer Han humans, and safer than anything else around.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-02-2021 , 12:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maxtower
None of these things will happen in 2021.
Fair enough! Let’s wait and find out! =)
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-02-2021 , 01:03 AM
My 2021 predictions:
- Market share down in all regions
- S/X deliveries down
- Model 3 (ex-China) deliveries down
- More price cuts
- No Cybertruck, Semi, or Roadster
- No level 4/5 FSD
- Net loss for the year
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-02-2021 , 10:40 AM
Numbers are out, Tesla failed to reach 500k deliveries:
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/t...ion-deliveries
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-02-2021 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
My 2021 predictions:
- Market share down in all regions
- S/X deliveries down
- Model 3 (ex-China) deliveries down
- More price cuts
- No Cybertruck, Semi, or Roadster
- No level 4/5 FSD
- Net loss for the year
2 capital raises
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-02-2021 , 11:32 AM
Looks like price cut in China already
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-02-2021 , 11:33 AM
My point-to-the-fence prediction is elon steps down as ceo and sells a shitload of stock after earnings "to focus on getting us to mars"
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-02-2021 , 02:10 PM
I'm reading 65k in q4 in China. That's pretty good!
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-02-2021 , 07:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xkf
Looks like price cut in China already
MIC Model Y prices are revised as follows: ¥339.900 reduced from ¥488,000 for AWD LR and ¥369,900 reduced from ¥535,000 for Performance variant. Deliveries will start in Jan.

Fwiw not a Single Model Y was sold with a higher price or even ordered. It was a placeholder price. Now it sells for ~US price which indicates that Tesla has been able to localize the production. But ~US price is a lot lower than expected so it seems demand is high (rumor says 100k orders in 10h) and malls seems busy:
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/...94791555182592

I am gonna guess 200k Model Y MIC delivered in 2021.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-02-2021 , 10:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WotPeed
...



Yes, even Musk knows there's no way it's feasible to have his cars (or any cars) approved for driverless operation this year. They're not even close to the 0th step required to begin the process of getting approval for such a thing. I'm not even aware of any states that have an approval process in place for such a thing but I don't pay close attention so I could be wrong here.
...
What are your thoughts on what Waymo is doing in Phoenix?

I could absolutely see them going full driverless in an area like Scottsdale and letting them roam the very closed downtown area which is highly serviced by people driving around golf carts and taxi's, to run people from place to place.

Cap the speeds at 25mph to limit accident potential and let them loose for downtown trips only, just like the army of golf carts currently servicing the area.

What issue do you see with that?

October 8, 2020

Waymo is opening its fully driverless service to the general public in Phoenix

Waymo Ramping Up Fully Driverless Operations in Phoenix Area


Last edited by Cuepee; 01-02-2021 at 11:00 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-03-2021 , 12:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xkf
My point-to-the-fence prediction is elon steps down as ceo and sells a shitload of stock after earnings "to focus on getting us to mars"
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...a_20200707.htm

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tesla Proxy Statement

Summary of 2019 Executive Compensation Program

The following is a summary of some of the key points of our 2019 executive compensation program:

• Tesla continues to emphasize structuring compensation incentives to reward our named executive officers based on performance.

• Equity awards weigh heavily in our named executive officers’ total compensation, including awards that vest upon the achievement of clear and measurable milestones. Since these awards increase in value as our stock price increases (and in the case of stock option awards, have no value unless our stock price increases following their grant), our named executive officers’ incentives are closely aligned with the long-term interests of our stockholders. In particular, 2019 was a record-setting year for Tesla’s annual revenues, year-end cash balance, vehicle production and deliveries, and energy storage deployment, and we further laid the foundation for the future with international manufacturing operations, the unveiling of Model Y and Cybertruck, and the launch of the third generation of Solar Roof. During 2019, we granted certain of our named executive officers equity awards for promotions to their roles or as part of our ongoing compensation review and alignment process.

• Tesla has no cash bonus program for any of our named executive officers and generally does not provide any perquisites or tax reimbursements to our named executive officers that are not available to other employees. No named executive officer has any severance or change of control arrangement, other than the vesting of the 10-year performance-based stock option award granted to Elon Musk in January 2018 (the “2018 CEO Performance Award”) based solely upon the achievement of market capitalization milestones as measured at the time of a change in control of Tesla. See “Executive Compensation—Compensation Discussion and Analysis—Chief Executive Officer Compensation—2018 CEO Performance Award” below for more details on the 2018 CEO Performance Award.

