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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

12-22-2020 , 12:50 PM
I think an Apple car in 2024 is more believable than Toyota EVs with 100% solid state batteries in 2021.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-22-2020 , 03:07 PM
I thought Toyota was promising just a prototype of a solid state battery car in 2021. Not an actual model for sale at the time.

Probably just some hyped up pre-production car bull****
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12-22-2020 , 03:50 PM
Pretty sure Apple is in the same boat. I'd be surprised to see much more than a single physical prototype being shown off at a tech trade show or something in 2024.

Or maybe it will just be a CG rendering in a press release.
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12-22-2020 , 04:27 PM
I assume most people bashing Tesla cars in the thread have actually never driven one for a week or more...
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12-22-2020 , 05:23 PM
I assume people expressing opinions on Tesla cars have never driven a statistically significant number of them for their entire life cycle...
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12-22-2020 , 05:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mat Cauthon
I assume people expressing opinions on Tesla cars have never driven a statistically significant number of them for their entire life cycle...

Good point, so we should probably just couch all the criticism all together then right?
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12-22-2020 , 05:35 PM
What criticism?
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12-22-2020 , 05:51 PM
so elon tried to sell this for $60b two years ago and tim cook wouldn't even take the meeting.

but now they've eked out just enough quarters of measly gaap profits to get into the sp500 and you can buy your share of it at a $600b valuation. more like $700b+ with diluted shares, but who's counting?

sounds like a steal.
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12-22-2020 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mat Cauthon
What criticism?

Are you trolling? Or not following the conversation?
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12-22-2020 , 07:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
Are you trolling? Or not following the conversation?
I can not find a single post among the last 92 where anybody says anything negative about Tesla cars. Can you please refer me to the posts you are thinking of?
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12-22-2020 , 07:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mat Cauthon
I can not find a single post among the last 92 where anybody says anything negative about Tesla cars. Can you please refer me to the posts you are thinking of?
Look again.... Theres a word that rhymes with "animosity" in there somewhere. Might be hard to find though.
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12-22-2020 , 08:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maxtower
In my opinion, one of tesla's biggest advantages over legacy car makers, is the infotainment software. Other manufacturers can make better suspensions and bodies
Sandy Munro disagrees:


Sure Tesla has had a lot of issues over the last few years. If you are backwardslocking Tesla sure looks overvalued. But forward looking bulls are seeing a lot of improvement to the point that industry experts are starting to admire Tesla and the rate of improvement keeps going on. My 2020 Model X is much better than the Model X from 2018 I drove before. But think I will trade it in for a Model Y from Berlin which should be greatly improved, maybe not same nice interior as X, but a better size for Europe...

Quote:
Apple gained the market cap of GM from a rumor article of a car that doesn't exist
Markets <3
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12-22-2020 , 08:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
Look again.... Theres a word that rhymes with "animosity" in there somewhere. Might be hard to find though.
Ok, right, so we're back to you getting triggered by the word monstrosity, to argue against quality control process issues by driving one car for a week.
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12-22-2020 , 08:19 PM
I'm currently driving a 2000 Camry. Once it stops running or gasoline is no longer available I will be in the market for a TSLA.

Looking forward to a new car!
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12-22-2020 , 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mat Cauthon
Ok, right, so we're back to you getting triggered by the word monstrosity, to argue against quality control process issues by driving one car for a week.
I just thought calling the Tesla a monstrousity was "a bit dramatic" which any rational person would agree.

But I guess you won the internet today anyway, good job.
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12-22-2020 , 09:17 PM
My next car will likely be an EV, and probably a Tesla
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12-23-2020 , 03:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
I'm currently driving a 2000 Camry. Once it stops running or gasoline is no longer available I will be in the market for a TSLA.

Looking forward to a new car!
That car won't die-you'll have to kill it. You're looking at option B
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12-23-2020 , 10:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
I assume most people bashing Tesla cars in the thread have actually never driven one for a week or more...
How many Tesla bulls have driven the e-tron, Taycan, Mustang Mach-E, etc? There are plenty of other EVs that are just as fun to drive.. the only Tesla moat at this point is the cult.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-23-2020 , 10:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
How many Tesla bulls have driven the e-tron, Taycan, Mustang Mach-E, etc? There are plenty of other EVs that are just as fun to drive.. the only Tesla moat at this point is the cult.
Moat is wide and deep. Perusing the forums at an apple fan site about the Musk/Apple story. Seems like the TSLA fans outnumbered the apple fans. So maybe short is too early (Opened a starter position friday afternoon myself). Peak sales is still probably first half of 2021. Downward trajectory begins when QA issues becomes a more widespread MEME and underinvestment in service centers catches up with them. Maybe another nail is when the insurers adjust rates for their high repair expense and long wait times.

I also predict they will need to continue to cut prices to keep the sales growth, and expect on average 2 capital raises annum to fund it. At some point this dilution should be meaningful.
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12-23-2020 , 12:50 PM
Planning to pick up first Tesla car this week. I would have also considered the Mach E, and that still may be a future option, but wanting to try the Tesla first.

