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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

12-23-2020 , 09:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I don't short, but I'd strongly recommend it here at $660. We'd have to be in the mother of all ****** markets (far beyond '29 or the tech bubble or what we've seen so far) for Tesla not be a lot lower next year, and I think there's little chance we are
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
You realize demand death happened and we made a fortune short Tesla on these theses, right? That the shorts made more than the longs and with far less risk?

You realize that Tesla was weeks away from bankruptcy - according to the CEO himself. The thesis was excellent and profitable. Just because Musk pulled out a hail Mary giant fraud, where he claimed:

1. 1 million autonomous robotaxis in 2020 on the roads, pulling in $10 billion in profit for Tesla.
2. Fully Self Driving feature complete by the end of 2019
3. Tesla cars will appreciate 5x in 2020

And had a bunch of losers believe him and buy up the stock and his cars, doesn't mean the thesis was good. That's all that happened - that and vast sums of Chinese money right when he needed it (I'd guess for US classified SpaceX secrets).

His situation got so desperate he was calling anyone with money begging for a meeting to buy him out before it all collapsed. Even Apple, who Musk wanted to sell it to for less than 1/10th of its current value:



Where do you think he went after he was turned down by everyone sane and near collapse? China is where. What did he have to sell for their billions in fresh funds to keep him alive? SpaceX secrets. Nothing else. And indeed, after the China funds and demand recovery from deep lows, I advised to cover at the bottom and even get long (at $39). The thesis was great and the exit was great.

If you had a thesis that "Musk's giant Fully Self Driving fraud will convince people to buy up his stock in a giant bubble", then congrats. Otherwise you had a horrible thesis and got lucky.

If there's one thing the shorts have gotten wrong, it's the magnitude of this bubble since corona lows (which we 10 bagged on the way down, thank you very much). Truly extraordinary and I thought there were some good shorts at much lower prices than now. But like pets.com, Enron and other trash, fraud creates insane bubbles and the bigger the trash the more it runs when money is being printed hand over fist and retails are pouring into the market.
You're just tragic at this point TS.

I have no doubt that the biggest Tesla bear on earth has made fortunes shorting a stock that has gone to the moon and where he has been demonstrably wrong about almost everything again and again. I'm a believer.

I will say it's been interesting to see you hop from one conspiracy theory to the next in order to justify some of the Tesla performance. Moved on from the cartel operating out of freemont onto Space X selling military secrets to China. What's next? Maybe Elvis has been buying all these Model Y's along with Tupac and Biggie from their secret underground illuminati hangout. Only possible answer IMO.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 03:29 AM
1. 1 million autonomous robotaxis in 2020 on the roads, pulling in $10 billion in profit for Tesla.
2. Fully Self Driving feature complete by the end of 2019
3. Tesla cars will appreciate 5x in 2020


1. IIRC he said capable of
2. We don’t know if development build was feature complete or not in 2019. But it seems that beta release to customers in 2020 is feature complete at least.
3. Don’t think he said that.

I find this semantics bending pretty tiring. It makes it possible to justify whatever position one has both for or against Tesla. So what if they are one year late or not, they are still far ahead of Toyota, VW etc with regards to how much revenue they get for their software per vehicle, which is what matters to justify valuations.

I will repeat it. 2M vehicles per year, $10k software upgrade, 50% take rate = $10B profit per year. P/E of 50 -> $500B market cap. This is a huge deal even ignoring robotaxi potential.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 04:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by t3hbandit
You're just tragic at this point TS.

I have no doubt that the biggest Tesla bear on earth has made fortunes shorting a stock that has gone to the moon and where he has been demonstrably wrong about almost everything again and again. I'm a believer.
I mean, you literally saw me make 10 baggers just this year in entries and exits.

I've been demonstrably right on nearly everything fundamental on Tesla, far more right than the predictions of people like heltok, which have comical fails (he thought they'd be doing billions in profit by this time on energy, solar roofs, etc). I'll quote some. And I've been far more correct than any of Elon's predictions.

Quote:
I will say it's been interesting to see you hop from one conspiracy theory to the next in order to justify some of the Tesla performance. Moved on from the cartel operating out of freemont onto Space X selling military secrets to China. What's next? Maybe Elvis has been buying all these Model Y's along with Tupac and Biggie from their secret underground illuminati hangout. Only possible answer IMO.
You seem like you're so silly that you can't separate one bear from another. Where did I ever say "there's a cartel operating out of Fremont"?

You do realize that Musk was desperate, near bankruptcy (his own words), and shopping around for cash/to sell the business. He openly says above that above! Can you read? Tesla was such a turd that Apple wouldn't even meet with him at 1/10th of the current price. Then suddenly endless billions in Chinese cash became available to finance his verge of bankruptcy (again, Musk's own words) operation. Why and how?

