Quote:
Originally Posted by bbfg
Year long bets with high odds are just horrible.
Yeah, I'm sure it wouldn't be worth the trouble and frankly I'm sorry I brought it up. But I'll entertain the idea for a bit.
Quote:
Musk said in that video that he expects people in Teslas no longer needing to pay attention by Q2 & convicing regulators of this in some jurisdictions by the end of the year.
I haven't even watched the video yet, I was just responding to the quote about how Musk was 100% sure about achieving level 5 by the end of the year. If your quote above is what he said verbatim then of course that leaves him some wiggle room. What does "convincing regulators" mean? Convincing people is irrelevant. The only thing that would matter in terms of a wager is regulation or legislation going into effect allowing driverless Teslas before Jan 1, 2022. I stand by my assertion that there is a 0% chance of that happening. The exact wording of the wager would of course have to be refined.
Quote:
If you believe that, you are just crazy. Anyone trying to be a realistic/reasonable bull should really immediately see this is Musk being Musk.
Yes, even Musk knows there's no way it's feasible to have his cars (or any cars) approved for driverless operation this year. They're not even close to the 0th step required to begin the process of getting approval for such a thing. I'm not even aware of any states that have an approval process in place for such a thing but I don't pay close attention so I could be wrong here.
The whole thing is silly and I'll probably just drop it but if someone REALLY wants to propose a bet regarding this I guess I'll play along for a bit.