Lots of exciting options coming in next few years from all over the place. Actually not impressed by the VW specs, but the price is right. Would like to get back into a truck eventually.

No positions, maybe F
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12-23-2020 , 03:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutella virus
That car won't die-you'll have to kill it. You're looking at option B
I've noticed. I didn't even put oil in it one year and it was fine.
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12-23-2020 , 07:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin
I get this feeling the house of cards that is Tesla is about to collapse.

So I am calling my shot. Grand finale. By end of Q1 2019 Tesla declares bankruptcy and/or Elon is completely out.

(feel free to endlessly mock me if this thread goes on for another 5+ years.)
People type lol too much but I want you to know I legit LOL'd for a good 5 mins at this.

#prayforMrFeel

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
There's two years of backlog in that, so it's apples to oranges. Imagine Mercedes was selling their car at a loss + a $7500 tax credit, taking preorders. They'd be the best selling car for months after a two year wait.


No they didn't. But let's ignore all the accounting tricks and non-payments and "supplier rebate" tricks they pulled, and the great improvement of delivery times (a legitimate but one time boost of $700 million as it's equivalent to reducing inventory by 10 days). Let's say they made $300 million. They did this only while selling a far higher end car to eager first adopters at a huge markup of $63K. That is now long exhausted. Now what? After one times and accounting tricks they lost money with a $27K market per car and a $7.5K tax credit. AND with the Model X and Model S in the mix, which run to large profits at $100K/car. While scaling back all kinds of costs and capex. While SG&A barely moved. Let that sink in.

No they didn't. They already have a $9 billion factory there that they started in 2016:




No they aren't, they've been steady state since hitting 4300/week in July. The factory is now shut down on weekends and they're scaling back production.


Citron isn't a Tesla short. We know this for a fact. He sued Musk last year after he lost millions of dollars trading Tesla long after the "funding secured". His trades are in the filing. He also frequently flips and long and short on crap stocks.
Scaling back production!

Demand Death!

#prayforSayer

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Right. The contract didn't exist. It was a fraudulent PR exercise. The China factory has been announced many times, always with some "billions" number.

It's one of many examples of a purely fraudulent pump. Musk has a history of doing this. His "solar roofs" display was pure fakery on a grand scale to sell the acquisition of SCTY. He's been leaking China factory deals since 2014.

Now he lies and claims the factory will be built and production underway by the end of the year. This is a pure lie and he knows it; it's impossible to do.

This is the same total loser who said:

- We're going to have an alien dreadnought with "air friction limited" robots, then failed so badly at that he hand made shoddy cars in a tent while Tesla "was weeks away from dying" because of his utter stupidity and hubris.

- "What people should have zero doubt about, and I mean zero, is that Tesla will produce 10,000 Model 3s a week by the end of 2018".

The Chinese factory isn't going to happen. Sure they might build a shed for $30 million but they're not building cars there. There's no capex allocated for it. No SEC filings. Like the solar roofs fraud, he put on a big show to keep the stock pumped and get Chinese favors and maybe pull in Chinese investment money.

Your assessment will be different if you look at the history of Musk being a liar and a fraud. He's lied and pumped dozens of times on dozens of things that never eventuated, from "full autonomy" by 2017 which he charged $3000/unit for pure vaporware that could never be delivered, to "$420 funding secured" to Chinese factory agreements and on and on.

He's the greatest fraud of this decade and it's not close.
"The Chinese factory isn't going to happen"

#prayforsayer

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
There will always be losers and true believers who baghold to the bottom and buy after bankruptcy. This was enough however to gut even the semi sane bulls and particularly institutional holders who can read what Elon plainly told them - that profitability is dead and cannot be reached even with $60K ASP cars and growth killing cuts, that high end orders are soon used up, and that they have no viable path to profitability at even $45K cars
"No viable path to profitability at even $45K cars"

#prayforsayer

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
The guy who doesn't appear to trade Tesla and spends 418 posts white knighting a liar and fraud calls the guy who has 13 posts "obsessed" with Tesla.




Amazing stuff.

The iPace already wipes the floor with the piece of **** Model X on its first attempt. That's why it's crushing Tesla in many European countries. The carmakers can easily beat Tesla at their own game, that you think otherwise is comical. We have proof right there in the iPace.


You're insane. A carmaker that makes 300K cars into a pool of 80 million isn't disrupting anything. That's 0.4% for ****'s sake. 2018 was the end of a long up cycle in a cyclical business. Tesla is not even disrupting the tiny EV market! That's been growing at 40%/year for a long time and continues to - nothing Tesla is doing is making any difference or will make any difference. It's pure headlines and hype. Tesla are irrelevant and so is Musk. Battery economics - which are independent of Tesla - drive the EV industry and nothing else matters.
The Ipace is coming folks..... IPACE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#prayforsayer

Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
Really quality video of the China GF (wink)

I can’t validate the date it was taken but this isn’t the first one to surface.

https://twitter.com/shanghaijayin/st...982127104?s=21
Would you like an updated video pal? I can even get you a few of the other factories as well. Let me know bud ok?