Last edited by ToothSayer; 12-24-2020 at 04:49 AM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 04:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
1. 1 million autonomous robotaxis in 2020 on the roads, pulling in $10 billion in profit for Tesla.
2. Fully Self Driving feature complete by the end of 2019
3. Tesla cars will appreciate 5x in 2020


1. IIRC he said capable of
2. We don’t know if development build was feature complete or not in 2019. But it seems that beta release to customers in 2020 is feature complete at least.
3. Don’t think he said that.
God this is so pathetic. Yes he said all of that, it was pure fraud, and people believing that fraud is why Tesla soared out of its near bankruptcy (his words, not mine). It was a fabulous con. And no he has delivered none of it.

A buggy, dangerous level 3 isn't "Fully Self Driving" - by which meant capable of running autonomous robotaxis for huge profit. This year. Right now. He claimed there would be a million of them. And people bought the con.
Quote:
I find this semantics bending pretty tiring. It makes it possible to justify whatever position one has both for or against Tesla. So what if they are one year late or not, they are still far ahead of Toyota, VW etc with regards to how much revenue they get for their software per vehicle, which is what matters to justify valuations.
LOL

Quote:
I will repeat it. 2M vehicles per year, $10k software upgrade, 50% take rate = $10B profit per year. P/E of 50 -> $500B market cap. This is a huge deal even ignoring robotaxi potential.
Shall we look at your previous predictions (from 2017) for 2020 revenue and profit? t3hbandit opened the door for that. They're pretty ridiculously comical with the benefit of hindsight. Absolutely zero chance of happening but you thought it was possible, even probable. You were dead wrong on Tesla revenue and profit, at a comical level. Millions of bulls like you believing his pure deliberate cynical frauds (FSD and others) and absurd price targets bid the stock up into a giant bubble, but the reality of what is achieved has been awful. Only the stock price has been correct.

Meanwhile, none of the bulls were here at $190 pre split ($39) saying to buy Tesla. Only I was.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 12-24-2020 at 04:55 AM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 05:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
Feel free to review them if you have owned/driven them. I have not, but I doubt that I would want to trade in my Model X for one. They lack autopilot and supercharger network, which is the two features I care about the most. If you had owned a 2020 Tesla for a few weeks I think you would agree.

When I was looking to buy an EV in August of 2019, the Taycan wasnt an option for me due to only getting a legit 170 miles/charge at the time.

The Mustang wasnt available. Even if it was, Im not buying an lol Mustang. Plus, the first year model of these cars are a stay away for me. They are bound to have kinks just like the Tesla.

Tesla has been producing legit electric cars for over ten years now. The model S is probably the highest rated car of all time for customer satisfaction. (I find it funny that people keep harping on the Model 3’s temporary minor quality control issues, of which they remedied soon after the bad consumer report. My model 3 was made after that and its been flawless so far.)

And like I said, the Etron shouldnt even be considered. Its a glorified hybrid.

Last edited by WorldBoFree; 12-24-2020 at 05:35 AM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
I find it funny that people keep harping on the Model 3’s temporary minor quality control issues, of which they remedied soon after the bad consumer report. My model 3 was made after that and its been flawless so far.)
"temporary minor quality control issues"

https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/25/2...quality-survey

But JD Power is probably just a bunch of short-selling pedos. Or, you know, it's a cult.

I mean, there's a freaking app just to inspect new Teslas for defects on delivery:

Last edited by n00b590; 12-24-2020 at 12:46 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 12:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I mean, you literally saw me make 10 baggers just this year in entries and exits.

I've been demonstrably right on nearly everything fundamental on Tesla, far more right than the predictions of people like heltok, which have comical fails (he thought they'd be doing billions in profit by this time on energy, solar roofs, etc). I'll quote some. And I've been far more correct than any of Elon's predictions.


You seem like you're so silly that you can't separate one bear from another. Where did I ever say "there's a cartel operating out of Fremont"?

You do realize that Musk was desperate, near bankruptcy (his own words), and shopping around for cash/to sell the business. He openly says above that above! Can you read? Tesla was such a turd that Apple wouldn't even meet with him at 1/10th of the current price. Then suddenly endless billions in Chinese cash became available to finance his verge of bankruptcy (again, Musk's own words) operation. Why and how?
I mean I literally haven't.

Right on everything except for all the posts I highlighted which I found in 30mins of browsing this thread for a a laugh.

"No viable path to profitability even at 45k".... Right on everything bud.

You clearly have mental health issues and should seek help.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
"temporary minor quality control issues"

https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/25/2...quality-survey

But JD Power is probably just a bunch of short-selling pedos. Or, you know, it's a cult.

