You realize demand death happened and we made a fortune short Tesla on these theses, right? That the shorts made more than the longs and with far less risk?
You realize that Tesla was weeks away from bankruptcy - according to the CEO himself. The thesis was excellent and profitable. Just because Musk pulled out a hail Mary giant fraud, where he claimed:
1. 1 million autonomous robotaxis in 2020 on the roads, pulling in $10 billion in profit for Tesla.
2. Fully Self Driving feature complete by the end of 2019
3. Tesla cars will appreciate 5x in 2020
And had a bunch of losers believe him and buy up the stock and his cars, doesn't mean the thesis was good. That's all that happened - that and vast sums of Chinese money right when he needed it (I'd guess for US classified SpaceX secrets).
His situation got so desperate he was calling anyone with money begging for a meeting to buy him out before it all collapsed. Even Apple, who Musk wanted to sell it to for less than 1/10th of its current value:
Where do you think he went after he was turned down by everyone sane and near collapse? China is where. What did he have to sell for their billions in fresh funds to keep him alive? SpaceX secrets. Nothing else. And indeed, after the China funds and demand recovery from deep lows, I advised to cover at the bottom and even get long (at $39). The thesis was great and the exit was great.
If you had a thesis that "Musk's giant Fully Self Driving fraud will convince people to buy up his stock in a giant bubble", then congrats. Otherwise you had a horrible thesis and got lucky.
If there's one thing the shorts have gotten wrong, it's the magnitude of this bubble since corona lows (which we 10 bagged on the way down, thank you very much). Truly extraordinary and I thought there were some good shorts at much lower prices than now. But like pets.com, Enron and other trash, fraud creates insane bubbles and the bigger the trash the more it runs when money is being printed hand over fist and retails are pouring into the market.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 12-23-2020 at 07:50 PM.