#prayforsyndr0me

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
This is the only thing that matters imo. In super frothy mania markets, it's always the bull**** artists, conmen, fairytale promises who get bought up the most. As long as the overall market is in orgasm mode, TSLA stock will climb back to the top of the range in the short term.

Longer term, as soon as liquidity dries up the shares will be worth exactly zero.
"shares will be worth exactly zero"

#prayforshuffle

Quote:
Originally Posted by case3
New round of price cuts in, second time this year. The price at which the market can 'clear' is up in the air still, but signs suggest they will have to go much deeper as inventory ages and cash dwindles.

-Model 3 isn't really a cross-shopped purchase in the same way others are. Camry can cut $1,100 vs Accord and create a material demand shift to steal sales. M3 doesn't have this same element.

-Price is still in the premium range, $1k off a 19k Honda allows people to actually buy the car. The curve for 44k shoppers is naturally flatter.

-80%+ demand fall off signals a structural issue.

My guess is only discounts deep enough to shift from 'enticing' potential purchases to 'allowing' purchases will create enough demand. Given income and margin from the last 2 quarters, this price will be a huge loser. I simply can't see anyway out of this for them, added a short at 324 today.

-
"80%+ demand fall off"

How'd those shorts do?

#prayforcase3

Rivian!!!!

Does anyone know where I can buy one?

#prayfordidace

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Meanwhile, there are 20K total lifetime M3 orders in Europe (up from 14K at the start of January) and close to none in China. And the above delivery times aren't just inventory, they're the same for highly configured models that are custom built.

Big money will have their eye on these numbers. You can't fake delivery times and you can't fake shipping to Europe or China. So we have hard objective numbers about demand and they look awful.

When profitable M3 demand is dead, then what? Does Tesla start making cars at a big loss per car again? That worked fine when they were selling 500 to 1000 cars per week and could secondary and mortgage and suck up taxpayer funds to the tune of 10s of billions of dollars to cover the losses on every car, which has been their business model since inception. But 5000 cars a week is 5x the loss rate, with everything already mortgaged.

And if no one wants a $43K Model 3, will enough of them want a $35K Model 3?

Perhaps this is simply seasonal, but I don't believe it. Tesla were screaming out for buyers in traditionally big November/December when they were hitting every lead they possibly could by phone and email and offering immediate delivery. With a $7500 tax credit. I think the only rational take is that M3 demand is dead in the US.
"Demand is dead in the US"

#prayforsayer
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12-23-2020 , 07:39 PM
You realize demand death happened and we made a fortune short Tesla on these theses, right? That the shorts made more than the longs and with far less risk?

You realize that Tesla was weeks away from bankruptcy - according to the CEO himself. The thesis was excellent and profitable. Just because Musk pulled out a hail Mary giant fraud, where he claimed:

1. 1 million autonomous robotaxis in 2020 on the roads, pulling in $10 billion in profit for Tesla.
2. Fully Self Driving feature complete by the end of 2019
3. Tesla cars will appreciate 5x in 2020

And had a bunch of losers believe him and buy up the stock and his cars, doesn't mean the thesis was good. That's all that happened - that and vast sums of Chinese money right when he needed it (I'd guess for US classified SpaceX secrets).

His situation got so desperate he was calling anyone with money begging for a meeting to buy him out before it all collapsed. Even Apple, who Musk wanted to sell it to for less than 1/10th of its current value:



Where do you think he went after he was turned down by everyone sane and near collapse? China is where. What did he have to sell for their billions in fresh funds to keep him alive? SpaceX secrets. Nothing else. And indeed, after the China funds and demand recovery from deep lows, I advised to cover at the bottom and even get long (at $39). The thesis was great and the exit was great.

If you had a thesis that "Musk's giant Fully Self Driving fraud will convince people to buy up his stock in a giant bubble", then congrats. Otherwise you had a horrible thesis and got lucky.

If there's one thing the shorts have gotten wrong, it's the magnitude of this bubble since corona lows (which we 10 bagged on the way down, thank you very much). Truly extraordinary and I thought there were some good shorts at much lower prices than now. But like pets.com, Enron and other trash, fraud creates insane bubbles and the bigger the trash the more it runs when money is being printed hand over fist and retails are pouring into the market.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 12-23-2020 at 07:50 PM.
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12-23-2020 , 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
How many Tesla bulls have driven the e-tron, Taycan, Mustang Mach-E, etc? There are plenty of other EVs that are just as fun to drive.. the only Tesla moat at this point is the cult.

I owned an Etron. Its not even close to the same technology..... Its basically just a Prius.

I test drove the Taycan....it was cool.
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12-23-2020 , 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
How many Tesla bulls have driven the e-tron, Taycan, Mustang Mach-E, etc? There are plenty of other EVs that are just as fun to drive.. the only Tesla moat at this point is the cult.
Feel free to review them if you have owned/driven them. I have not, but I doubt that I would want to trade in my Model X for one. They lack autopilot and supercharger network, which is the two features I care about the most. If you had owned a 2020 Tesla for a few weeks I think you would agree.
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