I mean, there's a freaking app just to inspect new Teslas for defects on delivery:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-gm...-idUKKBN27T2LO

I took one look at the JD power survey and it was beyond hilarious. Best cars in the world are Dodge/Chevrolet/Ram/Buick/Cadillac.

Quote:
J.D. Power’s 2020 IQS involved 31 automotive brands and, for the first time, Tesla – which is not ranked due to the fact owners living in some U.S. states could not take part in the study due to permissions not being granted in those jurisdictions. Regardless, J.D. Power noted that Tesla earned the poorest quality score and is included here because the sample size of 1,248 is statistically valid.

Presented below are the five poorest-ranked nameplates in the 2020 Initial Quality Study.


Mercedes Benz
Volvo
Audi
Land Rover

Who would want a Mercedes Benz when you could own a RAM
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 01:59 PM
I was always of the understanding that JD Power whatever was a bull sheit marketing thing for US cars.

People really believe it's like a thing?

Whenever I heard that it was like the equivalent of

The Big Mac scores a perfect 5 stars for the 30th year in a row according to the Hamburglar power rankings!
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 03:22 PM
Don't like JD Power? How about Consumer Reports?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 04:34 PM
Yeah they at least seem legitimate.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 06:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
Pretty sure Apple is in the same boat. I'd be surprised to see much more than a single physical prototype being shown off at a tech trade show or something in 2024.

Or maybe it will just be a CG rendering in a press release.
I doubt they will even release a CH rendering by then. I think this is more of an autonomous vehicle play than an EV car play for Apple. With Google and Amazon already working on autonomous cars they probably felt compelled to get in on it as a hedge in case the tech actually advances enough to make it a reality in the near future. Plus, with the added perceived value of them working on a self driving car means the added cash burn doesn't hurt their MC

It just doesn't make much sense for them to spend a ton of capital on a low margin business that could possibly damage their reputation if there are production issues.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-24-2020 , 08:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
Don't like JD Power? How about Consumer Reports?
If one digs a little deeper the serious flaws that CR finds are ”a hair was found in the paint” and ”panel gaps”. Sure these are not great, but I would rather have those flaws than ”outputs toxic gases”, ”limited auto emergency breaking” or ”heave metal block in the crumple zone”, but that’s just me. My X had no panel gaps that I could see and I didn’t see any paint issues. But I am not super picky about these things.
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12-25-2020 , 03:14 PM
Two more stories out just today...

"While the buyers of some electric vehicles have had to accept certain flaws, Palmer says that this isn’t acceptable for Ford. 'The doors fit properly, the plastics and other materials color-match, the bumpers don’t fall off, the roof doesn’t come off when you wash it, the door handles don’t get stuck in cold weather. ...'" - https://www.autoblog.com/2020/12/25/...darren-palmer/



"temporary minor quality control issues". But at least it doesn't output toxic gases, bro!
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-25-2020 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
Don't like JD Power? How about Consumer Reports?
Do you guys even read the **** you link here before you post it?

Quote:
Porsche was the highest ranking European brand at ninth, but down five spots from last year.
Quote:
Audi was unchanged at 14th
Quote:
Ram sat at number seven
Quote:
Buick, which jumped 14 spots to fourth
Add Porsche to the list of cars RAM is now outperforming.

Spoiler alert if poll a bunch of yanks on cars they bend over and grab their ankles for American brands. Colour me shocked . USA #1.


Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
If one digs a little deeper the serious flaws that CR finds are ”a hair was found in the paint” and ”panel gaps”. Sure these are not great, but I would rather have those flaws than ”outputs toxic gases”, ”limited auto emergency breaking” or ”heave metal block in the crumple zone”, but that’s just me. My X had no panel gaps that I could see and I didn’t see any paint issues. But I am not super picky about these things.
Tesla delivers 500k cars in a year and literally 1 person reported hair in paint.
Checkmate Bears.

Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
Two more stories out just today...

"While the buyers of some electric vehicles have had to accept certain flaws, Palmer says that this isn’t acceptable for Ford. 'The doors fit properly, the plastics and other materials color-match, the bumpers don’t fall off, the roof doesn’t come off when you wash it, the door handles don’t get stuck in cold weather. ...'" - https://www.autoblog.com/2020/12/25/...darren-palmer/






"temporary minor quality control issues". But at least it doesn't output toxic gases, bro!
Ford's Global director says mean things about Tesla, I'm still waiting for your point, did you expect him to direct his customers there?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-25-2020 , 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by t3hbandit
Spoiler alert if poll a bunch of yanks on cars they bend over and grab their ankles for American brands. Colour me shocked . USA #1.
You should learn more about Consumer Reports before you spout off. If ever there was a self selected bunch of technocrats just waiting to drool over a car company that's working to save the world it's this group. It's amazing they found anything bad to say about Tesla at all.