• Each named executive officer is also employed at will and is expected to demonstrate exceptional personal performance in order to continue serving as a member of the executive team.

Elon Musk, our Chief Executive Officer, historically earned a base salary that reflected the applicable minimum wage requirements under California law, and he was subject to income taxes based on such base salary. However, he has never accepted his salary. Commencing in May 2019 at Mr. Musk’s request, we eliminated altogether the earning and accrual of this base salary. Consequently, 100% of Mr. Musk’s future compensation is at-risk in the form of the remaining unvested stock options under the 2018 CEO Performance Award and the 10-year performance-based stock option award granted to Elon Musk in August 2012 (the “2012 CEO Performance Award”).

In particular, the 2018 CEO Performance Award is comprised of 12 equal tranches, each vesting only upon the achievement of a market capitalization milestone matched to one of eight revenue-based operational milestones or eight Adjusted EBITDA-based operational milestones, all of which were viewed as difficult hurdles at the time of grant. While our stockholders benefit from each incremental increase in Tesla’s performance and stock price, aligning their interests with Mr. Musk’s incentives, the tranches under the 2018 CEO Performance Award vest only upon the full achievement of specific milestones, making it even more challenging for Mr. Musk to realize value from such increases. As of the date of this proxy statement, one of the 12 tranches under this award has vested and become exercisable, subject to Mr. Musk’s payment of the exercise price of $350.02 per share and the minimum five-year holding period generally applicable to any shares he acquires upon exercise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tesla Proxy Statement
Compensation Philosophy

As the world’s first vertically integrated sustainable energy company, our mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. We design, develop, manufacture and sell high-performance, fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and also install and maintain such energy systems and sell solar electricity. To achieve our goals, we have designed, and intend to modify as necessary, our compensation and benefits program and philosophy, to attract, retain and incentivize talented, deeply qualified and committed executive officers who share our philosophy and desire to work toward these goals. We believe compensation incentives for executive officers should promote the success of our company and motivate them to pursue corporate objectives. We have put an emphasis on structuring compensation incentives so as to reward clear, easily measured performance goals that closely align their incentives with the long-term interests of our stockholders. Further, we have sought to harmonize the compensation structures of our other employees to conform to our overall compensation philosophy.

Our current compensation programs reflect our startup origins in that they consist primarily of salary and equity awards. Consistent with our historical compensation philosophy, we do not currently provide an annual cash bonus program or any severance provisions for continued cash payments or other benefits upon termination of employment with us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tesla Proxy Statement
2018 CEO Performance Award

Early in 2017, with the 2012 CEO Performance Award heading to substantial completion after having helped Tesla grow its market capitalization to over $55 billion in just over five years, the independent members of the Board began preliminary discussions regarding how to continue to incentivize Mr. Musk to lead Tesla through the next phase of its development. In January 2018, following more than six months of careful analysis and development led by the Compensation Committee, with participation by every independent Board member, the help of Compensia, a national compensation consulting firm, and engagement with and feedback from our largest institutional stockholders, the Board granted the 2018 CEO Performance Award to Mr. Musk. Such grant was subject to approval by a majority of the total votes of Tesla common stock not owned by Mr. Musk or Kimbal Musk cast at a meeting of the stockholders to approve the 2018 CEO Performance Award. On March 21, 2018, such approval was obtained, with approximately 73% of the votes cast by such disinterested shares voting in favor of the 2018 CEO Performance Award.

The 2018 CEO Performance Award is comprised of a 10-year maximum term stock option to purchase 20,264,042 shares of Tesla’s common stock, divided equally among 12 separate tranches that are each equivalent to 1% of the issued and outstanding shares of Tesla’s common stock at the time of grant, at an exercise price of $350.02 per share. Each of the 12 vesting tranches of the 2018 CEO Performance Award vests upon certification by the Board that both (i) the market capitalization milestone for such tranche, which begins at $100 billion for the first tranche and increases by increments of $50 billion thereafter, and (ii) any one of the following 8 operational milestones focused on revenue or 8 operational milestones focused on profitability, has been met:


Last edited by despacito; 01-03-2021 at 12:50 AM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-03-2021 , 02:39 AM
At least they beat this prediction:
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-03-2021 , 06:04 PM
Eventually Elon is going to have to show a product. As time ticks on he's going to have to mass produce these semi trucks and cyber. He will also be competing with this potential apple car and VW mini bus in 2023 and 4. Not being a bear just being realistic.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote

      
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