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12-16-2020 , 04:29 PM

#13476

chytry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by heltok

Nice semantics bending skillz you got there. If only you could find a way to convert them into alpha.

Is 2019 and 2020 the same number in your world?

Quote

12-17-2020 , 12:23 AM

#13477

heltok

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,695

This is close to what I am expecting for Q4 ER:

Quote

12-17-2020 , 12:47 PM

#13478

n00b590

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 978

Quote:

Originally Posted by heltok

This is close to what I am expecting for Q4 ER:

55K Fremont Model Y? On what planet?

For comparison, @TroyTeslike has 37K: https://mobile.twitter.com/TroyTesli...74674709442560

Quote

12-17-2020 , 03:03 PM

#13479

BT2

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 4,469

TSLA could have a big drop after quadruple witching and SPX and ETF buying pressure dissipates. I predict that it goes below 500 and perhaps below 400 maybe next week or in late Dec or Jan. Bulls can sell at $648 and buy the dip in a few weeks. Bears need to be careful, a big FSD update could rocket it back up.

Quote

12-17-2020 , 07:37 PM

#13480

Bullrun

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by BT2

Waiting for the impact of a FSD beta tester getting t-boned. The videos are fascinating because it’s making great calls at times and total nonsense moves at others.

But I might buy a car cus they are super fun.

Position: none, enjoying the thread

Quote

12-18-2020 , 04:28 AM

#13481

thethrill009

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 830

Exactly zero cars on the road will have solid state batteries in 2023.

You're welcome.

Quote

12-18-2020 , 09:53 AM

#13482

chytry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethrill009

Exactly zero cars on the road will have solid state batteries in 2023.

You're welcome.

or level 5 for that matter

Quote

12-18-2020 , 10:40 AM

#13483

Xkf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 30,166

rippin today

Quote

12-18-2020 , 05:38 PM

#13484

karamazonk

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 4,626

Not sure what was more epic, the Lord of the Rings trilogy or TSLA's power hour today.

I got lucky af. Bought shares in the late afternoon around 660 expecting a pump to end the day. Held through the downturn. Set a limit order to sell at 669.99 towards the close and got a fill in that insane 695.0 candle lol.

Quote

12-18-2020 , 10:52 PM

#13485

snowie963

banned

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 1,484

Yea it was so weird, I was considering buying calls in the last half hour but didn’t ask i need to wait a minute to authorize such short expirations so I just watched from the sidelines. I read something on wsb that the buying would come in the last few minutes, I can’t get any of the option results on my online banking for the day, TD was weird showing wrong percentage changes for spy all day as well.

Quote

12-19-2020 , 02:49 AM

#13486

heltok

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,695

Quote:

Originally Posted by karamazonk

Woke up super early, set limit orders at 675, 699, 750. The first one got filled at 695, in hindsight I should have just used one limit order for all of them.

Pretty awesome arbitrage moment! Being a daytrader is fun!

Also Tesla is probably broke:
https://electrek.co/2020/12/18/tesla...llion-deposit/

And Model Y has started production from the mud field:

Thank god for Robinhood kids making us fishy bulls rich!

Quote

12-19-2020 , 05:47 PM

#13487

theviolator

journeyman

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 332

I think this is a pretty good take. Plus middle of this year some real competition hits in the US with cars that get the $7500 tax credit which TSLA has maxxed out.

https://twitter.com/SqueezeMetrics/s...34552192868352

Quote

12-19-2020 , 06:11 PM

#13488

heltok

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,695

Quote:

Originally Posted by n00b590

55K Fremont Model Y? On what planet?

For comparison, @TroyTeslike has 37K: https://mobile.twitter.com/TroyTesli...74674709442560

Even less now. Good point, we will see soon who was least wrong.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TroyTesli...34780131516416

Last edited by heltok; 12-19-2020 at 06:16 PM.

Quote

12-20-2020 , 01:25 AM

#13489

GodgersWOAT

banned

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 3,524

Bears hibernating for the winter.

Quote

12-20-2020 , 03:35 PM

#13490

WorldBoFree

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,599

Does the sky high stock price not give Tesla a major competitive advantage over their peers?

Quote

12-20-2020 , 05:59 PM

#13491

Wittgenheiny

adept

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 776

Market prices are no longer based on valuation, but social media sentiment.

Quote from my physiotherapist:

Quote:

I mean ya, it's expensive, but ****. The guy launches rockets into space and is banging a pop star. He invented paypal for chrissakes!

Quote

12-20-2020 , 09:56 PM

#13492

snowie963

banned

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 1,484

Tesla didn't actually close at 695 did it? TD is showing this as close price and a weekly ATM put at $60. That can't be right can it? Seems like it should be closer to 665 based on the other weekly prices.

Quote

12-20-2020 , 10:40 PM

#13493

karamazonk

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 4,626

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowie963

Yeah, it closed at 695, even if not obvious on the chart. It all happened very quickly.

Quote

12-21-2020 , 03:51 AM

#13494

heltok

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,695

Quote:

Originally Posted by WorldBoFree

Does the sky high stock price not give Tesla a major competitive advantage over their peers?

I am hearing that some Tesla employees are using their stock compensation to buy themselves a Tesla.

They can raise cash and use cash to expand factories and R&D. But there is a limit to how fast they can scale without incurring negative second order effects. Growing 40-100%/year for the next 10 years is probably the max they can do, raising more cash and aiming for 100-200%/year is probably not wise.

It also has a halo effect, more people talk about Tesla, some of these are converted into vehicle sales. Suppliers are more willing to work with them and give them preferrential treatment and some engineers feel more willing to work for them.

Quote

12-21-2020 , 05:09 AM

#13495

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

I'm waiting for after the 21st (well, the 18th really but the 21st is the headline S&P inclusion date). Since the S&P announcement I've been praying it runs up so it makes for a nice short around the announcement date. Going good so far but sadly Tesla got caught up in the momo crap dump today.

This played out as expected, time to short this trash stock now at $660 (if you didn't do on Friday's close). Only losers will be holding Tesla from this point forward.

Quote

12-21-2020 , 05:51 AM

#13496

stinkypete

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

If that was your thesis, going short with a limit on close order Friday would have been the clear play. I sold my long at the close (695) and then some more at 676 but am out now at 664. Elon is frantically looking for the next pump and I think FSD leasing or a yuge BTC purchase (given the average intelligence of the tesla long) might do it. I'll be watching Elon's twitter closely tho.

In any case, 2021 should be a disastrous year for the core business and the stock is still like 90% overvalued

Quote

12-21-2020 , 05:56 AM

#13497

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

Quote:

Originally Posted by stinkypete

Elon is frantically looking for the next pump and I think FSD leasing or a yuge BTC Dogecoin purchase (given the average intelligence of the tesla long) might do it.

wow, very pump, much FSD, so scare

Quote

12-21-2020 , 09:54 AM

#13498

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 20,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by heltok

Growing 40-100%/year for the next 10 years is probably the max they can do.

You think that in 10 years Tesla could capture 25% of the world's car market?

Quote

12-21-2020 , 10:42 AM

#13499

heltok

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,695

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

You think that in 10 years Tesla could capture 25% of the world's car market?

Could sure. Its not like FTL. And they certainly plan to do it according to what they presented at battery day. Will they? I doubt it, but I think the probability is nonzero and even if the fall short of it I still see upside.

I will guess 10M vehicles per year 2030. The first 2M/year should go pretty fast, maybe reach that pace by* 2022-2023, but then I expect demand to start to saturate.