As for Ram, poor quality light duty trucks just don't survive in the US, much less increase market share.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-25-2020 , 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
You should learn more about Consumer Reports before you spout off. If ever there was a self selected bunch of technocrats just waiting to drool over a car company that's working to save the world it's this group. It's amazing they found anything bad to say about Tesla at all.

As for Ram, poor quality light duty trucks just don't survive in the US, much less increase market share.

The article you posted was referring to the the Model Y.

Consumer reports actually recommended the Model 3.

Last edited by WorldBoFree; 12-25-2020 at 06:45 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-25-2020 , 06:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by t3hbandit
Spoiler alert if poll a bunch of yanks on cars they bend over and grab their ankles for American brands. Colour me shocked . USA #1.
And yet they ranked Tesla--an American brand--second to last? Apparently logic isn't your strong suit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
The article you posted was referring to the the Model X.

Consumer reports actually recommended the Model 3.
No, it's rankings for overall brand reliability.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-26-2020 , 10:03 PM
Nice example of moving goalpost. See Tesla are not producing 210k vehicles in Q4, clearly Tesla is a fraud and insanely overvalued, bears are still right!


Last edited by heltok; 12-26-2020 at 10:09 PM.
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12-28-2020 , 10:38 AM
No demand in China, need to export to India:
(Reuters) -Tesla Inc will come to India early next year, country’s transport minister Nitin Gadkari told national daily the Indian Express on Monday.

The electric-car maker will start with sales and then might look at assembly and manufacturing based on the response, the minister told here the newspaper.

Tesla and the minister’s office could not be reached by Reuters for comment.

India has been keen to reduce its oil dependence and cut down on pollution, but its efforts to promote electric vehicles have been stymied by a lack of investment in manufacturing and infrastructure such as charging stations.

The first model to be launched will be Model 3, the cheapest among Tesla vehicles, with prices starting at over $74,739 (5.5 million Indian rupees), according to a report in the Economic Times on Saturday.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-28-2020 , 10:44 AM
you're saying that as a joke, but they better come up with more places to sell those mic cars to meet the obligations of their chinese loans.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-28-2020 , 07:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
you're saying that as a joke, but they better come up with more places to sell those mic cars to meet the obligations of their chinese loans.
Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines etc. But then they will finally run out of demand.

Quote:
According to the China Passenger Car Association, around 169,000 New Energy Vehicles (BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs) were sold in China in November, 136.5 per cent more than in the same month last year. Most electric vehicles sold last month were SAIC GM Wuling (SGMW), BYD and Tesla.

The three automakers account for nearly half of the country’s NEV sales: SAIC GM Wuling reported 36,070 electric vehicles sold in November, BYD 26,015 units and Tesla 21,604 electric cars. According to media reports, BYD represents a 138 per cent improvement over the same month last year. Almost all NEV sales were all-electric vehicles (25,553 of the aforementioned 26,015 units).

By far the most best-selling electric car in China in November was the Hong Guang Mini EV electric compact car from General Motors’ Chinese joint venture with SAIC and Wuling. 33,094 units of the Mini BEV were sold in November; 13,000 more than in October.

This is now the third month in a row that the small electric car is a best-seller, far outstripping Tesla Model 3 sales, and does not look to change any time soon. Two radical differences between these two models: size and price. The small electric car is just 2.92 metres long and not even 1.50 metres wide and prices for the Hong Guang Mini EV start at 28,800 yuan which is around $4,400 or 3,641 euros. The rapid increase in sales of the small car is also extraordinary. In June this year, when the small electric car first hit the market, just over 1,000 models were sold, each month sales jumped radically upwards. In total, in just six months along more than 85,000 Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV have been sold.
Next Tesla will release Designed in China small EV to fake growth as this model will eat sales from their bigger Model 3/Y. But this is actually good for the company as they lose money on each sold Model 3 anyway.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-29-2020 , 06:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines etc. But then they will finally run out of demand.
why do they even have to export? why don't they sell all the cars they build within china first?
much better margins, bigger and more affluent customer base than all (-singapore) those countries, more government incentives, no tariffs.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-29-2020 , 08:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
why do they even have to export? why don't they sell all the cars they build within china first?
much better margins, bigger and more affluent customer base than all (-singapore) those countries, more government incentives, no tariffs.
Not enough demand in China, Chinese don’t want low quality cars... Zero growth from 2019-2020 and 2021 will be terrible now when demand has been saturated.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-29-2020 , 08:37 AM
i never said any of those things. i'm just asking questions. you don't need to answer if you don't want to.

but in your 10m cars/year in 2030 bull case you'd probably need to sell 2-3m cars/year in china. runrate right now isn't even 10% of that and they are already exporting a ton.
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